Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The warm weather feels great. I honestly don't even know what I would do with a snowstorm at this point. I have become so accustomed to the warmth and lack of any meaningful threats that I haven't looked beyond day 7 on a model in weeks. have to say, I've enjoying doing other things besides model watch for a change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Move down south if you like the warmth Move to Canada if you love the cold. Funny thing is, it's not really cold even in Southern Canada. You need to go North of most of the big cities before you find consistently sub freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 have to say, I've enjoying doing other things besides model watch for a change.... Just wish the sun didn't go down so early. That really puts a damper on the outdoor activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just wish the sun didn't go down so early. That really puts a damper on the outdoor activities. it's odd, it's like april and may weather with a sunset about 3 hours earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Move to Canada if you love the cold. Funny thing is, it's not really cold even in Southern Canada. You need to go North of most of the big cities before you find consistently sub freezing temps. Yeah. Montreal has no snow on the ground. The average lows there are in the teens already. They had their coldest February on record this year and are all happy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well, it's quite obvious that this site is heavily snow-oriented, so while there are some warm "weenies" who might constantly disagree with snow lovers, I believe that there should be some balance in this forum. Though some more logical, reasonable debates between snow and warm lovers would definitely be appreciated what with all the constant jabs and insults being thrown back and forth between the two groups of weather lovers. And even so, I'm sure that many of these "fights" between the snow and warm "weenies" are all in good humor, or at worst just some minor arguments between a couple of weather lovers who might not be getting exactly what they want in terms of weather, such as in a pattern like we're in now, and shouldn't be taken too seriously in my opinion. Good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I give you credit for consistency and do hope your forecasted change works out. It's nice to see ensembles stay the course but I worry it'll be more transient than a pattern change. Seeing the PNA switch from - to + would be a great sign as well. Again I don't think a -AO/NAO will play much of a role this winter because of the strong Nino, but that doesn't mean we can't score if we see cooperation out west as seen past couple of winters. But you never worry about warm forecasts. Always confident about those. Why is that? And when the pattern finally broke last January and NYC had a well above average snow season, against 98 to 2 odds...where were you? That's right...you disappeared from the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 EPS fyi (think this is allowed). Of note is the improvement, not that we're saying it is a HECS pattern. And yes, it is still AN temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 have to say, I've enjoying doing other things besides model watch for a change.... Same. Makes it comfortable to work in the garage. If there's no snow, cold is worthless like the others were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Week 3 and 4 500 MB Courtesy of IAN in the M/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Week 3 and 4 500 MB Courtesy of IAN in the M/A What is the model and source of the output? CFS weeklies are still at least +3 for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That's the Euro Weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Weeklies are not a blow torch after week 1 and the start of week two...but pretty meh week 3 and 4.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Hmm. It's a long shot but lemme guess. He's going warm? Still deny the existence of sudden stratospheric warming events? You aren't too good at reading comprehension are you? I never, ever said there was no such thing as a SSW, that is just plain stupid, you suggested that one was actually occurring at the time, which it clearly wasn't. Must have been you telling us about the wet SSW dream you had overnight where you woke up and had to change your boxers after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Weeklies are not a blow torch after week 1 and the start of week two...but pretty meh week 3 and 4.... They arent bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Whats normal 0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Don had a really good post about January in the medium range thread on the main page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Judah Cohen is predicted the AO to crash in the 2nd half of January with a huge attack on the PV mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Judah Cohen is predicted the AO to crash in the 2nd half of January with a huge attack on the PV mid January. Now we just wait and see. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Judah Cohen is predicted the AO to crash in the 2nd half of January with a huge attack on the PV mid January. Color me shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Judah Cohen is predicted the AO to crash in the 2nd half of January with a huge attack on the PV mid January. Because this worked out so brilliantly last year. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Love the hostility toward the man actually attempting to help improve LR forecasting, and the complete ignorance of the science, which leads to resentment. The differences between last Winter and this Winter are huge. Much easier to forecast SSWEs this Winter. In fact, they are already happening...the first two just as his model predicted. Another is predicted for the first week of Jan and another stronger one the second week of Jan, which is forecast to finally do the deed on the PV. Everything is progressing as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Love the hostility toward the man actually attempting to help improve LR forecasting, and the complete ignorance of the science, which leads to resentment. The differences between last Winter and this Winter are huge. Much easier to forecast SSWEs this Winter. In fact, they are already happening...the first two just as his model predicted. Another is predicted for the first week of Jan and another stronger one the second week of Jan, which is forecast to finally do the deed on the PV. Everything is progressing as expected. Remember "The little boy who cried wolf" Newsflash: Nobody cared and his sheep died. You're sort of in that category now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Site slow for anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Site slow for anyone else? Yep, off and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Warmest Fall season on record here since 1977...53.2 degrees beats 52.7 in 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Because this worked out so brilliantly last year. I'll believe it when I see it. Last year has nothing to do with this year. I think it may wait until Feb, though...the PAC will kick in for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Warmest Fall season on record here since 1977...53.2 degrees beats 52.7 in 2001. What happened that winter? Anything good? ; 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Warmest Fall season on record here since 1977...53.2 degrees beats 52.7 in 2001. May through December will beat by a wide margin just like May through November did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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