RedSky Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This is a first, sweating wrapping presents last hour and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This is a first, sweating wrapping presents last hour and a half That happened to me before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 That happened to me before I am considering kicking on the AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 My a/c would probably be on if it was like this in the summer. 67.5/67 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Wow, GFS has accumulating snow practically down to Austin this run, and the 6" line is maybe 75 miles NW of me. Believe me, I'm expecting nothing down here, but it would be cool to see snow in the air a day after it comes close to 80 degrees, after we likely have a round of severe weather. The question north of me will be how soon the low stacks, cutting the dynamics, and how soon the upper low goes negative tilt, bringing in tons of warm air aloft ahead of the upper low. The heavy snow zone down here will look like a reverse L: it will advance east and quite far south, before what I said catches up to it, and the heavy snow can't keep coming east because the low stacks, and drags in too much warm air. Ice is looking like another concern, particularly in OK and KS-a 1040+ mb high is nosing down from the Dakotas as the system comes out from NM. You're a little too far east for good snow, but the areas to the west and southwest of you will get crushed before warm air enters. Should be a great event from E NM through Big Bend NP up to Midland/Odessa and over to the NW Hill Country. Plenty of high elevations there to take advantage of dynamics and cold 850s. People forget that much of SW Texas is 3000'-5000' elevation and thus can be quite cold in winter.GFS has another event down there around the New Year, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The arctic finally decided to let go, but on the other side of the world.1060mb high over Kazakhstan with -30C 850s in northeast China, -20C in northern Kazahstan, and the 0C line all the way down near the Pakistani coast. Just a total unloading of the arctic with a massive -AO block.Actually looks like a decent pattern Jan 1-7 even though Canada warms substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It will be a SWFE when it gets to you-I've never been a fan of those for snow potential in NYC, but the high looks to be in a decent enough spot for maybe wintry precip to start, especially anywhere north and west/northeast of the city. Also, the ridge south of you guys will have very warm air to surge in. Heck, it's been at or near 80 here for days. Agree with the bold part. It's possible that SWFE deliver the goods sometimes, sure. I would want to see a very cold airmass in place for NYC snow potential. Last year type of cold, for example. That's really needed with these to help fend off the warmth streaming in aloft. Obviously, the folks N+W of the city have more wiggle room usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Day 15 That NEG heads "west". The tough deepens in Europe . The ridge goes up east of the Caspian . The ridge is on the W shores of HB. All argue for a trough in the E . Day 15 will get colder on the Euro as we get closer Just as we saw day 10 thu 14 1st several days ago here that you see has gotten colder over the past few days , the same voices said that original idea was wrong I think we won the day 10 thru 14 battle , we will see how this one works out. I want to show you some of you missed an upcoming 7 day N to BN period and the terrible analysis that went on here yesterday with regards to the move "east" of that NEG in the GOA .That is why you can see like I stated above the new day 14 is cooler that yesterdays day 15 . Some of you who missed this are now worried about the 10th through the 20th . We will have to see if this pulls back and has to reload or will those heights in WC get stuck there like the Euro weeklies say they do for week 3 and 4. That happens to be in lock step with it`s seasonal and we keep the -epo+pna in tact . Below you will see both toda`s and yesterdays day 14/ 15- 500mb , 2m anomalies along with the RETROGRESSION of the GOA low . Why is that important , because if you tug that NEG west in the GOA you pull the ridge back on the W shores of HB and with the jet cutting underneath , YOU CANT WARM THE EAST . The European showed this to be the case all last year as it would wash the trough out on the EC on the LR . You now see a 5 day mean , but really this begins on day 9 where it`s 2m anomalies are -2c @ 850 and that gets you a week of N in sunshine and bare ground but more importantly if anything comes through the flow the actual 850s are - 5 to -8 and that works . Is it only a 7 day pattern change ? I can`t be sure Could it turn into a 14 day or 21 day , sure but lets remember the calls and miss of this 7 days stretch that this was the same ole pattern and this looks transient are only a few pages back . So forgive me for not buying the warmer opinions in the longer range , you guys already swung and missed here . It will important to watch the PAC over the next few days .The linear thinkers will have you believe the AO/NAO are the bullies they are not. A good Pacific could overcome a bad Atlantic and this regime once again is making itself known . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Looks like PB will win this round... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Let's not declare victory just yet but yes there will be a huge step down particularly as we welcome 2016. Will it be transient? Will it represent a true pattern change? We'll know soon enough although I did see the CFS back off on the warmth in the NE forums, which may be telling. Still believe Jan will be AN but it could be a lot closer to normal than even us "warmies" thought. If so then PB wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It feels like summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I am N in this 7 day period. I am plus 3 for Jan. The victory is the torch is over and the 1 3 5 day break is now 7 . It's the favorable PAC that I am looking for not just our 2 M . All I am saying is watch the EP WC region. If that locks off , you are marginally cold enough W the jet your S . I am plus 1 for the winter. The victory will W a favorable 500 with decent 2ms if the EC Is wet you could sneak AN snowfall in . There is no torch. There is no abyss. But with a favorable 500 it just needs to be cold enough. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I want to show you some of you missed an upcoming 7 day N to BN period and the terrible analysis that went on here yesterday with regards to the move "east" of that NEG in the GOA . That is why you can see like I stated above the new day 14 is cooler that yesterdays day 15 . Some of you who missed this are now worried about the 10th through the 20th . We will have to see if this pulls back and has to reload or will those heights in WC get stuck there like the Euro weeklies say they do for week 3 and 4. That happens to be in lock step with it`s seasonal and we keep the -epo+pna in tact . Below you will see both toda`s and yesterdays day 14/ 15- 500mb , 2m anomalies along with the RETROGRESSION of the GOA low . Why is that important , because if you tug that NEG west in the GOA you pull the ridge back on the W shores of HB and with the jet cutting underneath , YOU CANT WARM THE EAST . The European showed this to be the case all last year as it would wash the trough out on the EC on the LR . You now see a 5 day mean , but really this begins on day 9 where it`s 2m anomalies are -2c @ 850 and that gets you a week of N in sunshine and bare ground but more importantly if anything comes through the flow the actual 850s are - 5 to -8 and that works . Is it only a 7 day pattern change ? I can`t be sure Could it turn into a 14 day or 21 day , sure but lets remember the calls and miss of this 7 days stretch that this was the same ole pattern and this looks transient are only a few pages back . So forgive me for not buying the warmer opinions in the longer range , you guys already swung and missed here . It will important to watch the PAC over the next few days .The linear thinkers will have you believe the AO/NAO are the bullies they are not. A good Pacific could overcome a bad Atlantic and this regime once again is making itself known . Textbook narcissistic personality disorder. Textbook case, literally every symptom. Obsessive compulsive tendencies too http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder/basics/symptoms/con-20025568 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Textbook narcissistic personality disorder. Textbook case, literally every symptom. Obsessive compulsive tendencies too http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder/basics/symptoms/con-20025568 This not PR. You should be banned for this comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Insane +50 departure at Saranac Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Textbook narcissistic personality disorder. Textbook case, literally every symptom. Obsessive compulsive tendencies too http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder/basics/symptoms/con-20025568"Are you mad bro " .In life kid it's OK to be loud and it's OK to be wrong , but you have been both here since you began. And that's a bad combination. I will take narcissism vs being wrong everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I am N in this 7 day period. I am plus 3 for Jan. Merry Christmas. If you're neutral for the first week of January and +3 overall then January is pretty much cooked. Unless you expect a short duration but powerful torch to send the departures up while still maintaining normalcy later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This not PR. You should be banned for this comment. He can be nasty....PMed me about inserting something into my mother's *** a couple of months ago....ENSO is serious, I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This not PR. You should be banned for this comment. To be fair, there's nothing political about his comment. It may be rude but that is nothing new around these parts. And banning is a ridiculous overreaction. PB can handle himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Looks like PB will win this round... Very likely the next eleven. as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 This not PR. You should be banned for this comment.Lol yesterday he personality attacked me in this thread and among other things said he thinks I'm nuts. It goes both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 If you're neutral for the first week of January and +3 overall then January is pretty much cooked. Unless you expect a short duration but powerful torch to send the departures up while still maintaining normalcy later in the month. The overall pattern is changing. I expect there to be a 5 to 7 day pulse before it reloads. If day 1 thru 10 are plus 1. 10 thru 20 plus 4 and 20 thru 30 are plus 1, I get close enough. Who knows maybe I'm too warm. I don't see a torch and I don't see frigid. I argued with you away that the first week would b N and the euro 2m anomalies were wrong , I think that turned out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Lol yesterday he personality attacked me in this thread and among other things said he thinks I'm nuts. It goes both ways Your account as taken two assaults already from the stratospheric moderators, one more and your account will be displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Lol yesterday he personality attacked me in this thread and among other things said he thinks I'm nuts. It goes both ways It doesnt go both ways. If someone attacks you, report it, dont drag the conversation further down. Grow the **** up. This is a weather forum, if you cant discuss the weather without acting like a child, try accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 You guys have argued for like 6 months about this crap and now Its personal attacks, aren't you guys tired yet? It's xmas eve, take a freakin break.. Beating a dead horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Not defending snowman but he is pretty knowledgeable he knows his stuff but his bias is ridiculous so I see as to why PB challenges him. The getting nasty part idk why he would get that way after all we're discussing weather not politics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Very likely the next eleven. as well. Thanks Ray, lucky for him they don't go 15 anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 You guys have argued for like 6 months about this crap and now Its personal attacks, aren't you guys tired yet? It's xmas eve, take a freakin break.. Beating a dead horse I know...I'm guilty, too. Merry Christmas, boys. snowman19 really does know his stuff, no one is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I know...I'm guilty, too. Merry Christmas, boys. snowman19 really does know his stuff, no one is perfect. Hopefully we see some flakes Tuesday, first flakes always calm the nerves lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 Btw what did the 00z EPS show for these upcoming days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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