wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Cold Air Seeks Shelter---Crosses Mexican Border (going south LOL) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201601.gif wait,what exactly is this suppose to be telling anyone? It's dates are up to today..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I wish it would stay this warm all Winter. Now thats just adding fuel to this already out of control fire we have on this site today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Tip posts a very well talked about break down of well,Christ everything lol... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47437-winter-lorn-given-a-reason-to-smile/ I honestly have to be very awake when I read his posts, if I'm not I will have to read it a few times to absorb everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I honestly have to be very awake when I read his posts, if I'm not I will have to read it a few times to absorb everything. lol yeah my head and eyes hurt after reading and reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm only here mainly in winter because I'm really way to busy during summer! Minus when hurricane surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Kids were out today riding bikes in shorts and t-shirts. And I saw a few people wearing flip flops yesterday. I wish it would stay this warm all Winter. If it wants to stay mild then fine but it would be nice if I could open the windows and have a nice cool breeze during the night instead of 60s and humid. The records have been broken, now I'm ready for at least normal torch weather (+3-5)instead of twilight zone absurdity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 If today was end of month, my weather station mean temperature for month would be:48.5℉ Average temperature is:36℉ That's: +12.5° above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'm only here mainly in winter because I'm really way to busy during summer! Minus when hurricane surface. Same here I probably have had 10 posts between April and September combined the last 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 https://vine.co/v/OMqDr7r0bKI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 ^ Am I awful for thinking that's awesome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Lol that was hilarious....then again I don't have kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 That's so old but still funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Rat boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 No way am I seeing 4-6 out of that lolObviously not. Weenie snow maps are the worst. I'm not a big fan of any snow map but I'm going to post the meteocentre gfs snow map when it comes out. You'll see a huge difference in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Normal people don't melt Who said anyone in here is normal? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 https://vine.co/v/OMqDr7r0bKI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 no need to freak out about something we have no control over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 ^ Am I awful for thinking that's awesome? Absolutely not. That video IS awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Of course, perhaps we're both awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Not gonna happen for this system but in previous years I remember situations where all was lost ...then bam a 12zgfs run brings back hope shows cold and snowy solution. .yup. .our time will arrive ..winter will arrive with Fury. .after Jan 17 just my opinion. .then most will be tracking snow by then. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 So we all know snow is going to come by mid Jan, im not a fan of the snow at all. I work out side year round and the snow BLOWS. But its part of life living here. BUT im happy that i don't think we will see the awful cold we had last year making the snow less of a permanent fixture with an ice pack lasting till the end of March. OFF TOPIC: I'm from Stony Brook so i honestly only care about what happens in this part of long island. Sorry but i just have to put that out there. So when i talk about the cold and snow im only talking about this part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Chris, for 6 months many of us worked to show how that ENSO event would evolve and it did exactly what we said . Now the same people who were vehemently wrong from May through November are now going to preach about the very months that some here have opined would flip out of a warmer month . A warm Nov/ Dec was seen from long distance . Thinking Dec would finish at plus 2c was backed by guidance . Plus 10 was not modeled anywhere , but the 500 mb pattern was correct So it has to matter . The fact that the trough dug so deep in the SW and that ridge exploding over the E tells me be careful when it flips , because as the pattern are being recognized by the better guidance even if the anomalies are coming up short . No on last Jan saw - 10 for Feb . The models tend to miss the extremes , but there is guidance that foes exceptional at picking up on the seasonal patterns . It is pattern recognition , I am not looking to win the battle of HDDs . My passion comes from showing the guidance while others don`t bother . My passion comes from seeing a post go up that is wrong and the hand ringing that follows . The beauty of PR is if you make a statement Randy asks you to back it up , do you how we would clean this place up if we were held to the same standards . JMO. Yeah, some aspects were correct about the long range forecast. I think the best that science is capable of is providing some broad outlines or themes to the long range forecast. But extremes have been happening so often in the 2000's this far, that no long range forecast can do justice to what has occurred. It may be that past analogs happened under a different set of circumstances, so the modern expression surprises to the upside in the extreme department. But even modoki climo for last winter was well exceeded by by the extremes of late snow and cold from NYC to Boston. The extreme nature of the record warmth followed from May to December also surprised all well beyond any forecasts. But each new month provides the opportunity for a certain model forecasts to get back on track so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 We seem to be moving away from this torch, and not transiently. Here is what guidance is showing now. First we get the +PNA, also notice the ridging near Scandinavia (first image). The Aleutian low is backing off, EPO goes neg. The higher heights begin propagating across the arctic on both sides (second image). Possibly giving us a ridge bridge? Does that set up cross polar flow? I'm posting the GEFS for this example, but keep in mind, the EPS is showing basically the same thing. So there is some agreement there. +PNA Ridge Bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Ironically, looking at past posts for someone, people were jumping ship this past January 5th because of bad models showing up and not really any snow... Lol thought it was ironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 What's a ridge bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 We seem to be moving away from this torch, and not transiently. Here is what guidance is showing now. First we get the +PNA, also notice the ridging near Scandinavia (first image). The Aleutian low is backing off, EPO goes neg. The higher heights begin propagating across the arctic on both sides (second image). Possibly giving us a ridge bridge? Does that set up cross polar flow? I'm posting the GEFS for this example, but keep in mind, the EPS is showing basically the same thing. So there is some agreement there. +PNA GEFS174.png Ridge Bridge? GEFS384.png Despite the more favorable -EPO/-AO pattern, a pesky remnant of the previous SW trough NE ridge pattern remains. We'll have to see what the models ultimately do with this persistent feature as we move further into the month. But we are still talking about day 8-14 which could change again before we get to the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Despite the more favorable -EPO/-AO pattern, a pesky remnant of the previous SW trough NE ridge pattern remains. We'll have to see what the models ultimately do with this persistent feature as we move further into the month. But we are still talking about day 8-14 which could change again before we get to the New Year. gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_3.png Yeah, that's certainly something to keep an eye on. Honestly, I really didn't think we'd see the kinds of improvements that are being modeled so quickly. And perhaps we don't, or they are being rushed a bit? The low heights in the west want to pump up a ridge in the east. I'm hopeful that what ultimately happens is a split flow with a +pna and STJ underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Look, let me make it clear that I want the cold and snow! I am just a realist and I do not believe any blog member or combination thereof, are going to do better than the all encompassing CFS, as stinky as it is, in the long run. Talking about atmospheric patterns which may or not occur and if they do, may or may not produce the result we all desire, is silly too since U 2 are using the same computer models with their inherent errors. If Jan. and/or Feb. are to come in negative----at least one of their attendant weeklies will have to go negative. Show me that negative weekly. I am being blinded by the bright purples that have covered up to about 2 Million Sq. Miles at times and wish to get some 'snow blindness' instead. The weeklies do not look good nor do any of the next 8 months go negative. In June the next 8 months did not look good already. Do not look now---but the Spring/Summer is looking warmer by a degree over other recent outputs. This is becoming scary as CI water temp. is 52 and showing as +8. Will I get any ocean relief in summer 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Times are changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yeah, that's certainly something to keep an eye on. Honestly, I really didn't think we'd see the kinds of improvements that are being modeled so quickly. And perhaps we don't, or they are being rushed a bit? The low heights in the west want to pump up a ridge in the east. I'm hopeful that what ultimately happens is a split flow with a +pna and STJ underneath.You had the right idea the first time. That's a very good pattern. That map shows the highest heights over W Canada. Look at where that neg is a of Ak.That map show's some ridging at18k feet but take peak at What's underneath at 5k feet. -5 to - 10 850s. The 2m anomalies on sunny days with bare grounds ate probably plus 2. So in early Jan you are in the low 40s . The way you get there with that look is because there's all HP slipping through the lakes . But with ridging just to your west and a STJ you create a nice confluence zone. With -5 850s what was 42 and sunny is snow if a system attacks from the S The pattern flips once past Jan 1. We head into a period of plus 1 or 2 for 10 (but cold enough to snow) . The entire 500mb feild flips. It's a pattern change back into a N winter like regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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