40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 If you guys truly want a pattern flip, your best bet is going to be blocking developing somewhere along the line. The problem, is that in a year like this, it's generally a better and safer assumption to assume later warming at the strat, later flip or weakening of the positive AO. The Pacific is going to have a tough time delivering the goods with minimal Arctic air to work with. Anyway, that's my contribution for the day. Take it easy folks and have a lovely holiday season. The seasonal progression of el nino, regardless of strength, is to retrograde the GOA low, and the PNA should become positive (constructive interference with el nino, as it is currently deconstructive), as it should in potent el nino events. I would be comfortable with a -EPO/+PNA for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Okay? Whats wrong with snow from late Jan through March? Nothing. I'm simply saying that we'll soon be getting snow since it's pretty much statistically improbable for their not to be snow in mid January. Though I wouldn't exactly say Jan through March. Just because we get thunderstorms in September, doesn't mean that September is our peak severe weather month. Snow chances begin to diminish greatly by early March, and same goes for severe weather in September, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yes, normal anomalies at 850 can lead to slight aboves at the surface. Especially with little in the way of appreciable snowcover (below normal snow cover, therefore more absorbed solar radiation at the surface due to bare ground having a lower albedo than snowcover). I had opined earlier It looked like a week ( day 11 -15 ) of plus 2 . Based off this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nittany can you give a link for that MJO is POS enso years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Some people are trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nittany can you give a link for that MJO is POS enso years http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ is a good place to start. That's freely available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 FWIW, here's Phase 1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 OK, now I really need to get back to work, Take care guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The reaction to the ensembles was a tad overdone IMO. Still shows a Scandinavian ridge and still rages the PNA albeit slightly less than prior runs. Cohen model still predicting two more SSWEs, the second of which disrupts the PV. Pattern change still on IMO much in the same way it evolved in 1957-58. Mid January as always advertised preceded by a return to near normal temps first week of Jan. PV displacement raises the chances of a blocky pattern which I agree we will need come February to achieve sustained cold outbreaks and snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Earlier, someone posted in one of the NYC threads that NYC's reported minimum temperature of 53° might be suspect. As the last three 6-hour periods have shown a minimum figure that is exactly 2° below the listed hourly figures, I've e-mailed Upton out of an abundance of caution. Between hour figures might well have come out 2° below the shown hourly readings. Personally, I'm not yet sure there is an issue, but thought I'd send the matter to NWS just to be on the safe side. That was me. Thank you. It's not like it's never faulty. It was faulty and they fixed it on Nov. 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 King Earthlight says no need to panic. Everything is still on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 King Earthlight says no need to panic. Everything is still on track. You mean that guy that used to post here but then abandoned us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yes, normal anomalies at 850 can lead to slight aboves at the surface. Especially with little in the way of appreciable snowcover (below normal snow cover, therefore more absorbed solar radiation at the surface due to bare ground having a lower albedo than snowcover). So plus 3 at 2M when sunny and dry but cold enough to snow N 850s are - 5 . Where can I sign . Small victory if the ensembles are right .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 You mean that guy that used to post here but then abandoned us? I wouldn't single him out...the majority of the other mets that used to post here are gone. They got tired of the immaturity Thankfully we still have some very solid posters and our last remaining mets to occasionally add to the discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The 18z NAM has 2-3" of rain for most of the area on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I wouldn't single him out...the majority of the other mets that used to post here are gone. They got tired of the immaturity Thankfully we still have some very solid posters and our last remaining mets to occasionally add to the discussions. He was a green tagger with the power and ability to do something about it and chose to do nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The 18z NAM has 2-3" of rain for most of the area on Christmas Eve. getting wetter every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That was me. Thank you. It's not like it's never faulty. It was faulty and they fixed it on Nov. 30. I just remembered reading it earlier in the day and took a look. It can't hurt to notify the NWS. Hopefully, the numbers are accurate. It will be interesting to see what today's daily climate summary shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Phase 8 is not a cold and snowy signal for January during strong El Ninos, as has already been pointed out. To take this further, here are a few strong Nino winters where the MJO went into phase 8 in January, look at the dates, not what you want to see, we all know what these January's were like: https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/679379290035720192 Another: https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/679381495681822721 And another: https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/679381495681822721 1998, 1983, 1992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the nino standing wave is messing with the mjo plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 DAY 1-5 DAY 11-15 Lets see if this holds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/662622807940014080 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 getting wetter every run We're almost in a Bermuda High ring of fire pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the nino standing wave is messing with the mjo plots The walker cell/circulation is all fooked up...pretty sure this is what ACC looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Well, when we do get snow, at least the Central Park measurement should be better... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I just remembered reading it earlier in the day and took a look. It can't hurt to notify the NWS. Hopefully, the numbers are accurate. It will be interesting to see what today's daily climate summary shows. Not fixed in the report. It has 53 occurring 7 minutes before recording 55. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off It's clearly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Phase 8 is not a cold and snowy signal for January during strong El Ninos, as has already been pointed out. To take this further, here are a few strong Nino winters where the MJO went into phase 8 in January, look at the dates, not what you want to see, we all know what these January's were like: https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/679379290035720192 Another: https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/679381495681822721 And another: https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/679381495681822721 1998, 1983, 1992 well 83 had a huge blizzard in Feb, and March 92 had a couple storms, but 98....none of those years had the freakish warmth we are seeing now, which I am hearing from scientists on the radio is a result of El Nino being enhanced by climate change. My worry is that these kinds if winters will become more common, which is what seems to be in the offing. People in the area seem to be enjoying the warm temps but I for one find this creepy and perturbing. And really, I kinda doubt we will see much wintry precip this year, because I have lived through the years you cite, and many others, and I have seen how meh winters following warmer Decembers usually work out ( the operative word here is usually, so folks I don't wanna hear again about last year ) but what we are seeing here is not the garden variety mild December, but something unprecedented and frankly, disturbing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the nino standing wave is messing with the mjo plots Tend to agree, though the IO convection is changing somewheat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Not fixed in the report. It has 53 occurring 7 minutes before recording 55. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off It's clearly wrong. I saw there were no changes. However, I haven't received a reply from the NWS either, and I usually receive a reply to my e-mails. So, we'll see what happens later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 well 83 had a huge blizzard in Feb, and March 92 had a couple storms, but 98....none of those years had the freakish warmth we are seeing now, which I am hearing from scientists on the radio is a result of El Nino being enhanced by climate change. My worry is that these kinds if winters will become more common, which is what seems to be in the offing. People in the area seem to be enjoying the warm temps but I for one find this creepy and perturbing. And really, I kinda doubt we will see much wintry precip this year, because I have lived through the years you cite, and many others, and I have seen how meh winters following warmer Decembers usually work out ( the operative word here is usually, so folks I don't wanna hear again about last year ) but what we are seeing here is not the garden variety mild December, but something unprecedented and frankly, disturbing.... ENSO background is part of it. Big contributions from the strat this year however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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