Sundog Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm all for GW discussion. Just not mixed with snow pattern analysis. Every time I see a block in the means I do not need 3 or 4 of the same posters reminding me how it's likely only temporary and we'll be torching again in no time. It's silly, immature and irrelevant. Indeed I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Deterministic vs probabilistic modeling. A lot of people don't understand the difference. You're an accomplished investor so you know the short term ups and downs are embedded in a upward long term trend. I'm happy you mentioned that in your post, it's a lot more than some others have done. The trend is higher. Not sure how we pinch off the momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Deterministic vs probabilistic modeling. A lot of people don't understand the difference. You're an accomplished investor so you know the short term ups and downs are embedded in a upward long term trend. I'm happy you mentioned that in your post, it's a lot more than some others have done. You don't need to be an investor to get that, anyone who is educated, and not just in the hard sciences, should get that concept. Heck, you don't even need to be educated, really, just well informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Indeed I agree. I don't think the torch posts are necessarily about global warming, but global warming is a subject that simply cannot be avoided on a weather site. Not in the banter section at least. Maybe in a particular storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Indeed I agree. By the way,Sundog, what's up with the dead bird? I been meaning to ask about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Jeez, I just realize I don't comment more about idiots then I do about weather lol! If only I took more time to go thru the data and crap! I mean I did take a weather course in college lol and have only been fascinated with it since I was 8. In school I was called weatherman cause I usually was right ha! Or weathermyer instead of bredemeyer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 DT is barking for a big pattern change mid January. He states its going to get wild in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Jeez, I just realize I don't comment more about idiots then I do about weather lol! If only I took more time to go thru the data and crap! I mean I did take a weather course in college lol and have only been fascinated with it since I was 8. In school I was called weatherman cause I usually was right ha! Or weathermyer instead of bredemeyer lol I'm so old that I remember when "lol" wasn't a form of punctuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm so old that I remember when "lol" wasn't a form of punctuation. Thanks to freaking technology,texting etc has lead to the end of grammar and diverse vocabulary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm so old that I remember when "lol" wasn't a form of punctuation. Happy belated birthday grandpa <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Thanks to freaking technology,texting etc has lead to the end of grammar and diverse vocabulary. I still don't know half the new lingo, but language is ever changing. I mean, how many people speak Latin? But millions speak Spanish, French, and Italian, among other Latin derived tongues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Really liking the ENSO filtered MJO analogs as a playbook for the next few weeks here. Things look on track to me for cooler/more normal period right around and immediate days after new years, then likely an easing (warming) right after that. There's a cold shot or two in here, whether the NE can produce anything out of that is TBD. Will be interesting to track how closely the obs match these analogs in the next couple of weeks. Great case study unfolding here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Lol. That's HP slipping in through the lakes and exiting because of the position PNA . Those are N 850 anomalies -5 actual temp. So that's plus 2 at the surface with a trough hot on its heels. Do you know how this works ? It may be chilly, but will it deliver the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Really cold air comes down during the first week of january on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It may be chilly, but will it deliver the snow? That I have no way of knowing. My call has been a total flip at 500mb and a return to N ish at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 That I have no way of knowing. My call has been a total flip at 500mb and a return to N ish at 2m That's why we are all here, nobody wants cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Really cold air comes down during the first week of january on gfs. Really cold air comes down during the first week of january on gfs. It does, but it also looks quite dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 By the way,Sundog, what's up with the dead bird? I been meaning to ask about that. It was supposed to go against the "good luck" flying trio of birds posters had in their signatures a lot a few years ago because 2011-2012 happened and the birds didn't deliver the goods. So I figured it was time to kill off the birds and I never changed it since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yeah, that's certainly something to keep an eye on. Honestly, I really didn't think we'd see the kinds of improvements that are being modeled so quickly. And perhaps we don't, or they are being rushed a bit? The low heights in the west want to pump up a ridge in the east. I'm hopeful that what ultimately happens is a split flow with a +pna and STJ underneath. Yeah, the trough staying in the SW will pump the heights in Canada across to the Northeast. You want to see the trough that has been stuck in the West eject into the Southeast for a full pattern change. Something like that may take more time since the El Nino is still so strong. We may have a better chance at seeing that some point after January 15th when the best potential typically occurs in El Ninos. The only question every El Nino year is how much of the potential is realized. Last winter was about the best that we have ever seen post January 15th. Any snow at all before January 15th in most El Nino years is a bonus anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The 1st 10 days of Jan are looking A OK . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The 1st 10 days of Jan are looking A OK . Also looks like some split flow as well. We haven't had a -AO/NAO/EPO/+PNA pattern in a while, too. It'll be cool to see how that plays in a strong niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Also looks like some split flow as well. We haven't had a -AO/NAO/EPO/+PNA pattern in a while, too. It'll be cool to see how that plays in a strong niño. Winter is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Another view of those teleconnectios out to 15 days: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png But will the latest weeklies due out shortly pick up on any of this? This reminds me of looking at a new LIRR schedule and looking down the track for the train it says was due 30 mins. ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Another view of those teleconnectios out to 15 days: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png But will the latest weeklies due out shortly pick up on any of this? This reminds me of looking at a new LIRR schedule and looking down the track for the train it says was due 30 mins. ago. Can't forget the 45 day CFS. 60-90 day CFS, too. Also, I hear the 8 month CFS forecast still has a +AO/+NAO. Doesn't bode well for next Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/ Now many people are wondering how come the latest CFS models are not showing this much colder trend. Their several reasons for this. To begin with if you are using the CFS from the CPC site it must be remember that that particular version of the CFS is based upon the last 10 days of data (and 4 times a day) so it is going to take a while to see if this trend from the EURO & CFS actually shows up on the CFS model. In addition if you take a look at the Teleconnections from the CFS we see something very different. For example the PNA out to the 21st of January is quite weak and not nearly as amplified as on the other models. This is also the case with how the CFS is handling the AO which essentially keeps it neutral right through the 21st to 22nd and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The latest CFS now seems to see + 2c for Jan which has cooled from it`s plus 4c it saw only a week ago . So as this latest data gets into the model , you may see a trend towards N start to pop up in the guidance . As it is , it has cooled some . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Notice how it is backing the warmest anomalies shift into W Canada and AK as it picks up on the -EPO+PNA regime . The warmer that regions gets the cooler the SE and E will turn in the guidance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wow, Alaska is on fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I've never looked at the CFS at all but it seems to me what it did last winter was exceptional and that is typically does not perform very well at all unless the final 2-3 days of the ensuing month, and even then it frequently can be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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