forkyfork Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Euro has the mjo moving along into 7 and 8. Game on. This month is shot. https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/679035157349851136 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Scandinavian ridge should help lower NAO and also dislodge the vortex from Baffin Island. Also, ensembles are all showing a +PNA with heights spiking in western Canada. That coincides with the end of the Indian Ocean forcing and a return to a more typical Nino look with forcing over the dateline. It's not an arctic pattern, but it should give us the chance for wintry precip and much more seasonable temps following the NYE cutter. Exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 @ 2M start at 240 - you will arrive at plus 1 to 2 . DAY 11 -15 I saw that. It still keeps most of the metro above freezing on most mornings. You also realize this map is with C anomaly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Definitely some optimism in the NE sub forum. From qualify posters too. Granted it's much easier to get it to snow in NE during normal temps then it is down here but the mega torch looks to take a break. For me personally, if it's not going to snow then torch torch torch The literal only posters putting any thought into the LR in yore subforum are also optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I saw that. It still keeps most of the metro above freezing on most mornings. It is a step down pattern change. Coming out of a +34 December, I'd think people here would be chomping at the bit about a step down to 0 to +5 departure in early January. Guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 New Long range outlook from a meteorologist with over 40 years experience in long range forecasting: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/record-shattering-warmth-and-very-stormyHmm. It's a long shot but lemme guess. He's going warm?Still deny the existence of sudden stratospheric warming events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Hmm. It's a long shot but lemme guess. He's going warm? Still deny the existence of sudden stratospheric warming events? People are ignoring that for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/679035157349851136 And your point is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I saw that. It still keeps most of the metro above freezing on most mornings. You also realize this map is with C anomaly? A week of plus 1c at 2m in early Jan with that 500 is night and day from this EC stagnant ridge plus 12 month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 People are ignoring that for some reason. Well, it's perfectly legit to question the impact of SSWEs. Denying their existence altogether is silly. And the fact is, when this subforum's most frequent posters are snoski and snowman19, both of whom don't have any idea what they are talking about, with MVP posters like PB GFI getting bashed for providing accurate analysis...I think that's a sign of a problem. Then there's the trolling I am getting as well, but I deserve that so bygones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 We keep posting day 11 to 15 looks slightly above N .( +1 or 2 ) in early Jan that is not warm . NO ONE says COLD . Much closer to Normal . We will step down for the week . This forecasted "cold" shot is nothing new or unexpected. A dip in the AO/NAO, etc..., even in a pattern that we're in now, is completely normal, and has happened plenty of times since May 2015 (around the beginning of our current pattern). It doesn't mean that the teleconnections will stay favorable for cold and snow all throughout Jan and Feb. Now, regarding the PV getting disturbed in mid Jan: signs of the PV getting disturbed, doesn't mean it will be completely perturbed from where it is now. It could just become "shaken" a bit, and immediately return to the state it's been in for many months now. Not saying your predictions won't happen; just that I wouldn't be too cocky in a pattern that has broken multiple century-long records in half a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This forecasted "cold" shot is nothing new or unexpected. A dip in the AO/NAO, etc..., even in a pattern that we're in now, is completely normal, and has happened plenty of times since May 2015 (around the beginning of our current pattern). It doesn't mean that the teleconnections will stay favorable for cold and snow all throughout Jan and Feb. Now, regarding the PV getting disturbed in mid Jan: signs of the PV getting disturbed, doesn't mean it will be completely perturbed from where it is now. It could just become "shaken" a bit, and immediately return to the state it's been in for many months now. Not saying your predictions won't happen; just that I wouldn't be too cocky in a pattern that has broken multiple century-long records in half a year. I think this is mostly a reasonable post, with the exception of the first paragraph. The first week of January isn't a cold shot and no one is stating otherwise. The most impactful part of any SSWE-driven pattern change wouldn't occur for another several weeks, and to your point, it could not be enough...or it could split the PV or displace it to the wrong side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well, it's perfectly legit to question the impact of SSWEs. Denying their existence altogether is silly. And the fact is, when this subforum's most frequent posters are snoski and snowman, with MVP posters like PB GFI getting bashed for providing accurate analysis...I think that's a sign of a problem. Then there's the trolling I am getting as well, but I deserve that so bygones. Snowman is 5 posted so he's not the "most frequent poster". I disagree with him often on lots of topics but he's right about the +EPO. If you have a raging positive EPO during a super nino, it will be very hard for areas along i95 to stay cold. I really hope we end up with a sustained -EPO bc without one, many will be disappointed. I honestly see both sides of the argument here. I do see a step process beginning on many of the models/ensembles but it's not a given yet. I really hope the snow weenies are correct and not the warm weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This forecasted "cold" shot is nothing new or unexpected. A dip in the AO/NAO, etc..., even in a pattern that we're in now, is completely normal, and has happened plenty of times since May 2015 (around the beginning of our current pattern). It doesn't mean that the teleconnections will stay favorable for cold and snow all throughout Jan and Feb. Now, regarding the PV getting disturbed in mid Jan: signs of the PV getting disturbed, doesn't mean it will be completely perturbed from where it is now. It could just become "shaken" a bit, and immediately return to the state it's been in for many months now. Not saying your predictions won't happen; just that I wouldn't be too cocky in a pattern that has broken multiple century-long records in half a year. 2 weeks ago the European weeklies looked colder in week 4 , many took it apart and brought up how the Euro blew a week 4 forecast from back in November . They were not wrong , it did so many laughed it off This turn to N was not only a week quicker than the Euro weeklies forecast last week there were many posters who are on board with NO PATTERN /change to " winter " until Feb . Yesterday I read this was transient , however the guidance , not me sticks the ridge in the WC for 5 days and not a day or 2 . I always opined that the pattern would change between the 10 and 15th so this is even fast for me. This was not expected and was being pushed back as late at this morning here . N to plus 2 in early Jan doesn`t light peoples hair on fire , but its a step down and we will take it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Snowman is 5 posted so he's not the "most frequent poster". I disagree with him often on lots of topics but he's right about the +EPO. If you have a raging positive EPO during a super nino, it will be very hard for areas along i95 to stay cold. I really hope we end up with a sustained -EPO bc without one, many will be disappointed. I honestly see both sides of the argument here. I do see a step process beginning on many of the models/ensembles but it's not a given yet. I really hope the snow weenies are correct and not the warm weenies. Great post and I do not disagree really with any of it. I wouldn't necessarily claim that we are going to be arctic in February and March, but as you know, it's quite possible that we see a -AO beginning later next month, which would certainly promote more frequent which, if we can also get the -NAO going as a result of a PV split/displacement, could be locked in for longer periods. With the STJ becoming more and more active, the opportunities could be there for big snowfalls, even with overall near normal to slightly above normal departures. It's all about what happens when the cold arrives. Snow in our area is often times about threading the needle. And what reason would one have NOT to be optimistic right now. It's not like I am definitively saying we will see 100" this Winter and basing it on nothing. I and others have been trumpeting changes for the past few weeks that are actually beginning to happen now. This is not a weenie situation no matter how others try to paint it as so. And I love the acknowledgement of what I and others have been saying now that the NE forum is saying it. LOL. C'mon people. I do not respect people who call for warmth, even if they are right. Fact is, snow is pretty rare and it doesn't snow way more than it does snow. It's an easy game to come in and say that we're going to be warm and this is what relatively inexperienced folks like snoski and snowman19 are doing and have done, bar none, every Winter they have posted here. And NO ONE predicted it would be this warm. THAT might have impressed me, but no one called for it. Most everyone just said December would be warm, even very warm and this was an easy forecast based on the strength of the El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well, it's perfectly legit to question the impact of SSWEs. Denying their existence altogether is silly. And the fact is, when this subforum's most frequent posters are snoski and snowman19, both of whom don't have any idea what they are talking about, with MVP posters like PB GFI getting bashed for providing accurate analysis...I think that's a sign of a problem. Then there's the trolling I am getting as well, but I deserve that so bygones. So anyone who disagrees with the snow weenies is just wrong correct. Anyone remotely skeptical, which by the way everyone has a right to be given we've been stuck in the same pattern since May, is just clueless and is automatically seen as a warm weather weenie, which is not true because I love snow. I also have a pattern change by February, so you can't say it's pure negativity either. And what bashing are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 So anyone who disagrees with the snow weenies is just wrong correct. Anyone remotely skeptical is just clueless and is automatically seen as a warm weather weenie, which is not true by the way because I love snow. I also have a pattern change by February, so you can't say it's pure negativity either. And what bashing are you talking about? No. Just when you disagree with the snow weenies, are you in not correct, because that it all you do. There are plenty of others here who can reasonably debate the subject with facts of their own. I basically laid out the case for a good second half in a long post this morning. Others have posted reasonable counterpoints since then. You have not. Heckfire, your counterpart snowman19 claimed SSWE do not exist at all. The two of you are just silly about the warmth and negativity. It also doesn't help that a leader and met in this sub forum doesn't take it or this place seriously either and spend 99.8% of his time trolling people who like snow. But, I'll let the Amwx staff work that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 weeks ago the European weeklies looked colder in week 4 , many took it apart and brought up how the Euro blew a week 4 forecast from back in November . They were not wrong , it did so many laughed it off This turn to N was not only a week quicker than the Euro weeklies forecast last week there were many posters who are on board with NO PATTERN /change to " winter " until Feb . Yesterday I read this was transient , however the guidance , not me sticks the ridge in the WC for 5 days and not a day or 2 . I always opined that the pattern would change between the 10 and 15th so this is even fast for me. This was not expected and was being pushed back as late at this morning here . N to plus 2 in early Jan doesn`t light peoples hair on fire , but its a step down and we will take it . I meant "not unexpected" in terms of the pattern we're in, not what the models showed. And I wouldn't trust the models yet; what may seem like a clear, definite sign of a change in the pattern can slowly, over time, be downgraded more and more until any effect it has lasts for no more than a few days to a week. Or, it could also seem like it is causing a major change, but might not be enough to do much to anything, because it just wouldn't be enough to disturb the pattern to a sufficient degree in order to cause a significant pattern change. All that I said right now may seem like I'm grabbing at straws, but no one (that I know of) predicted such insanely intense warmth this month, so forecasting little to no change to the pattern we're in, is, in my opinion, the most logical thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Today my family and I buried my dad. It was so heart wrenching. I'm hoping and praying that the upcoming pattern change isn't transient and brings about a blizzard. My dad loved when it snowed. Tbh i would sacrifice a sh!tty winter for one monster of a storm. I'm so sorry. Sending good wishes and snowy thoughts your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 No. Just when you disagree with the snow weenies, are you in not correct, because that it all you do. There are plenty of others here who can reasonably debate the subject with facts of their own. I basically laid out the case for a good second half in a long post this morning. Others have posted reasonable counterpoints since then. You have not. Heckfire, your counterpart snowman19 claimed SSWE do not exist at all. The two of you are just silly about the warmth and negativity. It also doesn't help that a leader and met in this sub forum doesn't take it or this place seriously either. But, I'll let the Amwx staff work that out. Because this is a weather forum and guess what it's not that serious. How is anybody being silly about warmth when the warmth has been winning since May? So I guess we should just ignore the fact that we've been shattering records left and right for months now in favor of cold and snow. And exactly how many winters turned out good after a record warm and snowless December in the face of one of the strongest, if not the strongest Ninos on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 No. Just when you disagree with the snow weenies, are you in not correct, because that it all you do. There are plenty of others here who can reasonably debate the subject with facts of their own. I basically laid out the case for a good second half in a long post this morning. Others have posted reasonable counterpoints since then. You have not. Heckfire, your counterpart snowman19 claimed SSWE do not exist at all. The two of you are just silly about the warmth and negativity. It also doesn't help that a leader and met in this sub forum doesn't take it or this place seriously either and spend 99.8% of his time trolling people who like snow. But, I'll let the Amwx staff work that out. Well, it's quite obvious that this site is heavily snow-oriented, so while there are some warm "weenies" who might constantly disagree with snow lovers, I believe that there should be some balance in this forum. Though some more logical, reasonable debates between snow and warm lovers would definitely be appreciated what with all the constant jabs and insults being thrown back and forth between the two groups of weather lovers. And even so, I'm sure that many of these "fights" between the snow and warm "weenies" are all in good humor, or at worst just some minor arguments between a couple of weather lovers who might not be getting exactly what they want in terms of weather, such as in a pattern like we're in now, and shouldn't be taken too seriously in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Today my family and I buried my dad. It was so heart wrenching. I'm hoping and praying that the upcoming pattern change isn't transient and brings about a blizzard. My dad loved when it snowed. Tbh i would sacrifice a sh!tty winter for one monster of a storm. I can't imagine what you're going through. I'm so so sorry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 A brief change in the H5 pattern does not mean a pattern change...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 +2 in January would feel frigid after this inferno. You'd be talking highs around 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The warm weather feels great. I honestly don't even know what I would do with a snowstorm at this point. I have become so accustomed to the warmth and lack of any meaningful threats that I haven't looked beyond day 7 on a model in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Another good run of the European ensembles. Yawn at some of the people in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 A brief change in the H5 pattern does not mean a pattern change...... Who said anything about a brief change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The warm weather feels great. I honestly don't even know what I would do with a snowstorm at this point. I have become so accustomed to the warmth and lack of any meaningful threats that I haven't looked beyond day 7 on a model in weeks. Move down south if you like the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Move down south if you like the warmth He doesn't need to with temps in at least the upper 60s on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Another good run of the European ensembles. Yawn at some of the people in here. I give you credit for consistency and do hope your forecasted change works out. It's nice to see ensembles stay the course but I worry it'll be more transient than a pattern change. Seeing the PNA switch from - to + would be a great sign as well. Again I don't think a -AO/NAO will play much of a role this winter because of the strong Nino, but that doesn't mean we can't score if we see cooperation out west as seen past couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.