SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Not sure if you are following that closely but we flip/step down day 10 not day 15 Days 10 thru 14 looks N to BN.. OK. So what period Is well AN ? Early , Mid or Late Jan and which guidance are you basing it on , I want to take a peak. Cool shot early Jan that's transient followed by more warming. There's nothing that indicates a sustained pattern for even near normal temps. AO/NAO stay positive. Canadian ensembles and CFS for Jan. The euro ensembles have also been shuffling back and forth the past few days which makes for a low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It might be over.Record El Nino,record breaking temps,this is 72-73 and 97-98 rolled into one.In my 57 years of life, I can't remember a warm winter stretch like this.Anybody who thinks this is going to turn around in a hurry isn't looking at weather history.The Pacific air is overwhelming the pattern like it does every strong nino.It just dominates every other factor.So yep I'm close to punting 15-16 if I don't see any change in the next few weeks. I think it prudent to stay the course until Jan 15th, if we are still locked in with record warmth I doubt we recover from that...obviously we can get a storm in February but the odds will be stacked against us on the coast. Crazy how there is no snow or cold for everyone east of the Mississippi River...historic month and probably the worst we will ever see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cool shot early Jan that's transient followed by more warming. There's nothing that indicates a sustained pattern for even near normal temps. AO/NAO stay positive. Canadian ensembles and CFS for Jan. The euro ensembles have also been shuffling back and forth the past few days which makes for a low confidence forecast. Judah along with other meteorologists are predicting the pattern to really change come later January. People gave up also in December last winter . Im going to be patient on this one. They dont call me a weenie for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I think it prudent to stay the course until Jan 15th, if we are still locked in with record warmth I doubt we recover from that...obviously we can get a storm in February but the odds will be stacked against us on the coast. Crazy how there is no snow or cold for everyone east of the Mississippi River...historic month and probably the worst we will ever see During the summer with a record breaking nino forming,I thought something like this was a possibility.Not this warm lol..but looking back at other strong nino's ,it didn't leave me hopeful..You get one of these nino's,once every 15 years and I guess you have to deal with it and know next year at this time, it could be totally different.And we really can't complain..we have had some blockbuster winters in the last 10 to 15 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Alot of people are going have busted forecasts if winter never comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It might be over.Record El Nino,record breaking temps,this is 72-73 and 97-98 rolled into one.In my 57 years of life, I can't remember a warm winter stretch like this.Anybody who thinks this is going to turn around in a hurry isn't looking at weather history.The Pacific air is overwhelming the pattern like it does every strong nino.It just dominates every other factor.So yep I'm close to punting 15-16 if I don't see any change in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cool shot early Jan that's transient followed by more warming. There's nothing that indicates a sustained pattern for even near normal temps. AO/NAO stay positive. Canadian ensembles and CFS for Jan. The euro ensembles have also been shuffling back and forth the past few days which makes for a low confidence forecast. I have posted on the Euro ensembles for 5 days. They have done nothing but gotten colder in the day 10 thru 14 .There has been ZERO shuffling on the Euro but as always the same idiots who dismissed that upcoming 5 day period just ignore their terrible analysis and jump even further out. -EPO/+PNA send HP through the lakes. If you lock that off and stick a trough in the SE , you end the torch. Where are all the posters who 5 days ago said day those day 15 maps looked like the same ole pattern ? Where do you guys go when you miss a 5 day period ? I guess they can see day 15 to 25 after missing day 10 to 15 . Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It might be over.Record El Nino,record breaking temps,this is 72-73 and 97-98 rolled into one.In my 57 years of life, I can't remember a warm winter stretch like this.Anybody who thinks this is going to turn around in a hurry isn't looking at weather history.The Pacific air is overwhelming the pattern like it does every strong nino.It just dominates every other factor.So yep I'm close to punting 15-16 if I don't see any change in the next few weeks. What are you going to do differently? It's not like you'll ignore a storm if it comes after your deadline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS is colder for the storm on Monday and Tuesday. Freezing line gets down near NYC. Big ice signal if true, especially for interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS looks colder for monday storm. You would want to be 15-20 miles west of the immediate coast, for a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS looks colder for monday storm. You would want to be 15-20 miles west of the immediate coast, for a better chance. It continues to get colder. New england gets al ot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HV gets crushed. close to a foot showing up for NNJ, and HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 probably counting sleet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 everyone's been busy barking about the long range, they are missing the storm right in front of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It continues to get colder. New england gets al ot of snow. At least it's something worth looking at. Could be a huge sigh of relief for many ski zones in C/N New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It continues to get colder. New england gets al ot of snow. What are other models showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What are other models showing? GFS ejects the precip quicker than the other models. The GGEM went colder but not cold like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Guys forget about next month for a minute lol... We have a storm to track for 12/28.. 12z GFS came in alot colder especially for the interior. Could get interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 A few chances of snow on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 better hope the canadian, ukmet, and euro are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 better hope the canadian, ukmet, and euro are wrongThe GFS being the GFS as usual. Once again this will be an exercise in futility wishing for an I-95 snowstorm that isn't happening. +AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO. That does not equal I-95 snowstorm, never has never will. it couldn't possibly get anymore hostile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GFS being the GFS as usual. Once again this will be an exercise in futility wishing for an I-95 snowstorm that isn't happening. +AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO. That does not equal I-95 snowstorm, never has never will. it couldn't possibly get anymore hostile Go back to sleep. No one is wishing for a snowstorm. We are just discussing the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GFS being the GFS as usual. Once again this will be an exercise in futility wishing for an I-95 snowstorm that isn't happening. +AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO. That does not equal I-95 snowstorm, never has never will. it couldn't possibly get anymore hostile Link us up to those here claiming its a "I-95 snowstorm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GFS being the GFS as usual. Once again this will be an exercise in futility wishing for an I-95 snowstorm that isn't happening. +AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO. That does not equal I-95 snowstorm, never has never will. it couldn't possibly get anymore hostile who'll calling for an I95 snowstorm???-it's an interior threat as noted. Maybe the coast sees some snow or sleet to start. Hell of a lot better than 65 and damp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GFS being the GFS as usual. Once again this will be an exercise in futility wishing for an I-95 snowstorm that isn't happening. +AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO. That does not equal I-95 snowstorm, never has never will. it couldn't possibly get anymore hostile If he wants to follow it,he has every right to do so...that's why he's on this board.It's a weather board.There is a possibility here..Sorry there are no 70 degree temps to post next week for you.You have had many thrills that last 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sunday close to 70 and Tuesday morning sleet with temps below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Occasionally you can get snow in a terrible pattern if the timing is perfect, which is probably why it's nearly impossible to see zero snowfall for the entire winter at 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sunday close to 70 and Tuesday morning sleet with temps below 32 going to be a shock to the system. Even if we don't get frozen, we're talking 35-40 cold rains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 going to be a shock to the system. Even if we don't get frozen, we're talking 35-40 cold rains.... Yep! That's a pretty strong high pressure coming in, probably the coldest air of this month lol. SNE looks to be in a good spot for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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