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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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What? 0.8 inches in Central Park? 1-2 inches in the northern suburbs. The inland totals are overdone, but this is the kind of snowstorm I would expect this January without a raging NAO-

Give them 0.01 inches on the 384hr GFS and they'll start jumping up and down from joy. JK.

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What? 0.8 inches in Central Park? 1-2 inches in the northern suburbs. The inland totals are overdone, but this is the kind of snowstorm I would expect this January without a raging NAO-

Yeah this would be a non event for most of us, or so small to be a nuisance and nothing more. But it would be good for higher elevations and further north. But then they are hardier folks I assume, than us city slickers....

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It is a grammatical misinterpretation which PB tried to explain. He thought the poster meant No,as in an answer when I think the poster meant No as in Lack of....

Agreed. It reminded me of a story I once heard about a sign along a river that stated:

DANGEROUS NO

SWIMMING ALLOWED

A cop saw a guy summing there and he yelled out to the guy "Why are you swimming here, it's dangerous!" and the guy replied "No it's not". The cop then asked "Didn't you read the sign?" And the guy replied yea, it said "Dangerous? No. Swimming allowed" so I figured it was safe to swim here."

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Agreed. It reminded me of a story I once heard about a sign along a river that stated:

DANGEROUS NO

SWIMMING ALLOWED

A cop saw a guy summing there and he yelled out to the guy "Why are you swimming here, it's dangerous!" and the guy replied "No it's not". The cop then asked "Didn't you read the sign?" And the guy replied yea, it said "Dangerous? No. Swimming allowed" so I figured it was safe to swim here."

 

:lol:

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The other day i sat with two people at a lunch meeting a was who are arguing about the warmth and the snow that may come in late January, one side said Long Island will have a warmer trend and little if any actual snow this winter and the other said we would have heavy snows late January in to march, the strange part was they each had very strong sounding evidence that it seemed they we each right.

 

Im so confused for this winter.

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The other day i sat with two people at a lunch meeting a was who are arguing about the warmth and the snow that may come in late January, one side said Long Island will have a warmer trend and little if any actual snow this winter and the other said we would have heavy snows late January in to march, the strange part was they each had very strong sounding evidence that it seemed they we each right.

Im so confused this for this winter.

Nobody knows

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Well 0z gfs cancels the storm party for us at least pretty quickly and torches us for the remainder of December (how fitting).

70s still look good for Xmas eve.

Already said this a million times in this thread. The pattern starts to  look better right after the New Year. Nothing new in that regards.

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Already said this a million times in this thread. The pattern starts to look better right after the New Year. Nothing new in that regards.

Surely you know by now that it's pointless. There will always be something to complain about. Cik will be along shortly to post the February CFS which is back to showing +10 departures.

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If you take the time to read and digest some of the good information out there about this pattern progression, you will see good news all around with respect to the second half. The strat is behaving very similar to 57-58, with an all out assault occurring currently and modeled to continue for the foreseeable future. Both the GFS and Euro have forecasted splits in the lower strat in the 7-10 day range with a stout Scandinavian ridge now showing on all ensemble guidance, pointing to increased warming attacks on the PV. At this point, it's a matter of when, not if, the PV displaces or splits. Just need some of these changes to propagate to the upper strat. Way LR ensemble guidance (d10-d15) has now removed the ridge in the east and replaced it with a raging PNA. That Scandinavian ridge would also act as a block. From where I sit, things look good to very good from mid January through mid March. Best guess as of now would be:

 

January +3;  6-10" (well above first half, a bit below second half)

February -2;  14-18"

March -3;  4-8"

 

Some maps: Last night's Euro Strat d10 forecasts for 10 and 50hpa respectively. 

post-4037-0-70726900-1450704254_thumb.pn

post-4037-0-06600400-1450704261_thumb.pn

 

The GFS from a couple of days ago showing a PV split at 50hpa

post-4037-0-65346500-1450704358_thumb.gi

 

The Euro forecasting a split in the lower strat.

post-4037-0-15254500-1450704814_thumb.pn

 

Here is the modeled d10 Scandinavian block from last night's GEFS and EPS. This will help promote increased strat warming, which in fact, you can see in the strat images above.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40.png

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

Borrowing from my good friend Superstorm93...some 57-58 images, showing a strong cold PV just as we have this year, being perturbed in much the same way, around the same time. And eventually splitsville. December, January, then February

post-4037-0-23602600-1450704581_thumb.gi

post-4037-0-08670700-1450704632_thumb.gi

post-4037-0-92763700-1450704640_thumb.gi

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