Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looking at the pattern for the next weeks there's really not much to get excited about. Indices don't look very favorable and the promise of something better is relatively weak, not to mention way out there in la la land. Odds probably favor the CFS depiction and we may never get the change we want. I'm sticking with a much better pattern come February but that could easily bust too. The problem is how do we suddenly shift a regime that's been a force since May. That's the big question. It's been stubborn for 7 months straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looking at the pattern for the next weeks there's really not much to get excited about. Indices don't look very favorable and the promise of something better is relatively weak, not to mention way out there in la la land. Odds probably favor the CFS depiction and we may never get the change we want. I'm sticking with a much better pattern come February but that could easily bust too. The problem is how do we suddenly shift a regime that's been a force since May. CFS depiction for the end of the January isn't bad at all. CFS shows a warm start to January and a colder one towards the end of January. I like what I am seeing on all of the models in regards to the PV. I think changes are going to come mid to late January just like last year. Hang in there, it will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Pretty big model war setting up for JFM with the new JMA joining forces with the CFS against the Euro and JAMSTEC. For those who are interested, here's a comparison of the ugly JMA and CFSv2 forecasts for January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 For those who are interested, here's a comparison of the ugly JMA and CFSv2 forecasts for January 2016. Plus 1C anomaly at 850 is colder than plus 3C at the surface . Look at it`s 500 the trough is in the SE . A plus 1 or 2C is in line with the Euro . VS THE CFS where TROUGH IN THE SW . They are not totally in the same camp . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 You guys are not looking at this right Plus 1C anomaly at 850 is colder than plus 3C at the surface . Look at it`s 500 the trough is in the SE . A plus 1 or 2C is in line with the Euro . VS THE CFS where TROUGH IN THE SW . They are not totally in the same camp . The CFSv2 is clearly much warmer than the JMA (even as both charts show different temperatures 850 mb vs. 2m). IMO, the JMA's idea looks more reasonable from this far out given how I think the pattern will evolve. However, I'd prefer cooler than what either model shows, but am not sure it will be cooler than let's say 2°F above normal in the NYC area just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 The CFSv2 is clearly much warmer than the JMA (even as both charts show different temperatures 850 mb vs. 2m). IMO, the JMA's idea looks more reasonable from this far out given how I think the pattern will evolve. I agree . If the CFS is right and digs the trough into the west like that , its game over . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm selfishly rooting for the first snowless winter on record due to its rarity from a meteorological perspective. If the pattern never changes, then it could happen but there could always be a sneaky system like in 01/02 and there's plenty of time for it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Pretty big model war setting up for JFM with the new JMA joining forces with the CFS against the Euro and JAMSTEC. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/index.html MV5BMjIwNTYzMzE1M15BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwOTE5Mzg3OA@@._V1_SX214_AL_.jpg Yeah that is disturbing. When it was just the CFS..I felt while it had a chance of finding the nut..with other guidance not supporting it..it wasn't overly likely. Anything that will bust my ratter winter forecast would be welcomed. But having something support the CFS isn't what we wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm selfishly rooting for the first snowless winter on record due to its rarity from a meteorological perspective. If the pattern never changes, then it could happen but there could always be a sneaky system like in 01/02 and there's plenty of time for it to snow. What's wrong with you? I don't even know what to say, except that it's pretty much impossible, maybe a once in a 1000 year event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 What's wrong with you? I don't even know what to say, except that it's pretty much impossible, maybe a once in a 1000 year eventHe use to be a big snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I've already seen snow once this year in my backyard so it's not a snowless season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 GFS is showing a snowy nor'easter around January 2nd 2016. I still think it's a joke but it's nice to look at! I honestly think winter will get here soon and when it does it'll be relentless. I'm still sticking to 48inches of snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I saw a couple flakes back in October but I'm really not counting it. Tonight's chance of rogue lake effect might produce a little something better. Maybe a "heavy flurry." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 GFS is showing a snowy nor'easter around January 2nd 2016. I still think it's a joke but it's nice to look at! I honestly think winter will get here soon and when it does it'll be relentless. I'm still sticking to 48inches of snow for the city. Three days ago winter was over for you. Good to see you back on the snowy side. Otherwise we truly we're screwed I have outdoor herbs that are still going strong, that's just wrong!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I agree . If the CFS is right and digs the trough into the west like that , its game over . Right now, I don't think that will happen. By mid-January, we'll probably have a good idea whether the relaxation in the current pattern marked the start of an evolving larger-scale change or was temporary. I'm still leaning toward the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm selfishly rooting for the first snowless winter on record due to its rarity from a meteorological perspective. If the pattern never changes, then it could happen but there could always be a sneaky system like in 01/02 and there's plenty of time for it to snow. I assume you mean no measurable snowfall. Its happen in Philly, 72-73 I believe with just a trace. So theoretically it could happen here, the climate isn't that significantly different over those 90 miles or so on the Turnpike. 97-98 came close with 0.5" before that surprise late March 5" storm. By that point I didn't care about snow anymore I'd rather just take the record. I remember that morning snowfall well. It melted in a couple hours under the late March sun. If you slept late you may have hardly noticed. I think Philly had a another Trace winter total in the 1800s ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I've already seen snow once this year in my backyard so it's not a snowless season. I didn't realize your backyard represented the entire tristate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I didn't realize your backyard represented the entire tristate area. Many of us saw snow falling back in October.. Not just his area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Many of us saw snow falling back in October.. Not just his area Measurable? I guess I should be clear about seeing the first winter without measurable snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I saw a couple flakes back in October but I'm really not counting it. Tonight's chance of rogue lake effect might produce a little something better. Maybe a "heavy flurry." Some places up here on the ridges may see a coating within the next 24 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Measurable? I know animal in Highland Lakes had measurable. Most of us just had on and off flurries throughout the day on 10/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I havent seen any flakes yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Gotta say: this thread is beyond depressing. I realize many of us are waiting for the snow and cold but it shouldnt mean the end of mdel discussion both short and long term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I didn't realize your backyard represented the entire tristate area. I didn't realize your backyard did either. Many of us have already seen this snow this year, so your statement about a snowless season is technically false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Some places up here on the ridges may see a coating within the next 24 hrs.. Yeah I read that as well. Probably some flurries for most of NWNJ at best though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Die PV die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We're talking about measurable snow, not some flakes flying around in the air. Who here has measurable snow, when and how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I havent seen any flakes yet with your job that's amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We're talking about measurable snow, not some flakes flying around in the air. Who here has measurable snow, when and how much? Exactly. And no, coming your hair in the morning and having a heavy dusting coat your shirt doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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