Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 miller a ccb's tend to go west... boxing day and jan 2000 come to mind makes sense, the storm matures earlier. Miller B bombs out almost overhead and matures later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yep. We had two decent events the 1st or 2nd week of December. I think a cutter changed the pattern after that, central nj was in the single digits that morning only to be raining by 8pm that's the worst. I remember as a kid thinking "no way can it rain, it's 7 degrees!" Oh yes it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 that's the worst. I remember as a kid thinking "no way can it rain, it's 7 degrees!" Oh yes it can This happens all the time and why I completely discard the cold fetish that some people have on this board. The fact of the matter is, it all comes down the pattern and storm track as opposed to preceding airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We had about a foot here in Edison I believe, the morning event greatly out performed the backside snows. I believe the forecast was for the backside to be the main show. It would be nice to get a CCB overhead dropping some huge amounts this winter.I had a little over 12" in Bay Ridge while my parents got 16" in Dobbs Ferry on 2/14/14. The backside CCB only dropped 2-4" in most locales after a hellacious front end thump. That is the last 12" event I have witnessed. Last winter was extremely cold, but the largest snowfall was 9" in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Juno was nice out here on the island. 15 or so at my old place in nassau, and around 20 in my current place in suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Pretty much as gloomy as it gets right now. I really despise this time of year. Gray gloomy no more fall foliage to brighten things up and no chance at snow or cold. For me the worst weather is a day like today just 15 degrees colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 fog season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Pretty much as gloomy as it gets right now. I really despise this time of year. Gray gloomy no more fall foliage to brighten things up and no chance at snow or cold. For me the worst weather is a day like today just 15 degrees colder Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Pretty much as gloomy as it gets right now. I really despise this time of year. Gray gloomy no more fall foliage to brighten things up and no chance at snow or cold. For me the worst weather is a day like today just 15 degrees colder I actually like days like this but only if the temperatures are still comfortable enough like today. Oh and some wind would be nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Pretty much as gloomy as it gets right now. I really despise this time of year. Gray gloomy no more fall foliage to brighten things up and no chance at snow or cold. For me the worst weather is a day like today just 15 degrees colder I guess I'm weird, I love this weather in the fall and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 I guess I'm weird, I love this weather in the fall and winter.+1 especially in the 40s. But I'm enjoying this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 What is the upgraded GEFS showing now that it's in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 +1 especially in the 40s. But I'm enjoying this If its not going to snow this time of year I prefer this weather. Once past February this becomes depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 If its not going to snow this time of year I prefer this weather. Once past February this becomes depressing 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 I guess I'm weird, I love this weather in the fall and winter. Your weird. It's so dark at mid day I had to put the light on in the kitchen getting ready for work!!! The fact that it's fairly mild is helping though. Like I said 15 degrees colder would be awful. I personally love sun and the summer. But I am obsessed with snow too making real winter my second favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 Your weird. It's so dark at mid day I had to put the light on in the kitchen getting ready for work!!! The fact that it's fairly mild is helping though. Like I said 15 degrees colder would be awful. I personally love sun and the summer. But I am obsessed with snow too making real winter my second favorite I don't mind summer as long as we get a few good severe wx events. This summer sucked for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Spring, summer and fall all can go eat it for all I care. At this point winter can too the way it's looking. I mean come on its December 2nd and we haven't even had a flurry here in the city. That's embarrassing to tell anyone. And I don't see a flurry in the next 10 days! I have never been do disappointed from this El Niño. I remember the 97-98 El Niño we got a measly 5 inches of snow in March it was disgusting I just kept waiting and waiting and finally I got some, it was an early morning snowfall that honestly nobody in the media predicted so it was a surprise. The day before we had the snow we had a high of 34 with some ice and sleet combined with rain but no snow. At least we got some snow I'm sure we'll get some this year too but I'm so impatient that each day I check the models they look warmer and warmer. Hopefully this trends the other way. Take care my fellow weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We have actually seen an historic run of very snowy Decembers since 1995. Just take a look at all the lackluster Decembers for snowfall in NYC between 1963 and 1995. The 2000's have alternated between historic snowy Decembers and mild ones with very little snow. So it's easier to take a mild one with below normal snowfall considering how impressive the last 20 years have been. NYC 10" or greater snowfall Decembers since 1963: 1963...11.3" 1995...11.5" 2000...13.4" 2002...11.0" 2003...19.8" 2009...12.4" 2010...20.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We have actually seen an historic run of very snowy Decembers since 1995. Just take a look at all the lackluster Decembers for snowfall in NYC between 1963 and 1995. The 2000's have alternated between historic snowy Decembers and mild ones with very little snow. So it's easier to take a mild one with below normal snowfall considering how impressive the last 20 years have been. NYC 10" or greater snowfall Decembers since 1963: 1963...11.3" 1995...11.5" 2000...13.4" 2002...11.0" 2003...19.8" 2009...12.4" 2010...20.1" And 2005 had 9.7 and 2013 8.6. In some ways it makes it tougher because we've become accustomed to snowfalls before Christmas when during most of the 70s, 80s and 90s it was quite rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We have actually seen an historic run of very snowy Decembers since 1995. Just take a look at all the lackluster Decembers for snowfall in NYC between 1963 and 1995. The 2000's have alternated between historic snowy Decembers and mild ones with very little snow. So it's easier to take a mild one with below normal snowfall considering how impressive the last 20 years have been. NYC 10" or greater snowfall Decembers since 1963: 1963...11.3" 1995...11.5" 2000...13.4" 2002...11.0" 2003...19.8" 2009...12.4" 2010...20.1" Solid post!!! Really puts things in to perspective I agree we have been super lucky. And we are due for a stinker. I just don't think it's this winter despite what's going on currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Spring, summer and fall all can go eat it for all I care. At this point winter can too the way it's looking. I mean come on its December 2nd and we haven't even had a flurry here in the city. That's embarrassing to tell anyone. And I don't see a flurry in the next 10 days! I have never been do disappointed from this El Niño. I remember the 97-98 El Niño we got a measly 5 inches of snow in March it was disgusting I just kept waiting and waiting and finally I got some, it was an early morning snowfall that honestly nobody in the media predicted so it was a surprise. The day before we had the snow we had a high of 34 with some ice and sleet combined with rain but no snow. At least we got some snow I'm sure we'll get some this year too but I'm so impatient that each day I check the models they look warmer and warmer. Hopefully this trends the other way. Take care my fellow weenies!Move to Barrow then if all you want is winter. It's only "summer" there for a couple months out of the year and never hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 And 2005 had 9.7 and 2013 8.6. In some ways it makes it tougher because we've become accustomed to snowfalls before Christmas when during most of the 70s, 80s and 90s it was quite rare Solid post!!! Really puts things in to perspective I agree we have been super lucky. And we are due for a stinker. I just don't think it's this winter despite what's going on currently The big story of the 70's and 80's Decembers was the record cold and lack of snow. NYC still hasn't seen a single digit low during December since then. Even some of the coldest Decembers with exception of 1976 saw very little snow. 12/25/80 NYC low -1...last below zero reading in NYC during December......2.8" snow for the month 12/25/83.................4.......................................................................................1.3" 1989........................four days with single digit lows and an historic -10.3 temperature departure....1.4" snow month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The standardized 2mT anomalies for the entire month of December do not show a single clear cut below normal day! Maybe Dec. 27. Look for +3SIGMAS on Dec. 13&14 and possible new record highs, currently this would be 64,67 degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We have actually seen an historic run of very snowy Decembers since 1995. Just take a look at all the lackluster Decembers for snowfall in NYC between 1963 and 1995. The 2000's have alternated between historic snowy Decembers and mild ones with very little snow. So it's easier to take a mild one with below normal snowfall considering how impressive the last 20 years have been. NYC 10" or greater snowfall Decembers since 1963: 1963...11.3" 1995...11.5" 2000...13.4" 2002...11.0" 2003...19.8" 2009...12.4" 2010...20.1" Probably just anecdotal but growing up I remember Dec being not very snowy at all. I generally don't have much expectation for significant snow in Dec until maybe the end of the month. If something gets my attention i'll track it but I never really banked on Dec snow for City and coast. Even in favorable patterns still mild water temps makes it a struggle. Every few years you get a good snowfall but that's what probably keeps the avgs respectable. I remember alot more lightweight Decs. I'd be curious to see the median snowfall compared to the mean. What I would like to see is snow events starting to show up to the N &W at least to give hope of it reaching the coast a little later in the season. Nothing on the horizon this yr. Its raining well into interior New England & Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We have actually seen an historic run of very snowy Decembers since 1995. Just take a look at all the lackluster Decembers for snowfall in NYC between 1963 and 1995. The 2000's have alternated between historic snowy Decembers and mild ones with very little snow. So it's easier to take a mild one with below normal snowfall considering how impressive the last 20 years have been. NYC 10" or greater snowfall Decembers since 1963: 1963...11.3" 1995...11.5" 2000...13.4" 2002...11.0" 2003...19.8" 2009...12.4" 2010...20.1" December 10" or greater snowfalls... Year....date....amount"... 1872...12/26.......18.0" 1912...12/24........11.4" 1916...12/15........12.7" 1933...12/26........11.2" 1947...12/26-27...26.4" 1948...12/19-20...16.0" 1959...12/21-22...13.7" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...12/26-27...20.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 December 10" or greater snowfalls... Year....date....amount"... 1872...12/26.......18.0" 1912...12/24........11.4" 1916...12/15........12.7" 1933...12/26........11.2" 1947...12/26-27...26.4" 1948...12/19-20...16.0" 1959...12/21-22...13.7" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...12/26-27...20.0" Wow 12/26 is a hot date for big snows. Funny how it's the day after not before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Wow 12/26 is a hot date for big snows. Funny how it's the day after not before Christmas yeah 12/26 and 12/19 have four storms 8" or more...12/5 has three... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 So, I threw all those good Dec. snow years in the blender. What we really want for a good snow Dec. is a La Nina. Not too surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 yeah 12/26 and 12/19 have four storms 8" or more...12/5 has three... It's just statistical noise, nothing to see here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Just as a contrast, El Nino Dec.(Nino 3) gives this type of look at 500 mb. Not too surprising to see a warm Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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