Superstorm93 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The GEFS look way too fast with the pattern evolution. The Scandinavian Ridge is more than likely too beefed up (even on the mean it's insane) and is causing too much heat transfer into the stratosphere which eventually allows a ridge to set up over western Canada/west coast. While there probably will be a gradual pattern change over the next few weeks, there's no way it's going to flip that quickly when we've been locked in this state for months. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The GEFS look way too fast with the pattern evolution. The Scandinavian Ridge is more than likely too beefed up (even on the mean it's insane) and is causing too much heat transfer into the stratosphere which eventually allows a ridge to set up over western Canada/west coast. While there probably will be a gradual pattern change over the next few weeks, there's no way it's going to flip that quickly when we've been locked in this state for months. Sent from my SM-G925V The euro ensembles show the same thing though. I think its rushing it a bit but it has the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The GEFS look way too fast with the pattern evolution. The Scandinavian Ridge is more than likely too beefed up (even on the mean it's insane) and is causing too much heat transfer into the stratosphere which eventually allows a ridge to set up over western Canada/west coast. While there probably will be a gradual pattern change over the next few weeks, there's no way it's going to flip that quickly when we've been locked in this state for months. Sent from my SM-G925V Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's going to be January soon. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to forecast colder weather and possible snow in January. Brilliant post and wonderful analysis to add to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 12Z gefs still splits the PV. People need to be patient. Most of the split ends up over Siberia. If that happens, it will be challenging to reload before March. There is a good chance of a shutout winter, it's certainly not a low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 12Z gefs still splits the PV. People need to be patient. At 50hpa. Will take another couple of weeks to propagate that up to the upper strat. Then there is the question of which side of the globe any split or displacement effects and where any potential blocking sets up. Could be the other side, though you hope the Siberian high shunts it over this way. But we'll get to that later. Posters in this thread still don't think SSWEs are a real event that impact our weather. Still others rightfully question the scope and nature of that impact. The rest of those in here really don't have a clue, nor do they want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Most of the split ends up over Siberia. If that happens, it will be challenging to reload before March. There is a good chance of a shutout winter, it's certainly not a low probability. you're not allowed to say this. opengeo and peanut butter girlfriend have guaranteed a cold and snowy pattern after this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 ooga booga https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/678993989593202688 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I heard 4dvar from USAwx just cancelled winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I heard 4dvar from USAwx just cancelled winter He is not serious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 you're not allowed to say this. opengeo and peanut butter girlfriend have guaranteed a cold and snowy pattern after this month Okay lets hear your thoughts. Go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 you're not allowed to say this. opengeo and peanut butter girlfriend have guaranteed a cold and snowy pattern after this month Not a low probability of a snowless winter? This is what youre agreeing to. What are the probs? 25%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I heard 4dvar from USAwx just cancelled winter until JB jumps ship, I'm staying on board the Titantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Not a low probability of a snowless winter? This is what youre agreeing to. What are the probs? 25%?relative to normal it's high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 relative to normal it's high Whats normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 in my dream world it stays like this, little to no snow and no sub freezing temps for weeks at time. It wont happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Scandinavian ridge should help lower NAO and also dislodge the vortex from Baffin Island. Also, ensembles are all showing a +PNA with heights spiking in western Canada. That coincides with the end of the Indian Ocean forcing and a return to a more typical Nino look with forcing over the dateline. It's not an arctic pattern, but it should give us the chance for wintry precip and much more seasonable temps following the NYE cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 you're not allowed to say this. opengeo and peanut butter girlfriend have guaranteed a cold and snowy pattern after this month Little Mike most here know that I am plus 3 for Jan and plus 1 J-M . Snoski will confirm . Don`t muddy up Peanut Butters forecast . You got AN snow right. You give me carpal tunnel having to respond so often to this stupidity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 in my dream world it stays like this, little to no snow and no sub freezing temps for weeks at time. It wont happen. You would be surprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 You would be surprised... Yeah, I totally forgot how cold the last 2 years were because so far this season has been so warm. It is like it never happened. Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Whats normal low 70's from now till February is the highest temps on record...2013, 1984, 2007 maybe more years reached those heights...it can be mid 70's and not be that far off the highest max's...so if it's going to be extremely warm for this time of year it normally will get into the upper 60's and low 70's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Definitely some optimism in the NE sub forum. From qualify posters too. Granted it's much easier to get it to snow in NE during normal temps then it is down here but the mega torch looks to take a break. For me personally, if it's not going to snow then torch torch torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Brilliant post and wonderful analysis to add to the discussion. This is the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 At least the pattern moving forward looks quite active rain wise. The Euro has 2-3" of rain areawide over the next 7+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Start at 240 , Step 1 . Stationary ridge on the WC http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500a_sd&runtime=2015122112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=200 2M - The torch gone . Looks like N is on the way . http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015122112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 New Long range outlook from a meteorologist with over 40 years experience in long range forecasting: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/record-shattering-warmth-and-very-stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Start at 240 , Step 1 . Stationary ridge on the WC http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500a_sd&runtime=2015122112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=200 2M - The torch gone . Looks like N is on the way . http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015122112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=200 I don't know if we're looking at the same panels. I still see mostly a little above average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Today my family and I buried my dad. It was so heart wrenching. I'm hoping and praying that the upcoming pattern change isn't transient and brings about a blizzard. My dad loved when it snowed. Tbh i would sacrifice a sh!tty winter for one monster of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I don't know if we're looking at the same panels. I still see mostly a little above average temps. @ 2M start at 240 - you will arrive at plus 1 to 2 . DAY 11 -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 We keep posting day 11 to 15 looks slightly above N .( +1 or 2 ) in early Jan that is not warm . NO ONE says COLD . Much closer to Normal . We will step down for the week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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