mattinpa Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 That's not what he said though. I think it's a fair call, especially for January. February I like as -1 but wouldn't be shocked if it was above average. But his posts do tend to favor the warm side. That's just how he is and I often agree to disagree because I always like cold and especially snow in winter. My feeling is +2 for Jan because the step down would happen. Feb maybe -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 But his posts do tend to favor the warm side. That's just how he is and I often agree to disagree because I always like cold and especially snow in winter. My feeling is +2 for Jan because the step down would happen. Feb maybe -2. But he's not just favoring above average for the hell of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Below freezing here for the first time in about 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 For all intents and purposes, it's been a snowless autumn and beginning of winter region-wide... tenuous dustings of icy grains notwithstanding.Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Overnight euro run was ugly....huge cutoff and pac air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 But he's not just favoring above average for the hell of it. Well now he has a case, but there have been other times not so much in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Overnight euro run was ugly....huge cutoff and pac air going to be ugly for another 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Finally the Euro ensembles offer some hope by day 14. Ridging is finally showing up on the WC. By day 15 there is a trough developing in the SE. 850 anomalies on day 14 are plus 1 and N by day 15 . The 0 line at 850 is around the M/D line by day 13 so what looks warm at 500 mb 18k feet is actually N at 5k feet. The Euro ensembles are hinting at a return to N right around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Finally the Euro ensembles offer some hope by day 14. Ridging is finally showing up on the WC. By day 15 there is a trough developing in the SE. 850 anomalies on day 14 are plus 1 and N by day 15 . The 0 line at 850 is around the M/D line by day 13 so what looks warm at 500 mb 18k feet is actually N at 5k feet. The Euro ensembles are hinting at a return to N right around New Years. It's wrong, the giant ridge on the ec is permanent. We now live in a Mediterranean climate. No snow will ever fall again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Below freezing here for the first time in about 10 days Not here. Hit 32 degrees. It's wrong, the giant ridge on the ec is permanent. We now live in a Mediterranean climate. No snow will ever fall again It seems like that according to some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Not here. Hit 32 degrees. It seems like that according to some people. The good news is when the rubber band snaps we score in the other direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 The good news is when the rubber band snaps we score in the other directionThe rubber band did snap after the last 2 winters and a record cold Feb.And today actually feels like latter December, I'd forgotten what that was like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Forky owes someone $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I don't think the 'elastic analogy' works here, since it is best for short term pops in either direction. Our pattern has been welded into place by a super El Nino. Only a favorable (not 2012) SSWE can salvage any of the winter by busting up the Polar Vortex (mitosis is what is needed here man!) Looking at the CFS for Seattle which probably teleconnects well with NYC, the next 60 days are hopeless for us as they remain -5degs. with virtually no ensemble members above the normal line and we go the other way. This seems even worse than it was recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 These patterns don't just snap , but they do step down. The Ensembles and weeklies show this. If you don't see it and are only married to one model than you will miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 in 2007 the ao started to flip to negative around Jan. 21st...It was negative most of February and returned to positive in March...As we get later into the winter the plus ao/nao has less weight on the pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It's wrong, the giant ridge on the ec is permanent. We now live in a Mediterranean climate. No snow will ever fall again Haha. It actually snows in the Mediterranean, especially the eastern half on the European side. Greece gets a few snowfalls each winter down to the beaches on average and the mountains get slammed every year. There's like 20 ski resorts scattered throughout the country. This is more like south Cali type "Mediterranean" climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Haha. It actually snows in the Mediterranean, especially the eastern half on the European side. Greece gets a few snowfalls each winter down to the beaches on average and the mountains get slammed every year. There's like 20 ski resorts scattered throughout the country. This is more like south Cali type "Mediterranean" climate. Eastern Europe, especially the Balkans, is a great place for snow. My friend reported snow in the mountains of Montenegro during a September bike trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Eastern Europe, especially the Balkans, is a great place for snow. My friend reported snow in the mountains of Montenegro during a September bike trip.i am originally from Montenegro, and it snows maybe once a year but this year the city where I was born Podgorica, Montenegro has gotten to 32 or lower twice so it was technically lower than here. It usually snows once a year but rain usually follows. There are some great ski areas in Montenegro. And the beaches during the summer are amazing. Check out the Budva, Montenegro it's really beautiful and women are sexy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Forky owes someone $ You get some flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Next chance for an accidental cold day will not be till Jan. 07 +/- a day. A longer term accident may begin near Jan. 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 You get some flakes? About 4 but orange had some showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Eastern Europe, especially the Balkans, is a great place for snow. My friend reported snow in the mountains of Montenegro during a September bike trip. They tend to get better access to very cold air that drops down from Russia while the western half of Europe has the Atlantic flooding them with warmth. I've seen snow still present on a mountaintop in Greece in the first week of July. It was only a small patch in a shady area but nevertheless it was still there and only at about 5000 feet elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 i am originally from Montenegro, and it snows maybe once a year but this year the city where I was born Podgorica, Montenegro has gotten to 32 or lower twice so it was technically lower than here. It usually snows once a year but rain usually follows. There are some great ski areas in Montenegro. And the beaches during the summer are amazing. Check out the Budva, Montenegro it's really beautiful and women are sexy! What happened to being from Luxembourg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Forky owes someone $ Around SWF https://www.instagram.com/p/_elWEFG44Y/ Courtesy of JC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 i am originally from Montenegro, and it snows maybe once a year but this year the city where I was born Podgorica, Montenegro has gotten to 32 or lower twice so it was technically lower than here. It usually snows once a year but rain usually follows. There are some great ski areas in Montenegro. And the beaches during the summer are amazing. Check out the Budva, Montenegro it's really beautiful and women are sexy! It all makes sense now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Put out an APB for the snow please: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=12&fhour=384¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 At least the makings of our next accidental cold day, say Jan. 07, is showing up----but it is clearly too far west and not coming at us direct from over Hudson Bay yet. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=12&fhour=384¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Flurrying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 At least the makings of our next accidental cold day, say Jan. 07, is showing up----but it is clearly too far west and not coming at us direct from over Hudson Bay yet. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=12&fhour=384¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Maybe go enjoy the nice weather or something? You seem to be getting obsessed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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