CIK62 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Officially at least, the government mets see no change in next 2 weeks: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 There is no chance day 1 thru 10 . The trough is in the east day 11 thru 15 . I showed both the Euro and GFS at 500 it is up to each reader if they believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I will be setting off fireworks on 4th of July errr umm Christmas Eve this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Officially at least, the government mets see no change in next 2 weeks: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ When was the last time you saw them using the 90% probability for days 6-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/23/nyregion/white-christmas-not-a-chance-in-an-unusually-balmy-new-york.html?_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The first week of Jan. looks only moderately better than the period we are leaving behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The first week of Jan. looks only moderately better than the period we are leaving behind. If you are referring to day 11 thru 15 then you don't know what you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If you are referring to day 11 thru 15 then you don't know what you are looking at. He has a secret model called the GFSxyz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The first week of Jan. looks only moderately better than the period we are leaving behind.Ugh. No. At all levels of the atmosphere it is gigantically better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Let's see if the 00z models show us some cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The first week of Jan. looks only moderately better than the period we are leaving behind. It looks a lot better than what we are seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It looks a lot better than what we are seeing now. We need allot more the allot better. We need the arctic to let go. Until then it's going to be even more depressing at the coast. 30/40s with rain is pretty much the worst weather out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storm around the New Year to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storm around the New Year to watch? 06 GFS has a ridge in the west, trough In The east. Return to near normal temps for early Jan, then mid Jan gets Very interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This would be a nasty look for interior if it held Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 06 GFS has a ridge in the west, trough In The east. Return to near normal temps for early Jan, then mid Jan gets Very interesting.... Agree somewhat, but then again, not really. +PNA ridge bridge, some indication of a developing -NAO for the following week, which is supported by the development of a Scandinavian ridge next week. Aleutian low has retrograded to a decent spot. We should have a few opportunities for frozen, but overall, a long ways off from an ideal look. But not even close to where we need the PV out to Jan 8. In fact, I think the 10hpa forecast is very discouraging. Look how cold and strong the PV still is even heading into mid Jan. The second week of Jan is forecast to have a very strong SSWE, much stronger than anything we've seen so far, but the PV just might be too strong to overcome. 1958's PV split didn't come until very late in January. I would say we have until January 20th or so to see the PV meaningfully displace or split, or...we're cooked and doomed to have a 2011-2012 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Most models now have a piece of the tropo PV sitting over the Davis Strait for the back end of the 11-15 day period, stratosphere at 50mb is pretty discouraging for any longer lasting flip to a cold pattern involving significant blocking. Continue to operate under the idea that any potential longer lasting flip to significant blocking has a better chance of happening later rather than sooner. That's not to say you can't get storm induced volatility (you can and likely will, it likely won't be as anomalously warm as it has been which is not a big call when you're +30), but longer term ideas of a flip from aboves to belows on the temperature side don't look great to me. It's not a death knell for storms overall, and we can and likely will have spurts of seasonal to slightly cooler weather for a day or two at a time. If you get a storm to line up with that, there's a chance for perhaps a quick interior event. However, this is still a poor pattern for any appreciable cold to lock in for any length of time should you believe model guidance today. Absent model guidance, I'd argue the background state isn't particularly favorable either. Today's European Ensemble day 15 is discouraging and would likely support broad warmth across much of the northern tier of the US. The GFS ens at the end of the period isn't much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 For what it's worth, think there's an opening for a couple of colder days right around New Years. Pattern argues for a bit more volatility than we've seen. That part of the discussion being had in here is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Most models now have a piece of the tropo PV sitting over the Davis Strait for the back end of the 11-15 day period, which is generally a terrible sign for the NAO to flip negative. Stratosphere at 50mb is pretty discouraging for any longer lasting flip to a cold pattern involving significant blocking. Continue to operate under the idea that any potential longer lasting flip to significant blocking has a better chance of happening later rather than sooner. That's not to say you can't get storm induced volatility (you can and likely will, it likely won't be as anomalously warm as it has been which is not a big call when you're +30), but longer term ideas of a flip from aboves to belows on the temperature side don't look great to me. It's not a death knell for storms overall, and we can and likely will have spurts of seasonal to slightly cooler weather for a day or two at a time. If you get a storm to line up with that, there's a chance for perhaps a quick interior event. However, this is still a poor pattern for any appreciable cold to lock in for any length of time should you believe model guidance today. Absent model guidance, I'd argue the background state isn't particularly favorable either. Today's European Ensemble day 15 is discouraging and would likely support broad warmth across much of the northern tier of the US. The GFS ens at the end of the period isn't much better. The long range got very ugly looking. Even if we get some semblance of -AO and -NAO at the end of January, I very seriously doubt the EPO cooperates now. I'm quickly loosing faith in the ideas I had a week ago for the end of January and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 He was a green tagger with the power and ability to do something about it and chose to do nothing. There is more to it than that. Leave it alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The long range got very ugly looking. Even if we get some semblance of -AO and -NAO at the end of January, I very seriously doubt the EPO cooperates now. I'm quickly loosing faith in the ideas I had a week ago for the end of January and February I will say it's getting harder and harder to make an argument for blocking developing around mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I will say it's getting harder and harder to make an argument for blocking developing around mid-month. I'd be surprised if we get any at all. someone posted a stat showing how little blocking there has been since March 2013. Seems like we may have started another longer term positive stretch and that big pool of cold water S of Greenland argues for a positive NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'd be surprised if we get any at all. someone posted a stat showing how little blocking there has been since March 2013. Seems like we may have started another longer term positive stretch The persistence argument is folly. If given a reason to flip, it will flip. In which direction had the EPO been biased over the course of the last few years? I don't really know of anyone who called for help from the Atlantic and arctic during the month of January. The prevailing thought has always been that some help from the Pacific would make the pattern more serviceable in January, and in February it would all come together. January is a transitional month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The persistence argument is folly. If given a reason to flip, it will flip. In which direction had the EPO been biased over the course of the last few years? I don't really know of anyone who called for help from the Atlantic and arctic during the month of January. The prevailing thought has always been that some help from the Pacific would make the pattern more serviceable in January, and in February it would all come together. January is a transitional month. The chances of getting sustained -EPO like we have had the last 3 winters with a Nino this strong are very very slim. You can make the argument for sustained +PNA, but prolonged -EPO? Don't bet on it. We have never had a -EPO winter along with a super El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The persistence argument is folly. If given a reason to flip, it will flip. In which direction had the EPO been biased over the course of the last few years? I don't really know of anyone who called for help from the Atlantic and arctic during the month of January. The prevailing thought has always been that some help from the Pacific would make the pattern more serviceable in January, and in February it would all come together. January is a transitional month. I've argued that it comes down to the EPO again like last year. We had zero help from the AO and NAO last year and did just fine. If we don't get a -EPO this year we are toast...that continued warm pool in the Pacific should help promote the -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I agree with snowman19. Wait, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The 00z Euro has heavy rain areawide on Christmas night with temps in the 40's. That ridge is pretty dominating but the cold air isn't that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The chances of getting sustained -EPO like we have had the last 3 winters with a Nino this strong are very very slim. You can make the argument for sustained +PNA, but prolonged -EPO? Don't bet on it. Agree with this for the time being. Later on in the season, not necessarily the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The chances of getting sustained -EPO like we have had the last 3 winters with a Nino this strong are very very slim. You can make the argument for sustained +PNA, but prolonged -EPO? Don't bet on it. We have never had a -EPO winter along with a super El Niño I think a piece of that will depend on how quickly the nino dissipates. Models show a sharp drop, but if there is any delay, then I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The chances of getting sustained -EPO like we have had the last 3 winters with a Nino this strong are very very slim. You can make the argument for sustained +PNA, but prolonged -EPO? Don't bet on it. We have never had a -EPO winter along with a super El Niño Of course we haven't because its always raging positive throughout the first 3/4 of the season. I'm not talking about the majority of the winter...I don't give a rat's azz about December and most of January. Regardless, why would anyone ever question the formidable sample size of three. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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