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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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I think this weather has actually made people nastier than usual.Sent from my iPad

Everyone's in the spirit here. Well, most people I'm around were pretty happy at least :D

It's a nice time of year, so even if it doesn't feel like Christmas, we should try and act like it is- my 2¢

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If the Euro's right, I might see snow in the air before most of you this winter. Accumulating snow on the 12z run gets a decent way into the Hill Country.

Yes, great pattern upcoming for west TX, TX panhandle, NM, etc. Snow maps show accumulating snows getting down into modest elevations of Mexico, very impressive, along with highs in the 35-40F range for El Paso. Could be an historic stretch there.
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Yes, great pattern upcoming for west TX, TX panhandle, NM, etc. Snow maps show accumulating snows getting down into modest elevations of Mexico, very impressive, along with highs in the 35-40F range for El Paso. Could be an historic stretch there.

It's possible places like Midland/Odessa get their biggest snowstorm, or one of the largest, on record. 18z GFS has 1.5" QPF in central Southwest Texas. Those areas have about 2700' elevation, so temperatures are expected to plunge into the low 20s with snow.

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Gfs says congrats western tx and snowstorm for Dallas Monday morning

My poor parents who are flying down here tomorrow night are in for a ride here in Austin. Near 80 for highs Fri and Sat, probably severe weather overnight into Sun (we're lucky our window seems to be overnight, otherwise I would think there could be a significant tornado threat), and then crashing temps and possibly snow flurries as the upper low departs, with the high struggling past 45 on Mon. They're about to get schooled on the very changeable Texas climate this time of year. 

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i take it warm and rain when it gets up to our area

It will be a SWFE when it gets to you-I've never been a fan of those for snow potential in NYC, but the high looks to be in a decent enough spot for maybe wintry precip to start, especially anywhere north and west/northeast of the city. 

 

Also, the ridge south of you guys will have very warm air to surge in. Heck, it's been at or near 80 here for days. 

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Yeaaaaaaa.... What a kick in the nuts, GFS says snow in Mexico, while we pray for a dusting

The mountains in NM and down around El Paso and the Big Bend near the Rio Grande are snowier than you might think. It won't be a powdery snow for sure, but the upper low down here will be quite intense, and heights will be low enough to create decently enough cold air. It wouldn't surprise me if not far from here, further in the Hill Country has an inch or two of snow if the upper low goes underneath Austin. 

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Mostly rain

I understand, but N and W of the city start the event below freezing, and we know how pesky that low level cold can be (especially if the High to our north doesn't slide east as fast as depicted) it's nothing big but certainly something to watch in this sinfully boring pattern.
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Wow, GFS has accumulating snow practically down to Austin this run, and the 6" line is maybe 75 miles NW of me. Believe me, I'm expecting nothing down here, but it would be cool to see snow in the air a day after it comes close to 80 degrees, after we likely have a round of severe weather. 

 

The question north of me will be how soon the low stacks, cutting the dynamics, and how soon the upper low goes negative tilt, bringing in tons of warm air aloft ahead of the upper low. The heavy snow zone down here will look like a reverse L: it will advance east and quite far south, before what I said catches up to it, and the heavy snow can't keep coming east because the low stacks, and drags in too much warm air. 

 

Ice is looking like another concern, particularly in OK and KS-a 1040+ mb high is nosing down from the Dakotas as the system comes out from NM. 

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I understand, but N and W of the city start the event below freezing, and we know how pesky that low level cold can be (especially if the High to our north doesn't slide east as fast as depicted) it's nothing big but certainly something to watch in this sinfully boring pattern.

The high is sliding east way too quickly for comfort for you guys. When winds shift to anything but NE given how warm the waters are, it's lights out for wintry precip unless you're well inland and shielded somewhat from onshore winds. You need the high to stay where it is for longer. Also keep in mind if you're looking at the weenie maps-warm air aloft usually moves in quicker than modeled in SWFEs (and this ridge will have very warm air to ram in) and changes over to sleet, and those maps usually count sleet with snow and artificially inflate totals. 

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Jan 1st-8th window looks solid for winter standards. However the torch will likely reload thereafter. (not based on the 384hr panel)

 

Nonetheless, something like the above is a make or break event if you like snow.

I don't see a torch after the first week. I see temps near average. We shall see.

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