Rjay Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Still raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Hopefully, we won't have to track warmth for more than the next several weeks. Agree Don , it is not the only pathway to shift the trough into the east . We saw a POS AO last year during a cold pattern . Def not optimal but the EURO weeklies hint a - EPO+PNA once into early JAN . If it is right 850 anomalies shift back to near N in the E by mid month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Thanks for the backing up your posts Don. I disagree that no guidance showed it today but it was in the weenie range and should be discounted for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 This is the kind of event we need to see so that we can have a complete top-down event. One of my favorite analogs since it closely resembles the OLR anomalies in the Pacific right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Thanks for the backing up your posts Don. I disagree that no guidance showed it today but it was in the weenie range and should be discounted for now. I tend to look for more dramatic warmings than what's currently shown. The hint of a shift toward EPO- described by PB GFI is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 This is the kind of event we need to see so that we can have a complete top-down event. One of my favorite analogs since it closely resembles the OLR anomalies in the Pacific right now. 12/23/1957 was among the 8-day GFS ensemble 500 mb analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 12/23/1957 was among the 8-day GFS ensemble 500 mb analogs. I saw that earlier today. While its a long shot now, that type of reversal would be excellent come Feb/Mar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New Jamstec that just came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New Jamstec that just came out Almost the whole earth is a torch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Almost the whole earth is a torch lol Except our area. -EPO signature on the Jamstec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Looks like there's two clear camps with the first showing a warm continuation for most of winter 97/98 style, and the second which had great turnaround late Jan/Feb. I think there'll be some sort of reversal by late Jan just not as extreme as other years. I can see how we go from +12 in Dec to +6 in Jan to 0/+1 in Feb, which would greatly increase our snow chances. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Don/Paul, good discussion. It's nice to see some pattern analysis for a change. I agree with you that this current warming event will not be enough to displace the currently uber cold and strong PV, but there is evidence that another attack later in the month and especially another the first week of Jan will lead to this change. QBO is now easterly, which should help promote these continued attacks. As you know, it is a step down process and for that reason I wouldn't necessarily say it's a meaningless warming event occurring now. But I get what you mean. Last nights Euro (below) is even hinting at a resurgence of warmth down to 50hpa after backing off in the mid range. I am also impressed by the 10hpa warmth forecast to flank the PV over the Atlantic and Europe (also below). This current event may just roll right into the next one with no break in between. This is the kind of assault on PV we will need to continue to see if we are to break this current pattern. Anyone who denies the existence of SSWEs, as a couple of posters did above, needs to do some research. Their impacts though are certainly hotly debated. For this reason, saying Anthony and I do not understand it is partially accurate because no one truly does and I am certainly no expert. Impacts of SSWEs and SAI is evolving science; a long range pattern forecasting holy grail of sorts. Overall, Don/Paul, I agree that Winter should return by mid January with at the very least a return to normal temps. If we are lucky, and if Judah Cohen's theory is accurate, all that Siberian snow cover will help drive the AO negative, which would make things very interesting for the second half. There is some evidence on the ensembles of height falls across the northern and eastern tier, but too soon to tell if that is anything meaningful. The CFS and EPS para are also showing a return to the cold and let's not discount the Jamstec posted above. Last night's 0z GEFS is ugly on the surface (pardon the pun) but it does illustrate a step down might be in progress aloft with lowering heights (not as high) over the eastern CONUS and signs the Aleutian low retrogrades and allows for the EPO to go neg in the LR. Take with a grain of salt, but this is now multiple runs in a row and has support from many LR models. Last night's CFS sub monthly also hinted at this return to Winter (below) in mid-late January. The more recent run erased this, but the wild fluctuations themselves can often times be indicative of a coming pattern change. There is still that strong correlation between the -AO we had in July, the rapid SAI increase through the fall and DJF blocking prospects as well. There is only one year that didn't feature a DJF -AO modality after a -AO in July. December is shot, obviously. Seeing these warming event occur in multitude and with greater intensity with each wave definitely gives me hope. Cautiously optimistic right now as all the pieces we need to come together are in motion to some degree. My point earlier was that anyone looking at d10 or d15 forecasts will be disappointed. It will take another 10-15 days for the possible positive effects of the weakening El Niño and strat warming to show on even our longest range models. And we know how variable those can be day-to-day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Considering that, "no hands", typing skill, i'm surprised they let you go.It's more surprising than this weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Welcome back Ms Tabitha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Except our area. -EPO signature on the Jamstec. And it's dead wrong on surface anomalies because January and Feb are not going to overcome record Dec warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 And it's dead wrong on surface anomalies because January and Feb are not going to overcome record Dec warmth. I doubt it also but this model has been good the past few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Don/Paul, good discussion. It's nice to see some pattern analysis for a change. I agree with you that this current warming event will not be enough to displace the currently uber cold and strong PV, but there is evidence that another attack later in the month and especially another the first week of Jan will lead to this change. QBO is now easterly, which should help promote these continued attacks. As you know, it is a step down process and for that reason I wouldn't necessarily say it's a meaningless warming event occurring now. But I get what you mean. Last nights Euro (below) is even hinting at a resurgence of warmth down to 50hpa after backing off in the mid range. I am also impressed by the 10hpa warmth forecast to flank the PV over the Atlantic and Europe (also below). This current event may just roll right into the next one with no break in between. This is the kind of assault on PV we will need to continue to see if we are to break this current pattern. Anyone who denies the existence of SSWEs, as a couple of posters did above, needs to do some research. Their impacts though are certainly hotly debated. For this reason, saying Anthony and I do not understand it is partially accurate because no one truly does and I am certainly no expert. Impacts of SSWEs and SAI is evolving science; a long range pattern forecasting holy grail of sorts. Overall, Don/Paul, I agree that Winter should return by mid January with at the very least a return to normal temps. If we are lucky, and if Judah Cohen's theory is accurate, all that Siberian snow cover will help drive the AO negative, which would make things very interesting for the second half. There is some evidence on the ensembles of height falls across the northern and eastern tier, but too soon to tell if that is anything meaningful. The CFS and EPS para are also showing a return to the cold and let's not discount the Jamstec posted above. Last night's 0z GEFS is ugly on the surface (pardon the pun) but it does illustrate a step down might be in progress aloft with lowering heights (not as high) over the eastern CONUS and signs the Aleutian low retrogrades and allows for the EPO to go neg in the LR. Take with a grain of salt, but this is now multiple runs in a row and has support from many LR models. Last night's CFS sub monthly also hinted at this return to Winter (below) in mid-late January. The more recent run erased this, but the wild fluctuations themselves can often times be indicative of a coming pattern change. There is still that strong correlation between the -AO we had in July, the rapid SAI increase through the fall and DJF blocking prospects as well. There is only one year that didn't feature a DJF -AO modality after a -AO in July. December is shot, obviously. Seeing these warming event occur in multitude and with greater intensity with each wave definitely gives me hope. Cautiously optimistic right now as all the pieces we need to come together are in motion to some degree. My point earlier was that anyone looking at d10 or d15 forecasts will be disappointed. It will take another 10-15 days for the possible positive effects of the weakening El Niño and strat warming to show on even our longest range models. And we know how variable those can be day-to-day as well. Larry Cosgrove said this this morning. Be patient for changes. I expected this warmth three months ago, and I think we will see a big shift next month. Sounds like more and more people are agreeing on a pattern change for mid to late January with the stratospheric warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 And it's dead wrong on surface anomalies because January and Feb are not going to overcome record Dec warmth. Agree , Dec +12 ish will not get erased over the following 60 day period . I could see a trough in the means in the SE , but the damage will have been done 2m wise when we total it all up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 The CFS weeklies look awful with basically off the scale temps. till mid-Jan. In fact they look worse than a week ago. I need a better pair of sunglasses just to view them We are lucky we are not in the July-Aug timeframe with this outlook. That would be 45x 90-deg-days, and six of those in the 100's I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 60 day CFS looks worse than ever. Mean value line is above the normal line all the way into Feb., after we get rid of soon to be accidental cold weekend. No ensemble members are below the line till Jan 5! Area under normal line clearly smaller than area above throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 This winter is a bust I mean we can still get some snow obviously but it looks like global warming is really taking over at this point not just here but globally. Look at that map that Anthony posted the jamstec. I feel terrible about it just as everyone else on here but we had two great winters in a row I guess extreme weather is on tap to continue. If it's cold it'll be frozen tundra, if it's warm it's a torch. I'm giving it another month but slowly giving up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Disagree. Both the CFS and Euro Weeklies show signs of what may be an improving pattern down the road (e.g., decreasing temp departures with barely AN temps). However, once again, d15 progs are not going to show a massive NAO block that may develop in 50 days. What's more, the CFS is flip-flopping. I posted a map from yesterday evening above showing below normal temps on the CFS. This morning's run has flipped. Bec careful not to cherry-pick maps that conform to a preferred viewpoint. A pattern change around mid January is on track regardless of what you see on a d15 ensemble map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 60 day CFS looks worse than ever. Mean value line is above the normal line all the way into Feb., after we get rid of soon to be accidental cold weekend. No ensemble members are below the line till Jan 5! Area under normal line clearly smaller than area above throughout. It's early enough where one cannot completely shut winter down. Now if a month later we're still looking at the same pattern with no sign of change then yeah different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It would suck if the pattern truly changed come April and we have a cool, damp Spring. Those are just as bad as crap Winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It would suck if the pattern truly changed come April and we have a cool, damp Spring. Those are just as bad as crap Winters. Might very well be the case if things keep getting pushed back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Might very well be the case if things keep getting pushed back.... Snow less winter in store? Honestly, the models that showed a pattern change in Jan, did it have the warmth anomalies this extreme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 So far nothing is pushed back .... Come early Jan if the look at 500 is still terrible then that will be the 1st time it will be pushed back Jan 10 - 15 has always been the period to watch for That has not changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I'll say this winter probably has more of a 06/07 vibe than say 11/12. 2011-2012 had no cold anywhere in the US and it could've easily been a practically snow free winter outside of that freak October event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Well do not worry. CFS seasonal forecasts are>>>>> Spring +4 & Summer +1 for us ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 So far nothing is pushed back .... Come early Jan if the look at 500 is still terrible then that will be the 1st time it will be pushed back Jan 10 - 15 has always been the period to watch for That has not changed. I agree with this not just because I want snow but ..many people on board with this .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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