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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Spring, summer and fall all can go eat it for all I care. At this point winter can too the way it's looking. I mean come on its December 2nd and we haven't even had a flurry here in the city. That's embarrassing to tell anyone. And I don't see a flurry in the next 10 days! I have never been do disappointed from this El Niño. I remember the 97-98 El Niño we got a measly 5 inches of snow in March it was disgusting I just kept waiting and waiting and finally I got some, it was an early morning snowfall that honestly nobody in the media predicted so it was a surprise. The day before we had the snow we had a high of 34 with some ice and sleet combined with rain but no snow. At least we got some snow I'm sure we'll get some this year too but I'm so impatient that each day I check the models they look warmer and warmer. Hopefully this trends the other way. Take care my fellow weenies!

#TonyForPrez2016

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Dec 03 and Dec 09 were El Nino, however. I agree that Ninas tend to be colder in Dec like 2010, but that is not always the case.

 

Yes, they were Nino, I didn't separate them out because I just wanted the general signal. I also agree that it's not always the case, nothing in weather is always the case. Too many variables.

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the last six years have been the snowiest six year period on record...the average is 42.4"...1943-44 to 1948-49 averaged 37.1"...2000-01 to 2005-06 averaged 35.2"...1912-13 to 1917-18 averaged 36.8...1902-03 to 1907-08 " averaged 35.9"...1878-79 to 1883-84 average 35.4"...On the flip side 1926-27 to 1931-32 averaged 13.5"...1996-97 to 2001-02 averaged 13.8"...1949-50 to 1954-55 averaged 14.6"...1970-71 to 1975-76 averaged 15.9"...1986-87 to 1990-91 averaged 16.9"...

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Move to Barrow then if all you want is winter. It's only "summer" there for a couple months out of the year and never hot.

i don't care too much about the cold I just love snow, feet of it you guys know this. Besides I wouldn't want to move to barrow they only get 38 inches of snow per year. We usually average around 30 here but honestly what bothers me the most is the high humidity during the peak of the summer. Hopefully the models start trending towards some snow. GFS 18z was hinting at that...
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18z GFS had something interesting a week before Christmas, though it could still be rain or sleet in parts. Way out there but nice to see the model starting to show anything at all finally,

People might be writting off December a little too fast if the 2nd half of December gets cold.

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People might be writting off December a little too fast if the 2nd half of December gets cold.

If a block can somehow get established over Greenland, it might depress the STJ enough to allow something to slip far enough underneath for it to be snow. But otherwise, the Pacific jet is running wild. It's really more of a Nina pattern at this point believe it or not, with the Northwest constantly getting slammed with much of CA dry, and the low over the Gulf of Alaska. 

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If a block can somehow get established over Greenland, it might depress the STJ enough to allow something to slip far enough underneath for it to be snow. But otherwise, the Pacific jet is running wild. It's really more of a Nina pattern at this point believe it or not, with the Northwest constantly getting slammed with much of CA dry, and the low over the Gulf of Alaska. 

I am tracking the coastal rainstorm for next week. :weenie:

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If a block can somehow get established over Greenland, it might depress the STJ enough to allow something to slip far enough underneath for it to be snow. But otherwise, the Pacific jet is running wild. It's really more of a Nina pattern at this point believe it or not, with the Northwest constantly getting slammed with much of CA dry, and the low over the Gulf of Alaska.

I was thinking the same thing, where's all the SoCal rain!! It's definitely not a normal Nino. I think allot of this has to do with the warm anomalies off the west coast

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The CFS still has the next 8 months with above normal temps.    Spring already pegged here  at +4 and our summer at +2.    Of course if the winter  forecast is wrong at +5, all that follows is suspect.  Good Luck.    The ensemble mean 2mT here in NYC does not even reach the normal line for the next  60 days and just keeps adding another day, every day.   Even Joe DiMaggio could not pull that off.

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The CFS still has the next 8 months with above normal temps. Spring already pegged here at +4 and our summer at +2. Of course if the winter forecast is wrong at +5, all that follows is suspect. Good Luck. The ensemble mean 2mT here in NYC does not even reach the normal line for the next 60 days and just keeps adding another day, every day. Even Joe DiMaggio could not pull that off.

It's not out of the realm of possibility. As I have been saying we were the ice cube in a giant tub of boiling water last February. It wouldn't take much for us to be on the wrong side of things this time around

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