Met Winter Banter

[wthrmn654]

I've never looked at the CFS at all but it seems to me what it did last winter was exceptional and that is typically does not perform very well at all unless the final 2-3 days of the ensuing month, and even then it frequently can be way off.

  

https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/

 

 

Now many people are wondering how come the latest CFS models are not showing this much colder trend.   Their several reasons for this. To begin with if you are using the CFS from the CPC site it must be remember that that particular version of the CFS is based upon the last 10 days of data (and 4 times a day) so it is going to take a while to see if this trend from the EURO & CFS actually shows up on the CFS model.

 

In addition if you take a look at the Teleconnections from the CFS we see something very different. For example the PNA out to the 21st of January is quite weak and not nearly as amplified as on the other models. This is also the case with how the CFS is handling the AO which essentially keeps it neutral right through the 21st to 22nd and January.

  

Can't forget the 45 day CFS. 60-90 day CFS, too. Also, I hear the 8 month CFS forecast still has a Thu+AO/+NAO. Doesn't bode well for next Winter.

I do say we should all get lunch lol or go to a bar to drink away our stubborn warm friends lol

[PB GFI]

I've never looked at the CFS at all but it seems to me what it did last winter was exceptional and that is typically does not perform very well at all unless the final 2-3 days of the ensuing month, and even then it frequently can be way off.

 

 

It is not bad when it gets up close . but from a distance , it has had it problems .

 

 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The euro split the PV today at 30hpa. The gfs has been splitting it at 50hpa for multiple runs. Initially, I thought the PV was too stout to allow for a split but I think it's clear a split is now more likely. It isn't a matter of 'if' but when.

And this warming isn't even the main event. Second week of January, say goodbye to this 'uber' PV. I am more confident than ever in a cold and snowy February. I really do not understand these met calls for a return to a torch beyond week 2. I mean, there isn't any evidence right now to support that. I am way more concerned about the dormant STJ than I am temps for the second half.

[PB GFI]

     I do say we should all get lunch lol or go to a bar to drink away our stubborn warm friends lol

 

 

We don`t dismiss warm guidance . If the consensus is warm that needs to be opined on. 

Nov/Dec were seen warm but verified so warm it  blew apart the guidance . 

 

We need opposing view points here , it would suck if we all thought the same way . All some of say is present guidance , so we can discuss that`s all .   

But never dismiss it . 

[MJO812]

The euro split the PV today at 30hpa. The gfs has been splitting it at 50hpa for multiple runs. Initially, I thought the PV was too stout to allow for a split but I think it's clear a split is now more likely. It isn't a matter of 'if' but when.

And this warming isn't even the main event. Second week of January, say goodbye to this 'uber' PV. I am more confident than ever in a cold and snowy February. I really do not understand these met calls for a return to a torch beyond week 2. I mean, there isn't any evidence right now to support that. I am way more concerned about the dormant STJ than I am temps for the second half.

18z GEFS destroys the PV. The models as of now are showing a lot of northern stream energy. I would love to see the STJ get active with the -AO and +PNA pattern that is modeled.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

18z GEFS destroys the PV. The models as of now are showing a lot of northern stream energy. I would love to see the STJ get active with the -AO and +PNA pattern that is modeled.

Yes. Should really see things get more active once the GoA low retrogrades to that more favorable position which promotes those index values.

[brooklynwx99]

I'm not sure what's not to like about what's progged in the 10-15 day range. Blocking starts to develop around 240h, and it matures throughout the end of the run. The Aleutian low stays in a great spot, and split flow looks to be developing as well. Even though the overall trough axis is too far east for development for coastal systems at the time, the overall pattern is very encouraging for a colder and possibly snowier January. It'll definitely be interesting to see Atlantic and Pacific blocking combined with a strong STJ. Also, further down the line, the stratosphere continues to get perturbed, and displacement is seen even at 10 mb. For now, the possible development of blocking in the EPO, AO, NAO regions, and the development of ridging in the PNA region will allow for a pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, and certainly one that is better than the one that we have now. Just be patient. 

[PB GFI]

Day 14 - 21 , This too should correct W , 

 

 

 

I am not sure why the Euro continues to do this , but it something that has been easy to pick up on .

The ENSEMBLE period extends a few days past this 5 day mean , but you can see how we end on DAY 15 , so when we pull this mean up in 2 more days , the trough in the means for the same time is prob right over the east .

 

Look at where that NEG is, it has to pull that ridge back .  The Euro has spot on in the PAC but stinks on the EC.

If you position that  NEG there S of AK ,  N to B should develop in the east . 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I'm not sure what's not to like about what's progged in the 10-15 day range. Blocking starts to develop around 240h, and it matures throughout the end of the run. The Aleutian low stays in a great spot, and split flow looks to be developing as well. Even though the overall trough axis is too far east for development for coastal systems at the time, the overall pattern is very encouraging for a colder and possibly snowier January. It'll definitely be interesting to see Atlantic and Pacific blocking combined with a strong STJ. Also, further down the line, the stratosphere continues to get perturbed, and displacement is seen even at 10 mb. For now, the possible development of blocking in the EPO, AO, NAO regions, and the development of ridging in the PNA region will allow for a pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, and certainly one that is better than the one that we have now. Just be patient.

Bravo!

[SnoSki14]

As long as this continues to evolve then February will turn out very good. January may turn colder but may be drier as well.

Since most are looking at snow chances then they may still have to wait a few weeks before those opportunities pop up. Hopefully there's no opposing correction.

[PB GFI]

As long as this continues to evolve then February will turn out very good. January may turn colder but may be drier as well.

Since most are looking at snow chances then they may still have to wait a few weeks before those opportunities pop up.

 

Early Jan is not wet .  I have only argued a pattern change with temps back to N on the EC .

 But we do FLIP once the calendar does.   That is a lot earlier than many believed just 5 days ago . 

 

I think the pattern offers promise after week 3 as the trough axis here is too far east .

 

One at a time . 

[SnoSki14]

Early Jan is not wet . I have only argued a pattern change with temps back to N on the EC .

But we do FLIP once the calendar does.

I think the pattern offers promise after week 3 as the trough axis here is too far east .

One at a time .

Things are much more encouraging after this torrid stretch, I just hope things don't take a step back. Several mets like DT are on board too though.

[forkyfork]

it's a change from a horrendous pattern to a meh pattern

[PB GFI]

Things are much more encouraging after this torrid stretch, I just hope things don't take a step back. Several mets like DT are on board too though.

 

 

We may run the table all the way through . A week of BN then 3 days AN and not because the ridge pops back in , but because we are dry over bare ground . But those  - 850s never disappear .

 

Brutal dry cold is useless . low 40s with sun are just fine , but if SLP attacks its cold enough for snow . 

[forkyfork]

can't wait

 

[PB GFI]

can't wait

Now the rest of the story ,

+ 1 surrounding that + 2 over 5 days . Low 40`s with sun . The worm has turned .

That means the park splits are probably 42/29 so most outside the city are in the 30s for most of their day.

[forkyfork]

celsius. so 5f above normal 

[forkyfork]

and it has been biased cold

[PB GFI]

Jan 8 - 3 to -5 @ 850

Lets say plus 4 - There is a lot of plus 1 surrounding that plus 2 above . It`s because its sunny and dry . The ridge is gone, these - never leave . The 500 mb field has flipped .

The 5 days period before is N

[PB GFI]

Stick plus 3 to 4 on this . A bit colder away from KNYC .

That is the warmest 5 day period we see over that 15 day stretch . The front 5 are N and the day 15 Euro is heading towards the trough in the east .

Not cold , but N and after this Dec it will feel cold.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

0z euro PV split at 30 and 50hpa. Close at 10.

[PB GFI]

Pb why do you engage him?

 

 

He has been good in the early going . He has at least jumped into the disco here . In the past it would jab and run , this Forky jabs and stays .

 

Better version if you ask me .

 

 

If MEH means N to plus 2 over a 10 day stretch (  5 days N 5 days plus 4) in early Jan with the ridge gone , than we will have to call this flip a success as there are - 850s overhead , so if something does comes through the flow at least we are in the game . I think what is coming after this is the real story and a much better look overall .

 

We may have stolen the first 10 days of Jan away from what was originally forecast to be an extension of the torch .

[bluewave]

The CFS is into it's typical adjustment period during the last few days of the month.

That's why it doesn't pay to start looking at the CFS until the last few days of the

month for the following month.

 

 

[Morris]

The CFS is into it's typical adjustment period during the last few days of the month.

That's why it doesn't pay to start looking at the CFS until the last few days of the

month for the following month.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20151227.201601.gif

CFSv2.NaT2m.20151225.201601.gif

They seem like a joke with such huge changes.

[PB GFI]

Look,  let me make it clear that I want the cold and snow!  I am just a realist and I do not believe any blog member or combination thereof, are going to do better than the all encompassing CFS, as stinky as it is, in the long run.    Talking about atmospheric patterns which may or not occur and if they do, may or may not produce the result we all desire, is silly too since U 2 are using the same computer models with their inherent errors.

If Jan. and/or Feb. are to come in negative----at least one of their attendant weeklies will have to go negative.   Show me that negative weekly.  I am being  blinded by the bright purples that have covered up to about 2 Million Sq. Miles at times and wish to get some 'snow blindness' instead.

The weeklies do not look good nor do any of the next 8 months go negative.   In June the next 8 months did not look good already.

Do not look now---but the Spring/Summer is looking warmer by a degree over other recent outputs.   This is becoming scary as CI water temp. is 52 and showing as +8.   Will I get any ocean relief in summer 2016?

 

 

Hopefully this has changed your mind , It` not the 1st time ,

 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Lol Cik. Hopefully you learn from this. Bluewave is spot on as usual.

[bluewave]

They seem like a joke with such huge changes.

 

The CFS is reactive to the changes in the short term which it often can't see until the last few days

of the month. Even the Euro weeklies will have to react to quick changes in the 6-10 and 8-14

that weren't indicated weeks 3 and 4 previously. That's why changes in the near term can have 

such big ripple effects when extended longer term. It would be nice if all monthly model forecasts

were held until the last few days of the month.

[SnoSki14]

Talk about a huge change going from +20, +30 departures to maybe +5 or less type stuff only to gradually trend even colder.

So the general public will be in for a reality check.

[Doorman]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

Some people believe they can turn a prostitute into a princess......

 

oh canada

[PB GFI]

Lol Cik. Hopefully you learn from this. Bluewave is spot on as usual.

Cik

Global W

Hiatus

SnoSki

Snowman

Were all on board with the CFS and argued against and totally dismissed the pattern change.