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Met Winter Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I disagree, and explained my reasons why already. More going on than just in the polar regions here.

I read them and I disagree. You have D/L forcing which is forcing that NEG W near AK it is pulling the POS back way west into W Canada.

HP is forced to roll off the back side of that ridge and thru the lakes.

The source region is colder in nature and does not modify .

It's why you see the guidance say N at 2m days 11 thru 15 only get colder days 5 thru 10.

11 thru 15 trend toward N and not mild IMO.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I still think the second half of the winter will produce one or two good snowfalls...Temperatures get colder but by how much?...like I said before a February that is ten degrees above last year is still below average...

 

We just need that persistent trough that has been stuck in the West since May to kick out to the Southeastern

US second half of January and beyond to make things more interesting.

 

This is the look that you want to see verify.

 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

We just need that persistent trough that has been stuck in the West since May to kick out to the Southeastern

US second half of January and beyond to make things more interesting.

 

This is the look that you want to see verify.

 

attachicon.gifcahgt_anom.1.gif

You are almost home Chris. You developed the NEG right where you wanted it and that POS is taking up residence West of HB , Ala the Euro and not the CFS .

As the jet reaches it's max that trough comes out , it's on the week 3 4 and 5 of the ensemble weeklies.

I think you will see that entire look in the means by week 3 in Jan

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/changes-ecmwf-model/cycle-41r1

 

These are the new Euro ensemble weekly ensembles  

They are the Euro new 45 day ensembles that replace the weeklies . 

 

Medium-range/monthly ensemble (ENS)

  • LegB extended to 46 days (instead of 32) on Mondays and Thursday (at 00UTC).
  • Twice weekly 11-member re-forecasts.
 

Here are the 1st 7 days Day 7 - 14  offer 1 opportunity to be slightly above N , but look at where that NEG is , those are BS  false  heights east of the lakes , that will prob correct too . Then we re fire and lock in .

The Euro suggest not only are the 1st 7 days a PATTERN CHANGE but Jan 14- Feb 5 are exactly what the Euro seasonal was showing since Sept. 

MERRY CHRISTMAS .

Almost home.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

You are almost home Chris. You developed the NEG right where you wanted it and that POS is taking up residence West of HB , Ala the Euro and not the CFS .

As the jet reaches it's max that trough comes out , it's on the week 3 4 and 5 of the ensemble weeklies.

I think you will see that entire look in the means by week 3 in Jan

 

The next few extended EPS runs should be interesting to see since the changes in the 6-10 and 8-14 need time

to be reflected in later runs. But some point beyond the 15th of January into early February is when you would

want to start to see the heights lowering over the Southeast. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

I am sticking to my original call of February being the real winter month. The epic blowtorch is over for sure, but I see the next several weeks of January being near normal to above normal with temps, a mild up possibly mid month. I also see it as having below normal snow/dry. I think the tail end of January is when the final flip to a true winter pattern starts for February. Overall I think next month will be above normal for temps +2 - +3 and below normal snowfall

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted

Congratulations.   But one day 'does not a trend make'.  That is why there is a daily output and a 5 day and 10 day average for the CFS.

When the 5 and 10 day keel over I will believe it (if it makes meteorological sense).   Meanwhile the experimental 60 day CFS analog still never has the mean value line dip below the normal line for the duration around here.    After Jan. 20 about 70% of the members are still favoring above normal.

 

The GFS often moves a potential storm hundreds of miles from the same run 24hrs. earlier.  Probably both are wrong.

 

More timely, today's SST @ CI is 53 or +9.   Yesterday it was 52----should I now assume it is on the way up and will be 54 tomorrow---or is it better to use the travelling 5 day average to predict tomorrow.

 

But clearly something kick started the model into the right direction.   Heights are lower in the southerly jet.  I am in the wait and see camp.

Man, the sarcasm and snottiness. Pb,along with others contribute,regularly throughout the year, with amazing informational and detailed discussions that is both technical and understandable. I haven't had doubts or many questions ever of the, so called "old timers" ,forum wise.

I understand your newer here and have lurked here as you say, similar to how I joined. Yes,you have knowledge to ask extent of how to read a model or models,but struggle to grasp how some of your statements/assessments are not totally true. Why not reach out to someone like pb and talk about how he goes about doing it and trying to understand why he and others see the opposite? I'm sure he or others would be happy to hear how you have come up with your view as well. If we all took a minute to read each others posts, and or model data/ information, we can easily have a much more constructive way of disagreeing/debating them bashing each other.

But there's are some who strictly post just to get others angry.. I don't doubt that at all!

I'm pretty sure we're all adults,though we should act it.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Cool shot early Jan that's transient followed by more warming. There's nothing that indicates a sustained pattern for even near normal temps. AO/NAO stay positive.

Canadian ensembles and CFS for Jan. The euro ensembles have also been shuffling back and forth the past few days which makes for a low confidence forecast.

Priceless.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Looks like we should probably wait until mid-late Jan (after this "flip" is supposed to have taken place) before we hand out awards and apologies.

The flip starts Jan 2. Not transient. Not a week. The entire 500 mb field has FLIPPED.

Not just on the Euro but the GFS

Not Just on the weeklies , but now the CFS sees it.

FLIPPED..... that battle has been won.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

The flip starts Jan 2. Not transient. Not a week. The entire 500 mb field has FLIPPED.

Not just on the Euro but the GFS

Not Just on the weeklies , but now the CFS sees it.

FLIPPED..... that battle has been won.

 

All of which have a  long-term error rate of ~0% right?  Do you trust your VAR models projected 5+ years, even IF you run 2000+ MC simulations?

 

No.

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

Well that is the kind of stats you are going to come up with when you are @SIGMA 8+ above/below any recent 30 year normal.

Let us stop trying to predict the future till we figure what happened in December.

If this were a chemistry lab experiment result, your professor would remind you that the students at this college have done this exact experiment some 30,000 times in the last 138 years and nobody, I mean absolutely no student, ever got a result close to yours!

So go figure out what went wrong or what you did wrong,  and do it over correctly.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

I've been on these boards a long time, and I've seen more than enough people get burned by framing forecasts as more statements of established fact rather than prediction.  If you are right, congrats, your reasoning yielded a correct assessment.  But framing a forecast like you are has burned many a forecaster.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

? The fact is any model has an error function. We use all sorts of solvers or algos to minimize error in quant models, but it's still there.

You can't forecast like that. The guidance has collapsed into a complete change at 500mb by jan.2nd

How could I trade NG wait until after it verified.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

How can anyone be calling PB out on anything at this point. He's owned the forecast since the Nino started raging and he even owned OSU. What more can the guy do? :lol:

I don't know enough to call anyone out, and I hope PB is onto something; this morning I took a photo of a tomato seedling growing outside. That just ain't right. In any event, seems like people here like using investment stats as some kind of comparison. Don't know about that, but as a former fisherman I watched scientists try to predict what kind of season we might have for say, stripers or fluke, and come up wrong quite a bit. They would assure us a stock is in rebound, and the fishing would still suck. They would say a fish is in precipitous decline, and we'd be catching good numbers of them. There are variables they couldn't account for, but they made guesses as to what would happen and made restrictions based on those guesses. And ruined a lot of livelihoods, I might add. NOAA also blew the forecasts a lot, and we'd stay tied up expecting a gale that never came, or went out in 10-15 knots that were supposed to be NW but turned to NE at 15-20. People can get killed like that. So I would say, maybe PB, DT, HM got the right idea, maybe Forky does. But statistically, do we get 3 snowy winters in a row very often?

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=12-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1

I will let you decide, what type of large scale pattern change you see here :pepsi:

give it a few minutes to cycle out

This shows a huge Scandinavian ridge and much higher heights out west with NYC consistently below 0C at 850mb. Definitely a significant pattern change.
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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

This shows a huge Scandinavian ridge and much higher heights out west with NYC consistently below 0C at 850mb. Definitely a significant pattern change.

Correct. There is absolutely zero guidance which would indicate that the upcoming pattern will flip back to anything remotely close to what we just had and there is plenty of guidance indicating it will lock in with the trough over the SE and with active STJ. Jan 20th and on...we should be rocking. Still see Central Park ending with ~35" of snow.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The idea from 10 days ago were as follows. Lucky one only has to start 10 pages ago and not in the beginning of the thread.

Jan 2 - 7 N
Jan 7 - 12 plus 2 . Watch the stability of the air mass , it probably beats the models.
The complete flip is at 500 mb by the 2nd .


No torch
but plus a few at KNYC when the N high is 38 over a 10 day period vs 30 days of plus 12.
Neg headed W in AK
The ridge would pull back into W Canada
Zero mention of snow 

Many fought this. Here's the next battle is once to mid month the trough is in the east and by week 3 the STJ is in the SE.

I will let Tom and Wolf fight the SSW

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

He is going to end up being right. Pattern looks great moving forward.

You are something else man. It's December 27th and you are already declaring that someone is going to definitely be right on a pattern call for all of January. I guess you can see over 5 weeks into the future when January ends and I guess there are absolutes in weather huh?
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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

You are something else man. It's December 27th and you are already declaring that someone is going to definitely be right on a pattern call for all of January. I guess you can see over 5 weeks into the future when January ends and I guess there are absolutes in weather huh?

Loltastic. Can't wait until the strat splits in a couple of weeks. I predict you run for the hills. PB and I are like a one-two punch of forecasters right now. He's focusing and owning of the 500mb flip. I'm taking on the SSW, which is actually splitting at multiple strat levels on all guidance in the 8-10 day range. HECS chances coming in just 3-4 weeks. You will be absent out of embarrassment.
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