WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Are you seriously cancelling winter in mid December? no my depression just hit. I think we'll still get snow come january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 no my depression just hit. I think we'll still get snow come january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Lock up 384 hr 12z gfs. There's our New Years snow bomb. Beautiful setup too with that strong banana high and PNA spike out west. Too bad it's only a fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Are you seriously cancelling winter in mid December? This is seriously seriously bad. Tony is usually calling for record breaking snow and cold. I'm scared now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Lock up 384 hr 12z gfs. There's our New Years snow bomb. I'm getting the shovel out of the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This is San Diego all over again. It's time to pay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Lock up 384 hr 12z gfs. There's our New Years snow bomb.No doubter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'm getting the shovel out of the basement. Unless you're using it to bury a body I'd put it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 if you look at the op gfs past 240 hours you should have your eyes gouged out with a screwdriver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 If you look at a model and you see snow you should pick a different model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 At least the GFS had the snowstorm and made Chrstmas a little cooler. Let snow lovers see some hope after all this warm weather. We know the long range changes from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 if you look at the op gfs past 240 hours you should have your eyes gouged out with a screwdriver That sounds violent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Earthlight says hang in there. Winter comes mid to late january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Earthlight says hang in there. Winter comes mid to late january. Good to hear he's on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Earthlight says hang in there. Winter comes mid to late january. I'm good with 1.5 to 2 months of torch. By late Jan days are noticeably longer, sunshine is stronger, and our average temps are on the rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'm good with 1.5 to 2 months of torch. By late Jan days are noticeably longer, sunshine is stronger, and our average temps are on the rise. So what's the implication? February is often a winter powerhouse despite increasing sun and slowly rising climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'm good with 1.5 to 2 months of torch. By late Jan days are noticeably longer, sunshine is stronger, and our average temps are on the rise. That reminds me of something pam would say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Lock up 384 hr 12z gfs. There's our New Years snow bomb. Beautiful setup too with that strong banana high and PNA spike out west. Too bad it's only a fantasy. Temps are in the 50's at that hour along the coast on the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Temps are in the 50's at that hour along the coast on the 06z run.Did you see how bad the new ECMWF ensembles look all the way to the very end of the run? Warmth and zero high latitude blocking from now till as far as the eye can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Did you see how bad the new ECMWF ensembles look all the way to the very end of the run? Warmth and zero high latitude blocking from now till as far as the eye can seeThere is clear improvement toward the end of both the GEFS and EPS runs. The Stratospheric warming event over the next week perturbs the PV enough to begin lowering heights over northern Canada which effectively begins pushing this insidious warmth out, and likely, permanently. Putting that aside, you're still looking at a d15 prog expecting to see a -AO/-NAO that really won't begin showing on models for another 15 days after the end of the ensembles. Hold tight. Rockin second half is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 [quote name="wolfsheepsheadbay" post="3798512" Hold tight. Rockin second half is coming.Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Great post wolf. I am shocked no one is mentioning anything at all about the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 There is clear improvement toward the end of both the GEFS and EPS runs. The Stratospheric warming event over the next week perturbs the PV enough to begin lowering heights over northern Canada which effectively begins pushing this insidious warmth out, and likely, permanently. Putting that aside, you're still looking at a d15 prog expecting to see a -AO/-NAO that really won't begin showing on models for another 15 days after the end of the ensembles. Hold tight. Rockin second half is coming. There is no stratospheric warming event dude. None. Completely untrue. Lmao do you even know what that is or are you just making this up as you go along? The stratosphere is a freezer right now. Also if you think the ECMWF ensembles look good or are showing improvement at the end of the run you either need Pearl Vision or lessons on how to read a forecast model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I have my doubts about the second half of Winter being as great as some would have you believe. In any event, I'll be roasting chestnuts on an open fire in my backyard on Christmas in shorts. The 12z Euro had low 70's during the day on Christmas under full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 There is no stratospheric warming event dude. None. Completely untrue. Lmao do you even know what that is or are you just making this up as you go along? The stratosphere is a freezer right now. Also if you think the ECMWF ensembles look good or are showing improvement at the end of the run you either need Pearl Vision or lessons on how to read a forecast model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I haven't seen many calls of a great second half , but there have been many who believe by mid Jan this turns and the core of winter is mid Jan to mid March . What that means remains to be seen . I am AN 2 m wise J thru M , but the models are wet and if this turns at 500 then it's not a 72/73 97 /98 type winter snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 People really need to start backing up their assertions with images. Then the members gets to see who's full of crap and who's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 People really need to start backing up their assertions with images. Then the members gets to see who's full of crap and who's not. Im still searching for my images from the snowless march last year, cant seem to find them. Have you seen them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Great post wolf. I am shocked no one is mentioning anything at all about the PV. Dude, you do realize that you don't need the atmosphere to be a block of ice to get snow, right? A brief dip in a couple teleconnections (or rise, depending on which one we're talking about) at the right time can produce a massive storm, especially when you have some warm, moist air not too far away to help aid in convection. It's a win-win situation; less heating bills and more warmth for the warm lovers, and cold and snow for the snow lovers. This isn't a pattern like 2011-2012 where there was no cold air anywhere; a decent storm could definitely form in the pattern we're in, you'll just have to wait a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Im still searching for my images from the snowless march last year, cant seem to find them. Have you seen them? lol. Anyway I think Wolf is seeing what " may" be the start of warming at 10mb as we go from this on day 1 to this on day 10 on the Euro . Which is really a baby step but we have seen false starts before , so it will interesting to see if this continues as we get closer . You need to start to see this sooner than later as there is a lag to the response at 500. But it is in the guidance even if it`s slight . Whether one believes it one could make that argument but to say there is 0 disruption going on is false . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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