LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GFS being the GFS as usual. Once again this will be an exercise in futility wishing for an I-95 snowstorm that isn't happening. +AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO. That does not equal I-95 snowstorm, never has never will. it couldn't possibly get anymore hostile I don't think anyone said I-95 But there is truth to what you are saying This fits perfectly with my inland elevated theorie. And when I say inland elevated I mean 84 north and 1,000' or higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like the pattern improves from 12/27-1/7 with a western Canada ridge and more -EPO. Could give us a couple threats, the first on Tuesday. Still expecting a warm pattern to return from appx. 1/10-1/20 as the vortex moves back over the EPO/WPO regions. At least we have a window, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like the pattern improves from 12/27-1/7 with a western Canada ridge and more -EPO. Could give us a couple threats, the first on Tuesday. Still expecting a warm pattern to return from appx. 1/10-1/20 as the vortex moves back over the EPO/WPO regions. At least we have a window, though. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This 11/12 had a window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What are you going to do differently? It's not like you'll ignore a storm if it comes after your deadline. Its the 'ole Freudian impulse...the need to threaten repercussions if that internal drive is not satisfied...."give me my snow, or else!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like the pattern improves from 12/27-1/7 with a western Canada ridge and more -EPO. Could give us a couple threats, the first on Tuesday. Still expecting a warm pattern to return from appx. 1/10-1/20 as the vortex moves back over the EPO/WPO regions. At least we have a window, though. How much snow does nyc normally see before xmas, anyway? Seal a deal or two during that 10 day window, and suddenly the season isn't that horrific anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I don't think anyone said I-95 But there is truth to what you are saying This fits perfectly with my inland elevated theorie. And when I say inland elevated I mean 84 north and 1,000' or higher Not sure elevation will be too much help in this situation. Warm air will be flooding in aloft. But yeah, areas north of I-84 in the Hudson Valley could see quite a bit of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How much snow does nyc normally see before xmas, anyway? Seal a deal or two during that 10 day window, and suddenly the season isn't that horrific anymore. Bingo. Would be better than last year where were were essentially shut out until 1/21 (other than a random inch here or there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Also, I'm a bit wary of long term forecasts. It's fun to speculate but sometimes they aren't helpful at all. This December was unusual in that all mets were unanimous in forecasting above average temps well in advance. And even then, no one predicted that it be would this warm. Same with last February. No one really foresaw the kind of cold we had last year until it was upon us. If you recall, many people (on here and elsewhere) were starting to throw in the towel for that winter until the Euro picked up on that monster blizzard in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 FWIW, ENSO filtered JAN MJO phase 7. It's low correaltion since there are so few examples, and the blocking portion of this is likely overdone (i.e., there's very little probability of this pattern this year being nearly as blocked up). New Years timeframe does look like it will introduce a brief period of variability to the pattern however. Edit: Here's what DEC looks like fwiw as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sunday close to 70 and Tuesday morning sleet with temps below 32 Denverish. It would be ironic if some of us thread the needle and get sone frozen precip given all the complaints and bickering about this spring, I mean early winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Not sure elevation will be too much help in this situation. Warm air will be flooding in aloft. But yeah, areas north of I-84 in the Hudson Valley could see quite a bit of ice. Elevation always helps. Except when you're really looking for CAD. Goes to show how this El Niño is not fitting the other super analogs. Normally you would see allot of marginal airmass storms where elevation is your only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS still holding on to a snow/mix event for the interior on Tuesday/Wed, snow/rain for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How much snow does nyc normally see before xmas, anyway? Seal a deal or two during that 10 day window, and suddenly the season isn't that horrific anymore. A single poster here said look at the HV which looked reasonable off that 1 op run , I would like to be N of the pike for this one if you ask me but how that got extrapolated into an I95 fight I must have missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 And I'm flying out Tuesday morning to New Mexico where temps will be in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 A single poster here said look at the HV which looked reasonable off that 1 op run , I would like to be N of the pike for this one if you ask me but how that got extrapolated into an I95 fight I must have missed that. I'm thinking a 2-4" front ender here at best, and a good cne/nne jit. I'm about 15 mi n of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 For sh**s and giggles here's a weenie map... I would like to see something other than the GFS on board with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Also, I'm a bit wary of long term forecasts. It's fun to speculate but sometimes they aren't helpful at all. This December was unusual in that all mets were unanimous in forecasting above average temps well in advance. And even then, no one predicted that it be would this warm. Same with last February. No one really foresaw the kind of cold we had last year until it was upon us. If you recall, many people (on here and elsewhere) were starting to throw in the towel for that winter until the Euro picked up on that monster blizzard in late January. You well never, ever see anyone predict 3SD anomalies, whether they be positive or negative departures. Ever, and with good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 " Here is a map suggesting we may eventually see some blocking this season, but it doesn't fit my agenda, so ignore that part" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro ftw? Its faster with the storm this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro ftw? Its faster with the storm this run You mean GFS if it's right. Euro is faster with the storm and has a better placed high this run compare to the 0z run. It's nice like the GFS but pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 You mean GFS if it's right. Euro is faster with the storm and has a better placed high this run compare to the 0z run. It's nice like the GFS but pretty close.[/quote Yeah thats what I meant lol. Yeah that HP is in a lovely place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro got colder for Monday night... 1-2 of slop for metro area...2-4 north and west of city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFS leading the way...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I would dismiss this normally except there's a very strong high pressing south. It reminds of 2007 where it was in the 70s one day and sleeting two days later. You also see this a lot over in Texas/OKC and the other plain states, which normally leads to significant icing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 " Here is a map suggesting we may eventually see some blocking this season, but it doesn't fit my agenda, so ignore that part" I have no agenda other than to get the forecast right. Also, the timing for this would be 7 days away... I've seen a lot of this on the twitter sphere recently...people thinking that anyone who puts an ENSO filter on the MJO composites has an agenda. That's not remotely the case. What I'm pointing out is that ENSO filtered MJO analogs right now would argue a lot more blocking than is realistically possible right now because of a strong stratospheric PV among other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I have no agenda other than to get the forecast right. I've seen a lot of this on the twitter sphere recently...people thinking that anyone who puts an ENSO filter on the MJO composites has an agenda. That's not remotely the case. What I'm pointing out is that ENSO filtered MJO analogs right now would argue a lot more blocking than is realistically possible right now because of a strong stratospheric PV among other things. Oh, you meant currently. I apologize for the joke......I misinterpreted. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I would dismiss this normally except there's a very strong high pressing south. It reminds of 2007 where it was in the 70s one day and sleeting two days later. You also see this a lot over in Texas/OKC and the other plain states, which normally leads to significant icing events. Good analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Oh, you meant currently. I apologize for the joke......I misinterpreted. My bad. No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Every model is also showing a storm around the New Year. ( Coastal ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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