CIK62 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Some facts Avg. Temp. for Winter(DJF) (37.5 + 32.6 + 35.3 ) = (105.4)/3 = 35.1degs. Warmest winter ever is (41.5 - 35.1) = + 6.4 degs. 10th. place is (41.5 - 37.9) = +2.8 degs. So if we use +13 for Dec. (likely) and the remainder of winter is exactly normal (unknown really) we will have: (50.5 + 32.6 +35.3) = (118.4/3) = 39.5 degs., and we are in the top ten already. Target is (41.5x3) = 124.5. (124.5-118.4) = +6.1degs. Should Jan. and Feb. have a net +6.1 average (possible by the CFS w/o a favorable SSWE---is the caveat), this will be the warmest winter in history(ties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1997-98 had hardly any cold air at all...the coldest 30 day period was only 37.3...Highest on record...2011-12 is second with 37.0...2001-02 managed a 30 day period averaging 35.4...Last year we had one averaging 23.9...if this year doesn't get cold in the latter part of the winter another warm record for winter could fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'm really starting to enjoy this warmer weather. I wouldn't mind a virtually snowless Winter as long as it stays well above average in temps. I miss the snow more when it's cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'm really starting to enjoy this warmer weather. I wouldn't mind a virtually snowless Winter as long as it stays well above average in temps. I miss the snow more when it's cold and dry. I agree-if there's no snow it might as well be 65. It's not like there's any snowpack to protect anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This winter is shaping up to be much more like 57-58 than 97-98. Don't allow yourselves to be swayed by the warm posters here who provide zero analysis on the long term pattern and harp on and on and on about how warm it is. Sure, it's nice out there and records are being broken. That's super interesting isn't it! Blargh, whatever. 2 weeks from now, the warmth will be forgotten and we will be tracking winter storm chances again. Though, the best chances for snow will begin in late Jan. At this point, the warm (and clueless) posters will begin dismissing any snow we do get and focusing more on how below normal we are for snowfall. Once we go above normal for snow, they will cry that this is a "one storm winter" etc. Whatever straws they can grasp at to be negative. Get ready everyone else. Winter will return before you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Surprised there hasn't been as much meltdowns? Mod's giving warnings perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Surprised there hasn't been as much meltdowns? Mod's giving warnings perhaps? Too early to meltdown and no one predicted a cold/snowy December. If you had a lot of forecasts that were wall to wall cold, it would be different for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This winter is shaping up to be much more like 57-58 than 97-98. Don't allow yourselves to be swayed by the warm posters here who provide zero analysis on the long term pattern and harp on and on and on about how warm it is. Sure, it's nice out there and records are being broken. That's super interesting isn't it! Blargh, whatever. 2 weeks from now, the warmth will be forgotten and we will be tracking winter storm chances again. Though, the best chances for snow will begin in late Jan. At this point, the warm (and clueless) posters will begin dismissing any snow we do get and focusing more on how below normal we are for snowfall. Once we go above normal for snow, they will cry that this is a "one storm winter" etc. Whatever straws they can grasp at to be negative. Get ready everyone else. Winter will return before you know it. TWC just said warm through most of January with no pattern change in sight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Surprised there hasn't been as much meltdowns? Mod's giving warnings perhaps? Meltdowns for what? This pattern is going as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That was some great analysis. I feel much better now knowing winter is only a few short weeks away. I find us smashing monthly records by a never before seen margin to be interesting but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 TWC just said warm through most of January with no pattern change in sight lol You watch TWC? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 TWC just said warm through most of January with no pattern change in sight lol Lol they will be so wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That was some great analysis. I feel much better now knowing winter is only a few short weeks away.It's been years and I've never seen you be optimistic. Even when proven wrong last year repeatedly, you wouldn't acknowledge it. What gives man? Can't even tell if you're serious here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yawn...all I see is a torch and a trasient pna ridge in the west.... Wolf crying wolf again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I haven't seen many posts that would indicate trolling on the warm weather side. Instead people are just discussing the above average pattern and are skeptical towards change. It always happens whenever we see a prolonged stretch of a specific type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yawn...all I see is a torch and a trasient pna ridge in the west.... Wolf crying wolf again More important, there is +EPO, a staple of strong El Niño. We are not getting a sustained -EPO for weeks and weeks on end like the last 3 winters with a super Nino in place, not happening. The truth of it is this, and if people don't want to believe me ask any pro met you want. Even if the -AO and -NAO come, you had better hope the EPO is not raging positive at the time because if it is, the Atlantic and arctic blocking get steamrolled and overwhelmed and you are flooded with Pacific maritime air and the -AO and -NAO mean squat. You need the EPO to be at least neutral at the same time, if it's raging positive, game over no matter what the AO and NAO are doing. That is not opinion or conjecture, it's fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yawn...all I see is a torch and a trasient pna ridge in the west.... Wolf crying wolf again I guess PB and alot of mets are also wrong. Keep on model hugging instead of looking at signs of a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's been years and I've never seen you be optimistic. Even when proven wrong last year repeatedly, you wouldn't acknowledge it. What gives man? Can't even tell if you're serious here. It's tough to argue against your and PB's track record and thorough analysis. It's nice to read put together thoughts for clueless posters like myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Euro has the mjo moving along into 7 and 8. Game on. This month is shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's tough to argue against your and PB's track record and thorough analysis. It's nice to read put together thoughts for clueless posters like myself. They are both great posters who provide alot of knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I guess PB and alot of mets are also wrong. Keep on model hugging instead of looking at signs of a pattern change. It's going to be January soon. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to forecast colder weather and possible snow in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 You also have to take into account that the models have been showing a flip to a stormier pattern since July and that has yet to come to fruition. This pattern has been locked in for many months. Even if some colder air works in, there is no guarantee it will bring storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I guess PB and alot of mets are also wrong. Keep on model hugging instead of looking at signs of a pattern change. Well... a lot of the mets here aren't exactly the least weenie-ish around here, and they might be looking for things that aren't quite what they seem, especially during a warm, dry pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's going to be January soon. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to forecast colder weather and possible snow in January. Okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's going to be January soon. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to forecast colder weather and possible snow in January. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well... a lot of the mets here aren't exactly the least weenie-ish around here, and they might be looking for things that aren't quite what they seem, especially during a warm, dry pattern like this. What mets you talking about? I cant believe people think this pattern is going to last all winter when the models and other factors are pointing to a change in january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I hate my life when we're in winter and the models show no sign of snow! It pisses me off! To top it off forky has been ignoring me for my $50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 There's always the possibility that the "change" keeps getting pushed back, like it's been doing. Idk, I'm not sold on anything more than two weeks away, this winter is still up in the air, it could go either way, or ride the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What mets you talking about? I cant believe people think this pattern is going to last all winter when the models and other factors are pointing to a change in january. Look, I'd love for it to snow just like anyone else on here, but I can't help but feel a slight, (but noticeable) bias from the mets and other knowledgeable posters.They're smart, but at the same time seem to be using their knowledge purely for looking for any sign of cold/snow, and (from what it looks like to me) try their best to dismiss and/or downplay anything shown on the models that might mean the contrary. No offense intended to anyone, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 12Z gefs still splits the PV. People need to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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