Rjay Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Please post all banter in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 why do people keep using snow maps that count sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I seriously understand the need for a banter thread and I agree that if your going state or say something involving models,patterns, etc. You need links or maps. If you're someone who is fairly new to the board, and aren't really that great with reading models etc, say that,ask questions. Don't be cocky and a know it all! It's OK to ask for help etc. For people like pb, to be upset about some going totally against what he sees and interprets, and others who agree, especially if you're newer and never explain or post things as to your reasoning will only anger others! Everyone needs to help each other,we're all into weather and the same thing! Otherwise, I would say/suggest that the moderators and administrative people may need to come up with a way to filter or control those who basically troll and contribute negative/possibly false info,on a regular basis on purpose! Or post limit. Anyway, my Christmas advice, let's not fight on Christmas?? Merry Christmas you filthy animals Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 3 strike system would probably work. 3 warnings... Any time after those 3 warnings,you are basically "put in time out!" You want to cause trouble or problems then you get put there lol after 3 warnings, 1st time offender can't comment for 1 day, 2ND offense 3 days, 3Rd offense 5 days, 4th 10 days, 10 offense ban or something. Something along those lines or whatever. Either way. Shouldn't have to come to this I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Really enjoy the warm temps this month. El Niño is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 People need to ease up on statements of certainty related to what model x, y, and z shows beyond beyond the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. You have to realize that small changes in the 1-5 day and 6-10 can have huge ripple effects when run out to weeks 3 and beyond. Monthly model runs issued on the 29 to 31st can have some skill for the month right ahead. But outside of general climo pertaining to various ENSO states, the seasonal stuff is still largely a roll of the dice. Some years one or more models get a hot hand a do great weeks 3-4 to months ahead. But other years for some unknown reasons don't do as well. Welcome to the wonderful world of long range forecasting. Respect the uncertainty involved and try not to get too worked up over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 people want to be told it's going to snow. bottom line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 LR guidance shows warmth, it's likely correct and models can be used as tools to show where the pattern is headed. People challenge what is shown are wearing snow goggles. LR guidance shows cold, it's wrong and we should be cautious of using models as tools to show where the pattern is headed. People who support what is shown are wearing snow goggles. Nut house. People referencing the Euro Weeklies as though they are gospel and yet they did not show ANY of what the actual EPS is now showing in the mid and long range (Scandinavian ridge bridge to +PNA with Aleutian low retrograding. GEPS and GEFS also completely on board for what the Weeklies never showed. One poster continuing to harp on and on about the CFS, even recently using a 60 day forecast to back up his warm biased thoughts. This is just silliness here with all the warmth promotion. Beyond that, people here apparently do not know how to read the Weeklies. Claims of record warmth again in January week 2. WHAT? No. A relaxation or even a day or two above normal is possible as the pattern reloads, but beyond that, we are likely locked in. Stratosphere continues to be assaulted with a likely wave 2 beginning in the next week or so, possibly impacted by the massive blocking that is setting up around the same time. PV displacement/split seems to be on schedule for mid late Jan and the 1957-58 continues to be the best analog. There is really nothing other than the strength of the El Nino comparable to 1997-98. This El Nino is not east based and it is not strengthening despite forecast WWBs in the LR which are more likely to due to MJO progression. The tropical forcing is not like 1998. It is further toward the dateline. Man, I wish there was some accountability here for poor pattern analysis. Too many people here are either clearly warm-biased and sticking it to posters who like cold/snow or they are trolls in the case of a met and few others. It's silliness here. For everyone else, hang in there. Good times are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 people want to be told it's going to snow. bottom line Truth. It's a psychosis of some kind, an affirmation of validation of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Anything in the long range is garbage IMO. It's all such a crap shoot. Warm, cold, wet, dry...it's doesn't matter. The best thing anyone can do is not take things so seriously and personality. Long range forecasting is banter IMO. There's nothing wrong with discussing it, exchanging ideas and disagreeing with each other. There's a lot wrong with bickering and arguing over something that will change 1000 times before it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Just post a map once and a while and explain your position. It gives the reader an opportunity to understand the what before your why. This warmth was seen from quite a distance. I believe we will be right on the upcoming cold as well. That's not a definitive statement its a forecast backed by guidance. Enjoy the warmth. It's the only warmth you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Personally, I take the weeklies with a huge grain of salt. From what I know, they are just an extended version of that days 00z EPS. So if the EPS is off, so are the weeklies. They didn't do so well last year either, in the uber long range. At times showing a -nao, and we know that didn't happen. Lastly, they missed this Dec inferno also did they not? So yeah, grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Really enjoy the warm temps this month. El Niño is great These are the only months where even if December-January had a +20 monthly departure most people would love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Really enjoy the warm temps this month. El Niño is great Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Anything in the long range is garbage IMO. It's all such a crap shoot. Warm, cold, wet, dry...it's doesn't matter. The best thing anyone can do is not take things so seriously and personality. Long range forecasting is banter IMO. There's nothing wrong with discussing it, exchanging ideas and disagreeing with each other. There's a lot wrong with bickering and arguing over something that will change 1000 times before it actually happens. Time to split the forum into warm and cold. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 people want to be told it's going to snow. bottom line Well there will be chances for that in the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/changes-ecmwf-model/cycle-41r1 These are the new Euro ensemble weekly ensembles They are the Euro new 45 day ensembles that replace the weeklies . Medium-range/monthly ensemble (ENS) LegB extended to 46 days (instead of 32) on Mondays and Thursday (at 00UTC). Twice weekly 11-member re-forecasts. Here are the 1st 7 days Day 7 - 14 offer 1 opportunity to be slightly above N , but look at where that NEG is , those are BS false heights east of the lakes , that will prob correct too . Then we re fire and lock in . The Euro suggest not only are the 1st 7 days a PATTERN CHANGE but Jan 14- Feb 5 are exactly what the Euro seasonal was showing since Sept. MERRY CHRISTMAS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Really enjoy the warm temps this month. El Niño is great No its rather sick and disconcerting and jives with what scientists have been warning about for decades. My understanding is this is El Nino amplified by climate change. Not good, and I had to put the central AC on last night because my guests were all sweating. On Dec 24th. Air Conditioning. In NJ. Reminds me of an old Twilight Zone episode, the older ones here will no the one I'm referencing....people should be concerned about this. Maybe the politicians will do something? Like, admit there is a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 my favorite episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Truth. It's a psychosis of some kind, an affirmation of validation of sorts. A little harsh.....and unfair to folks who actually suffer from psychosis, a serious and crippling condition. I know you don't mean it literally. You don't, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 my favorite episode Yup. They did so much more with so much less back in the day...no CGI special effects just good storytelling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Remember when guys were humping the Canadian here . lol I wonder what model these guys will turn to now . Horror show is right . Old run New run Old run New run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/changes-ecmwf-model/cycle-41r1 These are the new Euro ensemble monthlies They are the Euro new 45 day ensembles that replace the weeklies . Medium-range/monthly ensemble (ENS) LegB extended to 46 days (instead of 32) on Mondays and Thursday (at 00UTC). Twice weekly 11-member re-forecasts. Here are the 1st 7 days Day 7 - 14 offer 1 opportunity to be slightly above N , but look at where that NEG is , those are BS false heights east of the lakes , that will prob correct too . Then we re fire and lock in . The Euro suggest not only are the 1st 7 days a PATTERN CHANGE but Jan 14- Feb 5 are exactly what the Euro seasonal was showing since Sept. MERRY CHRISTMAS . the ridge is too far east to be favorable for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 the ridge is too far east to be favorable for us What time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 everything after week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 the ridge is too far east to be favorable for us that was pretty much the pattern the entire 04-05 winter and it worked okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Reminds me what Sheryl Lemke said once back in the 90's on the weather channel that has stuck with me "You're just gonna bake" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 my favorite episode That's my favorite episode too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 5 years ago to the day we was all model watching before the historic Boxing Day storm hit lol. I wasn't on this board but I remember being stuck watching the weather channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 everything after week 2 No way man - day 14- 21 is the only part of this entire period I would need to see pull back . Day 21 - 46 look really good . There is no way that height field on the W shores of HB with the STJ cutting and deepening in the SE/MA could not be favorable. You can not warm the EC with that NEG where it is . That pos PNA is sending HP through the lakes with a trough in the SE Whats not to like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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