Rittenhouse Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Lol weenies are gonna eat this up What? 0.8 inches in Central Park? 1-2 inches in the northern suburbs. The inland totals are overdone, but this is the kind of snowstorm I would expect this January without a raging NAO- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 What? 0.8 inches in Central Park? 1-2 inches in the northern suburbs. The inland totals are overdone, but this is the kind of snowstorm I would expect this January without a raging NAO- Give them 0.01 inches on the 384hr GFS and they'll start jumping up and down from joy. JK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 What? 0.8 inches in Central Park? 1-2 inches in the northern suburbs. The inland totals are overdone, but this is the kind of snowstorm I would expect this January without a raging NAO- Or not at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 i think you missed the word "no"wheres my money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I don't get it. Everything PB is saying is true. It is a grammatical misinterpretation which PB tried to explain. He thought the poster meant No,as in an answer when I think the poster meant No as in Lack of.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 What? 0.8 inches in Central Park? 1-2 inches in the northern suburbs. The inland totals are overdone, but this is the kind of snowstorm I would expect this January without a raging NAO- Yeah this would be a non event for most of us, or so small to be a nuisance and nothing more. But it would be good for higher elevations and further north. But then they are hardier folks I assume, than us city slickers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It is a grammatical misinterpretation which PB tried to explain. He thought the poster meant No,as in an answer when I think the poster meant No as in Lack of....Agreed. It reminded me of a story I once heard about a sign along a river that stated:DANGEROUS NO SWIMMING ALLOWED A cop saw a guy summing there and he yelled out to the guy "Why are you swimming here, it's dangerous!" and the guy replied "No it's not". The cop then asked "Didn't you read the sign?" And the guy replied yea, it said "Dangerous? No. Swimming allowed" so I figured it was safe to swim here." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I said well get our first flakes between December 17-18 we ended up getting December 19th. I said well get our first inch of snow December 29-30 period 4 inches to be exact, it'll be nice if that comes true too! New Year's Eve blizzard anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I said well get our first flakes between December 17-18 we ended up getting December 19th. I said well get our first inch of snow December 29-30 period 4 inches to be exact, it'll be nice if that comes true too! New Year's Eve blizzard anyone? You should do this professionally;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I said well get our first flakes between December 17-18 we ended up getting December 19th. I said well get our first inch of snow December 29-30 period 4 inches to be exact, it'll be nice if that comes true too! New Year's Eve blizzard anyone? I didn't see any flakes where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I didn't see any flakes where do you live? Plenty did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I didn't see any flakes where do you live? I literally saw a few flakes. I thought I was hallucinating at first. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I stil havent seen flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 More flakes in this thread than in the air so far this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Agreed. It reminded me of a story I once heard about a sign along a river that stated: DANGEROUS NO SWIMMING ALLOWED A cop saw a guy summing there and he yelled out to the guy "Why are you swimming here, it's dangerous!" and the guy replied "No it's not". The cop then asked "Didn't you read the sign?" And the guy replied yea, it said "Dangerous? No. Swimming allowed" so I figured it was safe to swim here." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I've seen flakes twice, back in October on a sunny 50 degree day, and yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 More flakes in this thread than in the air so far this year! This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I've seen flakes twice, back in October on a sunny 50 degree day, and yesterday. The October event was one of the warmest snow flurry events I've ever seen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Havent seen any flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Accuweather long range for Jan. shows only 6-10 days at 32 or less and only 2 stay below 32 all day. Low for month about 24degs. Jan. is in worse condition than our economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The other day i sat with two people at a lunch meeting a was who are arguing about the warmth and the snow that may come in late January, one side said Long Island will have a warmer trend and little if any actual snow this winter and the other said we would have heavy snows late January in to march, the strange part was they each had very strong sounding evidence that it seemed they we each right. Im so confused for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The other day i sat with two people at a lunch meeting a was who are arguing about the warmth and the snow that may come in late January, one side said Long Island will have a warmer trend and little if any actual snow this winter and the other said we would have heavy snows late January in to march, the strange part was they each had very strong sounding evidence that it seemed they we each right. Im so confused this for this winter. Nobody knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well 0z gfs cancels the storm party for us at least pretty quickly and torches us for the remainder of December (how fitting). 70s still look good for Xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well 0z gfs cancels the storm party for us at least pretty quickly and torches us for the remainder of December (how fitting). 70s still look good for Xmas eve. Already said this a million times in this thread. The pattern starts to look better right after the New Year. Nothing new in that regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Already said this a million times in this thread. The pattern starts to look better right after the New Year. Nothing new in that regards. Surely you know by now that it's pointless. There will always be something to complain about. Cik will be along shortly to post the February CFS which is back to showing +10 departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well 0z gfs cancels the storm party for us at least pretty quickly and torches us for the remainder of December (how fitting). 70s still look good for Xmas eve. The models giveth and the models taketh. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 If you take the time to read and digest some of the good information out there about this pattern progression, you will see good news all around with respect to the second half. The strat is behaving very similar to 57-58, with an all out assault occurring currently and modeled to continue for the foreseeable future. Both the GFS and Euro have forecasted splits in the lower strat in the 7-10 day range with a stout Scandinavian ridge now showing on all ensemble guidance, pointing to increased warming attacks on the PV. At this point, it's a matter of when, not if, the PV displaces or splits. Just need some of these changes to propagate to the upper strat. Way LR ensemble guidance (d10-d15) has now removed the ridge in the east and replaced it with a raging PNA. That Scandinavian ridge would also act as a block. From where I sit, things look good to very good from mid January through mid March. Best guess as of now would be: January +3; 6-10" (well above first half, a bit below second half) February -2; 14-18" March -3; 4-8" Some maps: Last night's Euro Strat d10 forecasts for 10 and 50hpa respectively. The GFS from a couple of days ago showing a PV split at 50hpa The Euro forecasting a split in the lower strat. Here is the modeled d10 Scandinavian block from last night's GEFS and EPS. This will help promote increased strat warming, which in fact, you can see in the strat images above. Borrowing from my good friend Superstorm93...some 57-58 images, showing a strong cold PV just as we have this year, being perturbed in much the same way, around the same time. And eventually splitsville. December, January, then February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Wow, nice writeup Wolf. It's good that every model is starting to agree on a scandinavian ridge to set up shop, pumping up the ridge in the west. Patience is the key. The pattern looks to get a lot better come next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Day 1-5 morphs into this by day 10-15 . Agrees with the Euro at 500 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 AO NAO PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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