Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The 00z Euro has heavy rain areawide on Christmas night with temps in the 40's. That ridge is pretty dominating but the cold air isn't that far away. I've seen that on a few models, yet Upton has almost no rain for us after tonight? Nam was wet too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GOA low will retrograde......anyone who would like to debate that, have at it....good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The AO/NAO is very debatable......but there is a lot of data supporting the idea that we will eventually see some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I've seen that on a few models, yet Upton has almost no rain for us after tonight? Nam was wet too The GFS doesn't have much so they probably went with a 50/50 blend which would bring a chance of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I've seen that on a few models, yet Upton has almost no rain for us after tonight? Nam was wet too I have a slight chance of rain tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Of course we haven't because its always raging positive throughout the first 3/4 of the season. I'm not talking about the majority of the winter...I don't give a rat's azz about December and most of January. Regardless, why would anyone ever question the formidable sample size of three. Agreed. What looks warm on day 15 at 18k feet advertise N 850s anomalies it's -5 at 850 cold enough for what we need . We don't live at 18k ft so why not focus on why it's colder at 5k feet. Here's why. 1. It's 15 days away and the greatest heights are still west. When you see a -epo/pna In the means you are probably sending HP through the lakes. So day 15 is saying plus 3 at the surface In mid Jan . Not a torch and doesnt even qualify as warm. Look at what day 11 thru 14 look like -2 -3 anomalies at 850 . We are pinning the OLR anomalies back between 160 and 180 you will pull that NEG sw of AK and that will kick the ridge up on the W shores of HB . You can see where the greatest heights develop over the next 30 days on the weeklies. The -epo is going neg the pna will go pos I will take my chances with a better Pac driven pattern . The torch is over by day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What looks warm on day 15 at 18k feet advertise N 850s anomalies it's -5 at 850 cold enough for what we need . We don't live at 18k ft so why not focus on why it's colder at 5k feet. Here's why. 1. It's 15 days away and the greatest heights are still west. When you see a -epo/pna In the means you are probably sending HP through the lakes. So day 15 is saying plus 3 at the surface In mid Jan . Not a torch and doesnt even qualify as warm. Look at what day 11 thru 14 look like -2 -3 anomalies at 850 . We are pinning the OLR anomalies back between 160 and 180 you will pull that NEG sw of AK and that will kick the ridge up on the W shores of HB . You can see where the greatest heights develop over the next 30 days on the weeklies. The -epo is going neg the pna will go pos I will take my chances with a better Pac driven pattern . The torch is over by day 10 I was hanging out with Mike Ventrice of WSI and a bunch of guys from the board on Monday night, and Mike agreed adamantly that the forcing was already shifting back toward the dateline. He also said that the IO, which has been killing us, is finally dying, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What looks warm on day 15 at 18k feet advertise N 850s anomalies it's -5 at 850 cold enough for what we need . We don't live at 18k ft so why not focus on why it's colder at 5k feet. Here's why. 1. It's 15 days away and the greatest heights are still west. When you see a -epo/pna In the means you are probably sending HP through the lakes. So day 15 is saying plus 3 at the surface In mid Jan . Not a torch and doesnt even qualify as warm. Look at what day 11 thru 14 look like -2 -3 anomalies at 850 . We are pinning the OLR anomalies back between 160 and 180 you will pull that NEG sw of AK and that will kick the ridge up on the W shores of HB . You can see where the greatest heights develop over the next 30 days on the weeklies. The -epo is going neg the pna will go pos I will take my chances with a better Pac driven pattern . The torch is over by day 10 A much better pattern if we want to see wintry weather should be developing just after the new year. I hope Cohen is right with the two attacks on the PV leading to a -AO in the 2nd half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 A much better pattern if we want to see wintry weather should be developing just after the new year. I hope Cohen is right with the two attacks on the PV leading to a -AO in the 2nd half of January. I think that maybe rushing it, but we'll see: The latest weather model forecasts increase our confidence in a weakening or perturbed polar vortex in January (the GFS more so than the ECMWF and this needs to be closely monitored). It is becoming less of a question if the polar vortex weakens and more of a question of when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 the pac vortex moves east at the end of the eps run and the ao stays positive. i think we see more record highs in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I was hanging out with Mike Ventrice of WSI and a bunch of guys from the board on Monday night, and Mike agreed adamantly that the forcing was already shifting back toward the dateline. He also said that the IO, which has been killing us, is finally dying, Yeh I saw the pics . Kool hat jk. I think people are forgetting what the call was for this upcoming period we are discussing. Day 10 thru 15 , originally we opined it looked like a week of plus 2 or 3 . Now that period looks closer to N as the euro at 0z are colder day 11 thru 14 . There is no abyss in the guidance but no torch either. It just needs to be cold enough . N in early to mid Jan is a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 the pac vortex moves east at the end of the eps run and the ao stays positive. i think we see more record highs in january Yep. The times they are a changin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeh I saw the pics . Kool hat jk. I think people are forgetting what the call was for this upcoming period we are discussing. Day 10 thru 15 , originally we opined it looked like a week of plus 2 or 3 . Now that period looks closer to N as the euro at 0z are colder day 11 thru 14 . There is no abyss in the guidance but no torch either. It just needs to be cold enough . N in early to mid Jan is a start. I just pretty much said the same thing.....people are obsessing over each model suite of trees, and losing sight of the outlooked seasonal forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 the pac vortex moves east at the end of the eps run and the ao stays positive. i think we see more record highs in january Yep, going to be a lot of angst for the middle two weeks of Jan, not done with 50F's (+10F departures) in NE. Not sure 40/70 and PBGFI are going to keep everyone from not hurling themselves off the cliff. Going to take more time in the east to get things going, maybe we get lucky first week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yep. The times they are a changinDid you actually go and look for yourself and see it retrograde day 14 and 15 at 500 or if he said the sky is purple , would you just rush in here and say "yep" to that bad analysis as well ? The NEG S of AK pops west at the end of the range and it will tug the heights west too. The Euro washes out the trough on the EC in the LR . You will NOT push a ridge east of the lakes with that NEG that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I just pretty much said the same thing.....people are obsessing over each model suite of trees, and losing sight of the outlooked seasonal forest. weenies live and die by each run of the OP models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yep, going to be a lot of angst for the middle two weeks of Jan, not done with 50F's (+10F departures) in NE. Not sure 40/70 and PBGFI are going to keep everyone from not hurling themselves off the cliff. Going to take more time in the east to get things going, maybe we get lucky first week of Jan.We live at 40 N on the coastal plain we don't avoid 50 in great patterns. Troughs in great patterns tend to pull back when they pulse and 50 is par for the course here ..No one says you don't see 50 . But you don't see 50 for 5 days 7 days etc. The call was for week 1 to be N and for me I have always like the change between the 10th and 15th. I am plus 3 for Jan. I don't see frigid I don't see torch. But I do see the guidance And the times they are a changin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 the pac vortex moves east at the end of the eps run and the ao stays positive. i think we see more record highs in january It's starting to look pretty ugly for that Jan 10 timeframe, tend to agree. Maybe not record, but above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I do find it interesting where the NAM puts the front (12Z) on Xmas vice where the 6Z GFS has it. now with snow off the table I am tracking clouds and drizzle which I am pulling for at this point. full sun in this pattern would be a pressure cooker. at least with clouds I can imagine its cold outside and it may stay below 70. just using what I have been given to work with which is a bag of slotted screws and 12 Phillips screwdrivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 the pac vortex moves east at the end of the eps run and the ao stays positive. i think we see more record highs in january delete, double post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's starting to look pretty ugly for that Jan 10 timeframe, tend to agree. it's 2006-07 like and it was 72 degrees the first week in January 2007...will there be a second half change this year like that year?...only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I swear everyday someone talks about big changes it always revolves around day 14-15 maps. I don't think we're done with the record highs either. The super torch may end but AN to well AN is still more probable than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Day 15 That NEG heads "west". The tough deepens in Europe . The ridge goes up east of the Caspian . The ridge is on the W shores of HB. All argue for a trough in the E . Day 15 will get colder on the Euro as we get closer Just as we saw day 10 thu 14 1st several days ago here that you see has gotten colder over the past few days , the same voices said that original idea was wrong I think we won the day 10 thru 14 battle , we will see how this one works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Wow, alot of mixed opinions about the pattern.You should have seen twitter last night. It was a Twitter meteorologist war going on in regards to the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 it's 2006-07 like and it was 72 degrees the first week in January 2007...will there be a second half change this year like that year?...only time will tell... And what a turnaround that year-Feb and March were frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's starting to look pretty ugly for that Jan 10 timeframe, tend to agree. 18 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 it's 2006-07 like and it was 72 degrees the first week in January 2007...will there be a second half change this year like that year?...only time will tell... That season is nearly a perfect analog, save for the fact that everything is accentuated this year because ENSO is so much more potent. Could work to our advantage down the road.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I swear everyday someone talks about big changes it always revolves around day 14-15 maps. I don't think we're done with the record highs either. The super torch may end but AN to well AN is still more probable than not. Not sure if you are following that closely but we flip/step down day 10 not day 15 Days 10 thru 14 looks N to BN.. OK. So what period Is well AN ? Early , Mid or Late Jan and which guidance are you basing it on , I want to take a peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It might be over.Record El Nino,record breaking temps,this is 72-73 and 97-98 rolled into one.In my 57 years of life, I can't remember a warm winter stretch like this.Anybody who thinks this is going to turn around in a hurry isn't looking at weather history.The Pacific air is overwhelming the pattern like it does every strong nino.It just dominates every other factor.So yep I'm close to punting 15-16 if I don't see any change in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's starting to look pretty ugly for that Jan 10 timeframe, tend to agree. Yep. HM tweeted out we are not done with the record warmth...the week of the 10th looks like more as the pna ridge breaks down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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