Met Winter Banter

[EasternLI]

You had the right idea the first time. That's a very good pattern. That map shows the highest heights over W Canada. Look at where that neg is a of Ak.

That map show's some ridging at18k feet but take peak at

What's underneath at 5k feet. -5 to - 10 850s. The 2m anomalies on sunny days with bare grounds ate probably plus 2. So in early Jan you are in the low 40s . The way you get there with that look is because there's all HP slipping through the lakes .

But with ridging just to your west and a STJ you create a nice confluence zone.

With -5 850s what was 42 and sunny is snow if a system attacks from the S

The pattern flips once past Jan 1. We head into a period of plus 1 or 2 for 10 (but cold enough to snow) .

The entire 500mb feild flips. It's a pattern change back into a N winter like regime.

 

What I like is that the look seems to be improving with each run that comes out. You're right about the temps, I hadn't looked at that until now. 850's get colder on the EPS as you go from day 10 to 15.  I just saw that look at H5 and got a little excited (still am). I really just didn't think we would see such changes occur so soon. I was thinking more towards mid Jan, not early Jan. It's going to be a shock to the system after this December roasting.

[CIK62]

Conflict between Accuweather's last 10 days of Jan. and the CFS's weeks 4 & 5.   There is no human involvement here, so Accuweather has to have its own weighted formulas and must be using the ensemble global analogs of other foreign governments besides the CFS, not available on the internet.   We will see who wins.

[SR Airglow]

Look,  let me make it clear that I want the cold and snow!  I am just a realist and I do not believe any blog member or combination thereof, are going to do better than the all encompassing CFS, as stinky as it is, in the long run.    Talking about atmospheric patterns which may or not occur and if they do, may or may not produce the result we all desire, is silly too since U 2 are using the same computer models with their inherent errors.

If Jan. and/or Feb. are to come in negative----at least one of their attendant weeklies will have to go negative.   Show me that negative weekly.  I am being  blinded by the bright purples that have covered up to about 2 Million Sq. Miles at times and wish to get some 'snow blindness' instead.

The weeklies do not look good nor do any of the next 8 months go negative.   In June the next 8 months did not look good already.

Do not look now---but the Spring/Summer is looking warmer by a degree over other recent outputs.   This is becoming scary as CI water temp. is 52 and showing as +8.   Will I get any ocean relief in summer 2016?

If you want to see how talented meteorologists and hobbyists can do better than the CFS, take a look at last February. The CFS had it as a blowtorch the whole way through and many talented forecasters called for a very cold month and turned out to be correct. As a forecaster, you need to use guidance as guidance and not as the holy bible and you'll be much better off.

[Allsnow]

The mean trough looks to be pretty Far East come the 2nd week of January....would be a dry look

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The mean trough looks to be pretty Far East come the 2nd week of January....would be a dry look

Agree. More than that, the PV settles over Hudson Bay. Also lends itself to a suppressive look, which unfortunately is a typical track for a strong El Niño. Either way, miles better than December, so we'll see how it evolves.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

What I like is that the look seems to be improving with each run that comes out. You're right about the temps, I hadn't looked at that until now. 850's get colder on the EPS as you go from day 10 to 15. I just saw that look at H5 and got a little excited (still am). I really just didn't think we would see such changes occur so soon. I was thinking more towards mid Jan, not early Jan. It's going to be a shock to the system after this December roasting.

Excellent posts yesterday and today btw. Kudos.

[PB GFI]

CONSTANT ERROR PATTERN .

 

Yesterday when I posted the weeklies there were some that looked at week 2 and said man that ridge is too far east .

 

Below are the day 30 - and day 32 from the weeklies 2 weeks ago . Unfortunately  I don`t have day 31 which is my test case , but you can see what the weeklies thought for that period . 

 

Looking at that one would wow , look at all that ridging . That is a blowtorch ( which is what we were hearing on this board for the 1st 10 days of Jan ) .

Some of us were saying when you develop a NEG that far west near AK , that ridge has to pull back .

 

So here is the new day 12.5 vs just the old day 14 and day 15 .

Look at how that keeps pulling back as we get closer . Day 12.5 is not all the way there yet and will pull back even more , prob once to day 10 .

 

Broken record I know  ................ But if you have that look near the Aleutians you will NEVER  warm the EC .

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

Day 14 - 21 , This too should correct W , 

 

[Allsnow]

Agree. More than that, the PV settles over Hudson Bay. Also lends itself to a suppressive look, which unfortunately is a typical track for a strong El Niño. Either way, miles better than December, so we'll see how it evolves.

Agree. Way better then the +30 we have now and would be nice to get some cold air down here. Looks like our first legit artic shot around Jan 4th?

[wthrmn654]

Look, let me make it clear that I want the cold and snow! I am just a realist and I do not believe any blog member or combination thereof, are going to do better than the all encompassing CFS, as stinky as it is, in the long run. Talking about atmospheric patterns which may or not occur and if they do, may or may not produce the result we all desire, is silly too since U 2 are using the same computer models with their inherent errors.

If Jan. and/or Feb. are to come in negative----at least one of their attendant weeklies will have to go negative. Show me that negative weekly. I am being blinded by the bright purples that have covered up to about 2 Million Sq. Miles at times and wish to get some 'snow blindness' instead.

The weeklies do not look good nor do any of the next 8 months go negative. In June the next 8 months did not look good already.

Do not look now---but the Spring/Summer is looking warmer by a degree over other recent outputs. This is becoming scary as CI water temp. is 52 and showing as +8. Will I get any ocean relief in summer 2016?

Right off the bat, your mistake/flaw would be using accuweather as a means of forecasting.. if I recall correctly,there forecast is all computer based on basically one computer model. I may be wrong partially. Second, IDK how it can come as a shocker, but from the posts ive seen, you tend to take the model or models 100% word for word, and live the cfs. Like others said today, you gotta read the data available, interpret what there trying to say, look at other years for any help, and then create an idea/forecast that seems reasonably decent,based on current available data.

[wthrmn654]

Look,  let me make it clear that I want the cold and snow!  I am just a realist and I do not believe any blog member or combination thereof, are going to do better than the all encompassing CFS, as stinky as it is, in the long run.    Talking about atmospheric patterns which may or not occur and if they do, may or may not produce the result we all desire, is silly too since U 2 are using the same computer models with their inherent errors.

If Jan. and/or Feb. are to come in negative----at least one of their attendant weeklies will have to go negative.   Show me that negative weekly.  I am being  blinded by the bright purples that have covered up to about 2 Million Sq. Miles at times and wish to get some 'snow blindness' instead.

The weeklies do not look good nor do any of the next 8 months go negative.   In June the next 8 months did not look good already.

Do not look now---but the Spring/Summer is looking warmer by a degree over other recent outputs.   This is becoming scary as CI water temp. is 52 and showing as +8.   Will I get any ocean relief in summer 2016?

and I missed it before but to flat out say you basically don't believe any bloggers or anyone on here.saying we don't know what we're talking about or that even the professional Mets on here are full of themselves? Don't care if we get warm or cold,but you really should apologize for that remark.

Just my opinion.

[forkyfork]

the blocking is useless if we have too much troughing off the west coast

[forkyfork]

the blocking is useless if we have too much troughing off the west coast

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html

look at days 10-15 after the initial cold shot. canada is overwhelmed with pacific air and we wind up being above normal despite below normal heights. i pointed this out a few weeks ago when someone posted a seasonal forecast map showing a similar pattern 

[Stormlover74]

5 years ago today..got more snow in 4 hours than I'll probably see this whole winter

[PB GFI]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html

look at days 10-15 after the initial cold shot. canada is overwhelmed with pacific air and we wind up being above normal despite below normal heights. i pointed this out a few weeks ago when someone posted a seasonal forecast map showing a similar pattern 

 

 

Those are anomalies , you know better than this . What is plus 1 SD in Manitoba is N to BN @ KNYC .

 

-EPO/+PNA bring HP through the lakes , These are the actual 850s 

[PB GFI]

You want to see WC AN , that means there is ridging there . If there is ridging in WC there is a trough in  either the SE , GL or NE 

 

This pattern flip will get you back to at least 10 days of N to plus 2 . But in early Jan , that`s cold . There is nothing truly frigid in the guidance , but a really good look at 500 and supportive 850s in the event we get SLP S or E . 

[Stormlover74]

Parts of Oklahoma are under severe thunderstorm and winter storm warnings

[forkyfork]

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/680772880657985540

[AvantHiatus]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html

look at days 10-15 after the initial cold shot. canada is overwhelmed with pacific air and we wind up being above normal despite below normal heights. i pointed this out a few weeks ago when someone posted a seasonal forecast map showing a similar pattern 

Exactly. You have a week-long window of opportunity with supportive airmasses and then they fall away and moderate for various reasons. The torch pattern will reload, it's only a question of when.

[PB GFI]

Awful maps , and to my point yesterday the IDIOT BRIGADE rushes in and agrees with a tweet  , I wish those who do zero work  in here wouldn`t be so  quick to agree without even understanding  what the Euro keeps doing by pulling back the entire 2m scheme ( because what it does at 500 ) cools as we get closer . 

 

 

 

Here is the old 5 day period NOW VALID 6 - 11 . Here are the new 850 anomalies .

Why are they now - 2c at 850 , scroll back to the first post this morning and see what the Euro does .

 

Even the GFS 11- 15 are a respectable +1 or 2  at 2m day 11 -15 which is fair . For early JAN you are spending most of the day in the upper 30s before you max out and fav 850s are what you need .

There is no abyss . But winter is coming . 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RedSky]

The mean trough looks to be pretty Far East come the 2nd week of January....would be a dry look

My nightmare is stepping down into a seasonably cold look in early to mid January but dry with the trough axis too far east and it ends up snowing in the Carolinas

[MJO812]

Looks like a clipper pattern on the models with a non stj.

[MJO812]

Exactly. You have a week-long window of opportunity with supportive airmasses and then they fall away and moderate for various reasons. The torch pattern will reload, it's only a question of when.

Where do you see a torch pattern?

[WeatherFeen2000]

Exactly. You have a week-long window of opportunity with supportive airmasses and then they fall away and moderate for various reasons. The torch pattern will reload, it's only a question of when.

the torch pattern will reload in June. I think the warmth is gone after tomorrow and you won't see it again until summer begins. You my friend are bugging!

[AvantHiatus]

Where do you see a torch pattern?

Not for a while, 2 weeks, perhaps 3. But after week 1, it will be suppression city as many have mentioned here.  Part of my thinking is based on the CFS. There have always been colder breaks in warm patterns.

 

[CIK62]

How is SSW doing?  Is it reaching down to the top of the troposphere where it can affect the 500mb pattern?  I thought I understood this process,  but in 2012 it went the other way (other side of N. Pole) and Siberia, China, India, Eastern Europe but not western Europe were, frozen for 6 weeks  while we set all-time record highs.

[AvantHiatus]

February remains our most promising month...

 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Not for a while, 2 weeks, perhaps 3. But after week 1, it will be suppression city as many have mentioned here. Part of my thinking is based on the CFS. There have always been colder breaks in warm patterns.

Yes. Don't read any real analysis and just parrot a met's tweets. Odds are we relax the pattern for a day or three during week 2 but increased SSWE activity likely leads to a more locked in BN to N period from late Jan through Feb. yesterday's euro and 18z gfs split the PV at 50hpa. It's coming, just a matter of when.

[donsutherland1]

Just so it is clear, the forecast 500 mb pattern for the 6-10-day and 11-15-day periods does not even resemble the extreme pattern that is coming to a close. Below are some 500 mb maps:

 

 

While this pattern evolution does not mean that January will wind up colder than normal in the NYC area, it means that there is very little chance that it will even begin to rival December's historic warmth. 

[CIK62]

Well given the anomaly in Dec., I estimate than any combination of Jan and Feb divergences totaling +7   (say +3.5 &+3.5 or +10.0 & a -3.0) will make this the warmest winter ever.