Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro has the 2nd system brushing the coast with snow New Year's Day...obv la la land but something to keep a eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 You mean GFS if it's right. Euro is faster with the storm and has a better placed high this run compare to the 0z run. It's nice like the GFS but pretty close. I mentioned in the sne thread after the GFS came out that the euro often delays the ejection of sw energy too much. This looks to be the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro has the 2nd system brushing the coast with snow New Year's Day...obv la la land but something to keep a eye on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I would dismiss this normally except there's a very strong high pressing south. It reminds of 2007 where it was in the 70s one day and sleeting two days later. You also see this a lot over in Texas/OKC and the other plain states, which normally leads to significant icing events. Don't mean to pick on you but hmmm , now this reminds you of 07 ? 3 days ago this reminded you of 11/12 as you opined a snow less winter could be on tap. During the early fall it reminded you of 97/98. What's with the moving target ? Pick a year or set of years , use objective guidance and ride it out. I think snowman is a nut , but he has his years and he doesn't deviate Respectable. Hes wrong but respectable. I'm just trying to keep up that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Don't mean to pick on you but hmmm , now this reminds you of 07 ? 3 days ago this reminded you of 11/12 as you opined a snow less winter could be on tap. During the early fall it reminded you of 97/98. What's with the moving target ? Pick a year or set of years , use objective guidance and ride it out. I think snowman is a nut , but he has his years and he doesn't deviate Respectable. Hes wrong but respectable. I'm just trying to keep up that's all. I thought this season would evolve like 06/07 and no I never said anything about 11/12 because I acknowledged that was a CONUS wide warm winter unlike this year. I said this system reminded me of systems from 2007, which is the season I've been targeting if you want to hold me accountable hence why I've always believed Feb would be the best winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I thought this season would evolve like 06/07 and no I never said anything about 11/12 because I acknowledged that was a CONUS wide warm winter unlike this year. I said this system reminded me of systems from 2007, which is the season I've been targeting if you want to hold me accountable hence why I've always believed Feb would be the best winter month. It's a weather board we don't owe each other anything. I was just seeking clarification as to which analog you were looking too. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Day 15 12z GFS ensembles continue with pushing that ridge on the WC , sticks the trough in the east and it's 2m anomalies are BN Cough cough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Day 15 12z GFS ensembles continue with pushing that ridge on the WC , sticks the trough in the east and it's 2m anomalies are BN Cough cough. I like the look of the Euro at 240. -EPO signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So many positive looking changes on today's models. Really can't understand this insistence that we cannot get snow with near or slightly below temps in early January. I also do not agree with the posts about more record warmth the second week of January. I'm not seeing it. Besides the NW threat next week, pay attention to the 1st timeframe. Best chance for snow of the season around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I have no agenda other than to get the forecast right. Also, the timing for this would be 7 days away... I've seen a lot of this on the twitter sphere recently...people thinking that anyone who puts an ENSO filter on the MJO composites has an agenda. That's not remotely the case. What I'm pointing out is that ENSO filtered MJO analogs right now would argue a lot more blocking than is realistically possible right now because of a strong stratospheric PV among other things. I don't think the MJO is actually present right now. Upon examination of 200hpa VP, the upper divergence signal appears to be non-propagating. If so, the MJO can't really be utilized for any argument regarding the long term pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/679405546747858944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So many positive looking changes on today's models. Really can't understand this insistence that we cannot get snow with near or slightly below temps in early January. I also do not agree with the posts about more record warmth the second week of January. I'm not seeing it. Besides the NW threat next week, pay attention to the 1st timeframe. Best chance for snow of the season around that time. Gefs shows alot of ridging towards alaska, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So many positive looking changes on today's models. Really can't understand this insistence that we cannot get snow with near or slightly below temps in early January. I also do not agree with the posts about more record warmth the second week of January. I'm not seeing it. Besides the NW threat next week, pay attention to the 1st timeframe. Best chance for snow of the season around that time. people think that we need -15 departures for snow for some reason....that's actually the last thing you want which would just be dry and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/679405546747858944 Okay? Judah cohen just posted stating that he loves what he sees on the gfs. You do know there are other things to take into consideration besides the strong enso. It seems like he loves a warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 judah cohen is a snake oil salesman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If the Euro's right, I might see snow in the air before most of you this winter. Accumulating snow on the 12z run gets a decent way into the Hill Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If the Euro's right, I might see snow in the air before most of you this winter. Accumulating snow on the 12z run gets a decent way into the Hill Country. How come you moved? Wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 judah cohen is a snake oil salesman I suggest you try selling snake oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 judah cohen is a snake oil salesman if he hyped warmth and rain, you'd love him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 nobody finds it suspicious that his sai r value plummeted after he unveiled it to the world and it got put under scrutiny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 judah cohen is a snake oil salesman Now hold on Fork, the guy has a PhD, let's give him a little wiggle room....it's not like he's JB or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Heavy rainfall and fog pretty nasty out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Now hold on Fork, the guy has a PhD, let's give him a little wiggle room....it's not like he's JB or something... This winter either proves or disproves his theory!!! He wins or crashes and burns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This winter either proves or disproves his theory!!! He wins or crashes and burns last year had one of the highest sai's on record and the ao was positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah...only a complete peen would call someone attempting to improve the meteorology field in an area where help is desperately needed, BUT, Cohen looked kinda bad last year...trying to claim the Boston record was due to his theory. This year will be telling. I mean, there could easily be a multi-year component to testing the theory that we are just unaware of at this point. I don't even think if this year's very high SAI results in a -AO for late J-F-M, it means his theory is legit. Going to take years of testing and analysis to make that determination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 last year had one of the highest sai's on record and the ao was positive True, he won but for the wrong reasons Personally I think his theory has merit but it's just a small peice of the puzzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This winter either proves or disproves his theory!!! He wins or crashes and burns No it doesn't. Will take years to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 True, he won but for the wrong reasons Personally I think his theory has merit but it's just a small peice of the puzzle Agree with this. I think he is onto something, but it will take years to play out. Gotta love other mets who trash the guy as he is actually doing work to further the field. So he took credit for last year prematurely. Nobody's perfect, least of all the people who criticize him so vocally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How come you moved? Wow.. Started a new job down here in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 No it doesn't. Will take years to know. He kind of alluded to that during his (full half hour special) on the weather channel. But granted you are technically correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.