Allsnow Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 they never looked all that great to begin with. serves you right for wishcasting Opengeo getting all excited to go from +20 to +7.....should we still talk long range and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 lol, you know when it comes to you and your history of screaming , it hard to tell . We are heading back to slightly above N in early Jan . There is nothing in the Euro or GFS ensembles guidance that says otherwise. Folks need to keep in mind we don't need -10 temps to get a snow event in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Did you miss the Euro and GFS ensembles ? 5 days of plus 1c with the ridge on WC vs a ridge in the E a trough in the W and plus 15 . That`s the same pattern to you ? We will be stepping down, which is obvious since we can't stay at these ridiculous departures forever, but it's going to be a long process. I have Jan at +6 and Feb at +1. BN temps and chances of snow are unlikely to occur until the last week of Jan but moreso Feb. I would like to see the Nino gradually weaken to give us a better shot at wintry weather Feb/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 We will be stepping down, which is obvious since we can't stay at these ridiculous departures forever, but it's going to be a long process. I have Jan at +6 and Feb at +1. BN temps and chances of snow are unlikely to occur until the last week of Jan but moreso Feb. I would like to see the Nino gradually weaken to give us a better shot at wintry weather Feb/March. 1.That alone has to denote a pattern charge . You go from plus 15 to plus 2 in early Jan that`s a pattern change . I keep reading there is no change coming , the guidance says otherwise . For early Jan with a ridge on the WC and N temps . That`s a 180 from this plus 13 month with a ridge parked over your head. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Better view . That`s a better flip than the triple Lindy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 PB is on a roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks better out west, but Canada is stuffed with high heights and we maintain an Icelandic low/+NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Welp, today's the winter solstice. We're slowly headed towards the peak of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks better out west, but Canada is stuffed with high heights and we maintain an Icelandic low/+NAO. despite calls for a -NAO I personally doubt we see that. Look at all that cold water south of Greenland, that promotes a +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 they never looked all that great to begin with. serves you right for wishcastingHuge +EPO now showing up on the long range ensembles and a strong AK/Bering Sea vortex. As far as the MJO, the Nino standing wave has been there (phase 8 area) since early November, so how would MJO propagation into an already long standing Nino forcing wave force a major pattern change? Visual: https://twitter.com/tombo82685/status/679287657424363520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Welp, today's the winter solstice. We're slowly headed towards the peak of winter. Okay? Whats wrong with snow from late Jan through March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Huge +EPO now showing up on the long range ensembles and a strong AK/Bering Sea vortex. As far as the MJO, the Nino standing wave has been there (phase 8 area) since early November, so how would MJO propagation into an already long standing Nino forcing wave force a major pattern change? Visual: https://twitter.com/tombo82685/status/679287657424363520 Yep I see your point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I know some people actually like the warm weather and that is completely understandable, but some are also trolling for some sad attempt at reverse psychology on the weather (never understood that in the least bit), but its getting to the point that it just downright unbearable and really removes all desire to engage in any kind of discussion on some of the other threads. I know the "pattern change" is still in the long range, but I'm pretty sure everyone here understands that its warm, its going to get warmer, and December into the first ten days of January is completely shot. However, repeating the same things over and over again (ncforecaster style in the Patricia thread) is just not needed. At this point I don't want the pattern change just for a shot at snow and cold or whatever, but I just want normal discussions to take place again about actual meteorology. </rant_over> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Christ almighty-there's some bad analysis here. It's warm, it's cold, its negative, it's positive what is it???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Earlier, someone posted in one of the NYC threads that NYC's reported minimum temperature of 53° might be suspect. As the last three 6-hour periods have shown a minimum figure that is exactly 2° below the listed hourly figures, I've e-mailed Upton out of an abundance of caution. Between hour figures might well have come out 2° below the shown hourly readings. Personally, I'm not yet sure there is an issue, but thought I'd send the matter to NWS just to be on the safe side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Since this is the Banter thread I'm gonna try and get the bosses to go along with a Christmas themed sand castle contest at the beach for our Christmas Eve morning show provided there's no rain/breaking news. Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Since this is the Banter thread I'm gonna try and get the bosses to go along with a Christmas themed sand castle contest at the beach for our Christmas Eve morning show provided there's no rain/breaking news. Any takers? I'm grilling hot dogs and hamburgers on the grill.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's warm, it's cold, its negative, it's positive what is it???? Just the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nice smiley face on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Christ almighty-there's some bad analysis here. It's warm, it's cold, its negative, it's positive what is it???? Some people are trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 It probably will get pushed back somewhat, as every major change does. NBD in-and-of-itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nittany I THINK the CMC is missing the MJO . Here's the problem with your MJO argument. In ENSO filtered MJO events (those years where we have Jan ENSO 3.4 anomalies >1 degree above normal) both phase 8 and phase 1 are both positively correlated to above normal temps in the northeast. So, if you're arguing more of a phase 8 look to it, you're actually arguing for more warmth in the northeast. That's actually reflected pretty well in the Euro ENS today, which had a +3 to +5 anomaly painted over the northeast as a mean for the 11-15 day period. Worse yet, the phase 1 composites argue even more mild weather nationally, particularly across the northern tier. We're certainly not going to be able to sustain +30 degree warmth, but whether we're even able to get back to seasonable conditions for longer than a 1-2 day stretch at a time in early Jan is absolutely up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 If you want to know what I'm referencing, here's what MJO phase 8 (Nino background) look like at the surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Let's be honest here. The cold and snow will eventually be here for now we have to enjoy this warm weather... I personally don't like it, I don't think it's healthy and I become very annoyed by all the humidity and warmth especially this time of the year. It's supposed to be cold and snowy but lately I feel like winters don't really start until mid January. You know what does suck, starting today, daytime starts getting longer but still plenty of winter to go I just hate we don't really see an end in sight to this warmth besides a few models showing some signs of it. I'm optimistic that we'll get some surprise snowstorm in the next two weeks. Edit: this is most likely a backloaded winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Jan as a whole is def. a WC imo..state of flux, but we should at least near seasonable levels as we approach the coldest point of climo in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 If you guys truly want a pattern flip, your best bet is going to be blocking developing somewhere along the line. The problem, is that in a year like this, it's generally a better and safer assumption to assume later warming at the strat, later flip or weakening of the positive AO. The Pacific is going to have a tough time delivering the goods with minimal Arctic air to work with. Anyway, that's my contribution for the day. Take it easy folks and have a lovely holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Here's the problem with your MJO argument. In ENSO filtered MJO events (those years where we have Jan ENSO 3.4 anomalies >1 degree above normal) both phase 8 and phase 1 are both positively correlated to above normal temps in the northeast. So, if you're arguing more of a phase 8 look to it, you're actually arguing for more warmth in the northeast. That's actually reflected pretty well in the Euro ENS today, which had a +3 to +5 anomaly painted over the northeast as a mean for the 11-15 day period. Worse yet, the phase 1 composites argue even more mild weather nationally, particularly across the northern tier. We're certainly not going to be able to sustain +30 degree warmth, but whether we're even able to get back to seasonable conditions for longer than a 1-2 day stretch at a time in early Jan is absolutely up for debate. N 850 anomalies give me plus 3 to 5 @ 2M? Are your EC ensembles diff ? Phase 8 -1 are AN in Jan ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 If you want to know what I'm referencing, here's what MJO phase 8 (Nino background) look like at the surface: How does this stack up against rest of the basin . I have never seen this , so I am curious as to why all the ensembles now got to a trough in the means with this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 N 850 anomalies give me plus 3 to 5 @ 2M? Are your EC ensembles diff ? Phase 8 -1 are AN in Jan ? Yes, normal anomalies at 850 can lead to slight aboves at the surface. Especially with little in the way of appreciable snowcover (below normal snow cover, therefore more absorbed solar radiation at the surface due to bare ground having a lower albedo than snowcover). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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