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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Sometimes low level moisture isn't picked up if it's close to the ground. Maybe a met can give a more technical answer.

Yeah I understand. I'm on the train and just see what looks like normal rain. As soon as I'm off im sure I'll be able to tell its low level mist/drizzle. It was dry still in Manhattan when I left

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Right now, there's no guidance supporting a meaningful stratospheric warming event. Some relatively minor warming is forecast, but the magnitude falls well short of the kind of warming events that can displace or split the polar vortex.

Stratosphere12162015.jpg

Sources: FU Berlin and CPC/NCEP

This! Hopefully the weenies can stay a bay for a bit...or at the other site with there cold and snow dreams

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Right now, there's no guidance supporting a meaningful stratospheric warming event. Some relatively minor warming is forecast, but the magnitude falls well short of the kind of warming events that can displace or split the polar vortex.

 

Stratosphere12162015.jpg
 
Sources: FU Berlin and CPC/NCEP

 

 

 

Don take a look at the Euro at 10mb  .

Is it subtle  ? . The question is does this continue / or is it another false start . 

 

We have seen the EURO hint at this before only to back off , and again it does not yet knock it off the pole . 

We would need to see this progress  far more than what this is showing to displace the vortex .   

 

post-7472-0-13454300-1450305645.png

 

 

post-7472-0-28298300-1450305639.png

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Don take a look at the Euro at 10mb  .

Is it  subtle  ? . The question is does this continue / or is it another false start . 

 

We have seen the EURO hint at this before only to back off , and again it does not yet knock it off the pole . 

We would need to see this progress  far more than what this is showing to displace the vortex .   

 

 

 

 

 

I'd like to see it expand down toward 30 mb. Right now, this appears to be a minor event (10 mb temperatures warm toward normal) that is confined to the highest levels of the stratosphere (30 mb temperatures remain much colder than normal). It helps a little, but we need more to displace or even split the polar vortex.

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I'd like to see it expand down toward 30 mb. Right now, this appears to be a minor event (10 mb temperatures warm toward normal) that is confined to the highest levels of the stratosphere (30 mb temperatures remain much colder than normal). It helps a little, but we need more to displace or even split the polar vortex.

 

 I will not post anymore Euro images , I just went through days 1 thru 10 at 30mb and you are correct , it does not make it`s way down through day 10 . 

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 I will not post anymore Euro images , I just went through days 1 thru 10 at 30mb and you are correct , it does not make it`s way down through day 10 . 

Hopefully, this event will be the first in a series of increasingly more impressive warming events that will lead to the displacement of the PV and development of sustained blocking by mid- or late-January as occurred during such El Niño winters as 1957-58 and 1965-66. 

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Hopefully, this event will be the first in a series of increasingly more impressive warming events that will lead to the displacement of the PV and development of sustained blocking by mid- or late-January as occurred during such El Niño winters as 1957-58 and 1965-66.

Thanks for clearing this all up....look forward to tracking the warm temps for the next several weeks

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