UnionWeatherWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Western Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle are most likely to get crushed in the next few days. Great pattern for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Hot off the presses, the new, updated WSI forecast for January through March: http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/very-warm-northern-us-winter-expected-to-continue-cooler-stormier-southern-us Well someone is going to bust. You have forecasts like this which suggest little winter weather and then Weatherbell going cold and snowy especially from NYC south - How did WSI do last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS has some ice for Essex County north it seems on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 J -M Plus 1 ? I have been hearing that since Sept , I just can`t figure out where . Ridge in the NW- Trough in the SE . Never a cold forecast but wetter then N looks fair . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Well someone is going to bust. You have forecasts like this which suggest little winter weather and then Weatherbell going cold and snowy especially from NYC south - How did WSI do last year? J-M KNYC WB - 1C WSI +1C They both look wet in the means along the EC , but they are not far off from each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Well someone is going to bust. You have forecasts like this which suggest little winter weather and then Weatherbell going cold and snowy especially from NYC south - How did WSI do last year? WSI did a very good job: http://96.8.93.62/a4912d50-5662-49e3-9744-7396df2242db/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm It should be noted that the forecast does not, in any way, resemble the extreme warmth of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS has some ice for Essex County north it seems on the 28th. quick flip to rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 new NAM is pretty wet straight through Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Thanks, Tom. And thank you for continuing to post your thoughts as there is far too little LR analysis going on IMO. One can only harp on and on about record warmth for so long. The pattern is evolving exactly as you have been suggesting and as Cohen laid out. Each ensemble run is getting better and better and in just a couple weeks we will be in MUCH better shape. The similarities to 57-58 are uncanny. There is a long range Nino thread in this sub forum! There is really not much to discuss in the long range with regards to cold and snow....we will probably get a break from the +20 stuff, but the looks still remains mild. Orhwxman and a few others feel we get mild again before a more sustained change for the better...right now we have historic warmth up and down the east coast, that's the main story. I suggest if you don't like it, go back to the other site and post maps of the 384 hr gfs op run. I for one enjoy all the warmth stats this forum is providing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 If we're going to be warm, it might as well be record breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 new NAM is pretty wet straight through Saturday The NAM is wet, that never happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The NAM is wet, that never happens... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The NAM is wet, that never happens... TROLL LA LA LA LA... La, la...la...la *sings in Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Well someone is going to bust. You have forecasts like this which suggest little winter weather and then Weatherbell going cold and snowy especially from NYC south - How did WSI do last year? Generally better than Weatherbell on an HDD forecast basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The NAM is wet, that never happens... I hear ya, what surprised me was the length of the rains, not the amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 My word the Canadian Ens is ugly at the end. GEFS also a good bit warmer late 11-15 day as well vs. the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 My word the Canadian Ens is ugly at the end. GEFS also a good bit warmer late 11-15 day as well vs. the 0z. that's my concern-models rush it or as has been the case this season, show a turn to colder even if transient and then pull back as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 My word the Canadian Ens is ugly at the end. GEFS also a good bit warmer late 11-15 day as well vs. the 0z. Thanks for the post.. Looks like the warmth posts will continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 A definite step backwards on today's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 they never looked all that great to begin with. serves you right for wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Not a good look on the ggem ensembles and gefs. Goa low comes back after a brief absence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 they never looked all that great to begin with. serves you right for wishcasting Yes they did . No one is wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That'll do it, winter cancel, 11-12 incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yes they did . No one is wishcasting.remember when you were getting excited about a pattern change this month? don't you learn anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nittany I THINK the CMC is missing the MJO . 'The GFS and Euro are in line , the Canadian misses the resulting trough on the EC. 850 anomalies are plus 1 day 11-15 on the GFS ensembles which is no different than what the Euro has been showing Step back sighhhhhhhhhhhh .... The GFS and EURO agree the torch is over , all one has to do is look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That'll do it, winter cancel, 11-12 incoming. You were saying ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 You were saying ? I was kidding. The usual suspects are trolling, so I was being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 remember when you were getting excited about a pattern change this month? don't you learn anything?But I thought the big pattern change was coming soon. Those extremely knowledgable posters said it was.I guess in terms of departures then yes but a +4 to +5 is still a cooler version of a mild spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I was kidding. The usual suspects are trolling, so I was being sarcastic. lol, you know when it comes to you and your history of screaming , it hard to tell . We are heading back to slightly above N in early Jan . There is nothing in the Euro or GFS ensembles guidance that says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 But I thought the big pattern change was coming soon. Those extremely knowledgable posters said it was. Did you miss the Euro and GFS ensembles ? 5 days of plus 1c with the ridge on WC vs a ridge in the E a trough in the W and plus 15 . That`s the same pattern to you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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