Met Winter Banter

[donsutherland1]

How is SSW doing?  Is it reaching down to the top of the troposphere where it can affect the 500mb pattern?  I thought I understood this process,  but in 2012 it went the other way (other side of N. Pole) and Siberia, China, India, Eastern Europe but not western Europe were, frozen for 6 weeks  while we set all-time record highs.

Several points:

 

1. SSW events are poorly forecast beyond a few days. Most Rossby waves do not trigger such events. As a result, not every winter even experiences an SSW event. Moderate warming events are more frequent. Right now, no SSW event is ongoing or modeled.

2. SSW events can be bottom-up responses to blocking or top-down responses that can trigger blocking.

3. Where the polar vortex is displaced or whether it splits can have a big impact on the sensible weather outcomes. In 2012, it was displaced to the other side of the North Pole.

[SnowGoose69]

My nightmare is stepping down into a seasonably cold look in early to mid January but dry with the trough axis too far east and it ends up snowing in the Carolinas

 

It ain't gonna be snowing anytime soon in the Carolinas.  The STJ is virtually non existent.  Right now this looks to me like we are going into a pattern we had last winter in January.  Most of the winter storms will favor places from DC and north.  I think eventually MEM/ATL/RDU/CLT will see a major winter event or two but its probably going to be February 1 at the earliest.  Even in 09-10 those places which saw 3-4 events did not see the first one til nearly January 25th.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Well given the anomaly in Dec., I estimate than any combination of Jan and Feb divergences totaling +7 (say +3.5 &+3.5 or +10.0 & a -3.0) will make this the warmest winter ever.

You really are here just to push a warm global warming agenda, it's crazy. Mods should consider just creating a pinned GW thread IMO.

[donsutherland1]

Well given the anomaly in Dec., I estimate than any combination of Jan and Feb divergences totaling +7   (say +3.5 &+3.5 or +10.0 & a -3.0) will make this the warmest winter ever.

I don't think there's much disagreement that the winter as a whole (December-February) will wind up much warmer than normal. December's warmth was historic. On a standardized basis, the NYC area has never seen a month quite like December 2015, assuming the GFS/ECMWF come reasonably close to verifying for the remainder of the month.

[SnowGoose69]

Several points:

 

1. SSW events are poorly forecast beyond a few days. Most Rossby waves do not trigger such events. As a result, not every winter even experiences an SSW event. Moderate warming events are more frequent. Right now, no SSW event is ongoing or modeled.

2. SSW events can be bottom-up responses to blocking or top-down responses that can trigger blocking.

3. Where the polar vortex is displaced or whether it splits can have a big impact on the sensible weather outcomes. In 2012, it was displaced to the other side of the North Pole.

 

Historically there is a tendency for SSW events to favor NOAM more than Europe for some reason, nobody seems to know why that is the case though.

[CIK62]

I am advised not to use the CFS but I see several links to it above.  What's up besides the temperature?

[AvantHiatus]

You really are here just to push a warm global warming agenda, it's crazy. Mods should consider just creating a pinned GW thread IMO.

It's an important statistic. Regardless, we can all sleep soundly knowing it can snow in such a anomalous winter.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I'd expect the STJ to become active further north once the GoA low retrogrades.

[SnowGoose69]

My math might be off but December will average around 50 or so that is +13.  If January averages +2 (I think it will averages less than that) and February -2 that does not even put us in the top 5 warmest winters unless I'm really doing something wrong.  It won't be as easy to break 11-12 as people think IMO.

[Isotherm]

My latest post in the main board addresses a couple questions in here regarding the STJ and stratosphere:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-4?

[Stormlover74]

My math might be off but December will average around 50 or so that is +13. If January averages +2 (I think it will averages less than that) and February -2 that does not even put us in the top 5 warmest winters unless I'm really doing something wrong. It won't be as easy to break 11-12 as people think IMO.

I think January will be closer to +5, the first 10 days still look quite above normal overall

[PB GFI]

I think January will be closer to +5, the first 10 days still look quite above normal overall

Not at all.

They are N to BN .

Check out the Euro Jan 1 thru 5. BN The GFS Jan 5 thru 10. +2 at 2M

The Euro will catch the cold from the 5th thru the 10th .

The well AN ends when the year ends.

[Ericjcrash]

Chasing 5-10 flakes here. Blizzard warning in the TX panhandle calling for 5-10 foot drifts.

[Isotherm]

I don't think there's much disagreement that the winter as a whole (December-February) will wind up much warmer than normal. December's warmth was historic. On a standardized basis, the NYC area has never seen a month quite like December 2015, assuming the GFS/ECMWF come reasonably close to verifying for the remainder of the month.

 

 

The meteorological winter could still finish only slightly warmer than normal if a scenario similar to 1958 unfolds (with a one month period of well below normal temperatures / -6/-7 departures). I currently favor a near normal January and much colder than normal February. January could be colder than I think if the EPO maintains a negative modality throughout.

[PB GFI]

My latest post in the main board addresses a couple questions in here regarding the STJ and stratosphere:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-4?

Tom as always great disco/analysis.

Your 1957/58 call has been spot on with the exception of 2 weeks in Dec at 500 mb . ( nothing is 100 % alike ) .

That was a great analog picked up by you in June/July and has been very close In its warmest ENSO region and Jan SST evolution.

Our boy loved the analog so much early on , I gave you credit that he opined on it and absorbed it into their forecast .

The look of Jan 58 and the Euro weeklies are really in line.

If Feb follows 58 then the story of this winter will be one of the best turn arounds we have seen in a long time.

If the NINO does really collapse east to west than its yatzee man.

Great course Tom .

[EasternLI]

My latest post in the main board addresses a couple questions in here regarding the STJ and stratosphere:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-4?

 

Great post. Thank you for sharing.

[wthrmn654]

I really must ask/say, with the lack of respect it seems towards Mets/senior members on here who contribute with solid interpretation of models and aren't biased towards warn or cold, those who choose to ignore suggestions or replies, hard for everyone to keep there cool. Warnings should be given or something. Hate to see fighting or bickering. And unless you are well educated in weather or have gone to college for it, no one is perfect or a know it all! Questions questions questions! Ask and your questions will be answered nicely! Don't be scared that your going be wrong. No one is perfect.

[WeatherFeen2000]

I really must ask/say, with the lack of respect it seems towards Mets/senior members on here who contribute with solid interpretation of models and aren't biased towards warn or cold, those who choose to ignore suggestions or replies, hard for everyone to keep there cool. Warnings should be given or something. Hate to see fighting or bickering. And unless you are well educated in weather or have gone to college for it, no one is perfect or a know it all! Questions questions questions! Ask and your questions will be answered nicely! Don't be scared that your going be wrong. No one is perfect.

i just personally don't like forky, snowman19 aka hurricanetracker and snowski kinda annoys me? Name the people that you don't like? Also forky where is my money or at least give me a you won bro Central Park saw snow flurries last Saturday fwiw

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

i just personally don't like forky, snowman19 aka hurricanetracker and snowski kinda annoys me? Name the people that you don't like? Also forky where is my money or at least give me a you won bro Central Park saw snow flurries last Saturday fwiw

Oh man!!!

Come on dude don't get banned your way too funny

[PB GFI]

Oh man!!!

Come on dude don't get banned ( AGAIN ) your way too funny

FYP

[MJO812]

I'd expect the STJ to become active further north once the GoA low retrogrades.

It should also get better when the mjo goes into 8-1

[AvantHiatus]

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Are you asking for analysis? It looks good to me though slightly less so then previous runs.

Besides that, the Euro actually splits the PV for the first time at 30hpa today.

[PB GFI]

Lol. That's HP slipping in through the lakes and exiting because of the position PNA . Those are N 850 anomalies -5 actual temp.

So that's plus 2 at the surface with a trough hot on its heels.

Do you know how this works ?

[donsutherland1]

The meteorological winter could still finish only slightly warmer than normal if a scenario similar to 1958 unfolds (with a one month period of well below normal temperatures / -6/-7 departures). I currently favor a near normal January and much colder than normal February. January could be colder than I think if the EPO maintains a negative modality throughout.

That's true. I agree with you that February will probably be our coldest winter month relative to normal. It will be interesting to see if things go all the way torward a 1957-58-type outcome. 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The EPS looks very good as well.

[Sundog]

You really are here just to push a warm global warming agenda, it's crazy. Mods should consider just creating a pinned GW thread IMO.

Numbers aren't an agenda bro. He didn't actually say anything wrong. December had given us a crazy good start to recording the warmest winter ever unless a dramatic reversal in departures later in the season materialize, which will most likely occur (or at least has a half decent chance.)

His statement was pretty much a hypothetical.

[PB GFI]

I really hope the state of the Global Warming argument doesn't hinge on Hiatus and Global ability to forecast years / decades.

These guys are forecasting out 10 years and can't see out past 10 days.

Eeesh.

Makes me want to stock up on fire wood.

Jk I know the background state is warning. But these 2 and their short range abilities leave a lot to be desired.

[Sundog]

I really hope the state of the Global Warming argument doesn't hinge on Hiatus and Global ability to forecast years / decades.

These guys are forecasting out 10 years and can't see out past 10 days.

Eeesh.

Makes me want to stock up on fire wood.

Jk I know the background state is warning. But these 2 and their short range abilities leave a lot to be desired.

Deterministic vs probabilistic modeling. A lot of people don't understand the difference.

You're an accomplished investor so you know the short term ups and downs are embedded in a upward long term trend. I'm happy you mentioned that in your post, it's a lot more than some others have done.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Numbers aren't an agenda bro. He didn't actually say anything wrong. December had given us a crazy good start to recording the warmest winter ever unless a dramatic reversal in departures later in the season materialize, which will most likely occur (or at least has a half decent chance.)

I'm all for GW discussion. Just not mixed with snow pattern analysis. Every time I see a block in the means I do not need 3 or 4 of the same posters reminding me how it's likely only temporary and we'll be torching again in no time. It's silly, immature and irrelevant.