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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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You noticed where I  called for an above N December but a NEG EPO in J - M and decided just as the EPO is forecast to go NEG on the weeklies to pull up exactly what I said ?

 

Makes sense . 

I think everyone is very clear on what you're thinking, you've posted about it umpteen times.  We'll see what happens.

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I think everyone is very clear on what you're thinking, you've posted about it umpteen times.  We'll see what happens.

 

 

So why not troll in your name ? Why hide behind his skirt ?  So let me get this straight if I post in the ENSO thread and I am right its annoying but if I am wrong  in your opinion before I`m wrong then you troll it ? 

 

 

 

If you think  I am wrong why not debate it . I don`t see the troll posts for the guys who blew up in the ENSO thread. I mean they THOROUGHLY blew up this year .

 

So our ideas differ , you`re right we`ll see what happens . 

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So why not troll in your name ? Why hide behind his skirt ? So let me get this straight if I post in the ENSO thread and I am right its annoying but if I am wrong in your opinion before I`m wrong then you troll it ?

If you think I am wrong why not debate it . I don`t see the troll posts for the guys who blew up in the ENSO thread. I mean they THOROUGHLY blew up this year .

So our ideas differ , you`re right we`ll see what happens .

Me and mike were discussing it and he posted it. And it has nothing to do with your forecasting. Its your repetive phrasing. Hence the reference to wendy finding "all work and no play makes jack a dull boy" over and over again.

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So our ideas differ , you`re right we`ll see what happens . 

I honestly don't pay attention to all the drama that goes on around here, or anyplace else for that matter, but I think there's a void of people nowadays who can participate in a conversation, I think that they just lack the skills. If one has a different opinion than they have then that person is the enemy and obviously wrong because they don't think the same way the other does.  How and if that pertains to whatever is going on now I have no idea.

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I honestly don't pay attention to all the drama that goes on around here, or anyplace else for that matter, but I think there's a void of people nowadays who can participate in a conversation, I think that they just lack the skills. If one has a different opinion than they have then that person is the enemy and obviously wrong because they don't think the same way the other does.  How and if that pertains to whatever is going on now I have no idea.

 

I disrespectfully agree.

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Keep studying the stratosphere dude. We are in a westerly QBO, not an easterly, easterly is negative, westerly is positive. Just food for thought

Incorrect. QBO has flipped easterly at 10hpa. This likely enhances chances of additional SSWEs, which originate at the highest levels of the strat and then work their way down to 30 and then 50hpa.

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That is highly, highly debatable.  I think there's a fundamental reason for caution with the whole SSW=Cold east rhetoric that has been ramping up lately.  That is not necessarily the case.  98 is a great cautionary tale for that.

Noted and agreed. I do think the SSWE, PV displacement theory holds water and we will at the very least flip the pattern to more zonal the second half. The more unproven science is SAI correlation to high latitude blocking. With record SAI over Siberia earlier in the Fall, this year will finally put Cohen's theory to the test. 

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Looking at the pattern for the next weeks there's really not much to get excited about. Indices don't look very favorable and the promise of something better is relatively weak, not to mention way out there in la la land.

Odds probably favor the CFS depiction and we may never get the change we want.

I'm sticking with a much better pattern come February but that could easily bust too. The problem is how do we suddenly shift a regime that's been a force since May.

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