snywx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Even 06-07 was a dud in these parts; two sleet events. Pretty much it. And really saw no good snows in my area until dec 09, other than some piddly ones in 08 and 09. 06-07 was a terrible winter up here. Only 33". Way below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 06-07 was a terrible winter up here. Only 33". Way below average. 2 sleetstorms here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 2 sleetstorms here lol That 2nd sleet storm in March was impressive tho, I remember emailing Henry Maguisity about it and he posted it to his blog because the sleet was that impressive, but central PA I think was getting a good snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 That 2nd sleet storm in March was impressive tho, I remember emailing Henry Maguisity about it and he posted it to his blog because the sleet was that impressive, but central PA I think was getting a good snow out of it. The Valentines Day sleetstorm was more impressive. It started sleeting with temps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 That 2nd sleet storm in March was impressive tho, I remember emailing Henry Maguisity about it and he posted it to his blog because the sleet was that impressive, but central PA I think was getting a good snow out of it. Yeah, that one and the Valentine's Day storm were big snowmakers in this part of the state. But we also got a sizable sleet accumulation in the V-Day storm. The Arctic airmass that followed helped lock the pack in until Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 06-07 was a terrible winter up here. Only 33". Way below average.You missed a great winter by 70 miles or so...our vacation house just off Exit 87 on Route 17 at 1600' elevation had an excellent winter with 20" on Valentine's Day and more snow on St. Patty's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The ozone transport part is something that I haven't done much reading on. I need to look into that. I have seen some discussion on the tendency for the stronger early season PV to weaken later. As well as the modeling looking more optimistic moving forward. Getting more of an Aleutian low is key. So,yea, I agree with you. That's the reason I'm not worried too much right now. The warm Dec. isn't surprising to me, the magnitude of it might be though. I still think we find our way to near avg snowfall this year however.In simple terms, ozone particles in the stratosphere absorb the sun's rays very effectively, increasing the temperature of the stratosphere. Ozone is transported from the equatorial regions to the poles, where it accumulates, by the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC). The BDC is stronger in El Nino years, which should lead to a warmer polar stratosphere and thus a -AO.History bears this out: the majority of our great -AO/-NAO blocks have occurred in El Ninos, with February 1958 and February 2010 being the most extreme examples. This also helps explain why Ninos have more Nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Thanks for that summary. Fascinating stuff, and makes sense. I'm going to do some reading on the subject. I do recall seeing something to that effect somewhere before, but I didn't have time to go through it. Your explanation is easy to understand, thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 0z GFS was probably the worst run by far. Warmth and cutters through the rest of the month with minor cold shots after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Relax December has always been a lost cost.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Relax December has always been a lost cost.... I know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 We'll probably be able to wear shorts and a t-shirt for Christmas and New Year's. Awful and it'll make it tough to get into the holiday spirit, but we knew the first part of winter was gonna be very warm. We just have to hang in there. Things should get a lot better in mid to late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 We'll probably be able to wear shorts and a t-shirt for Christmas and New Year's. Awful and it'll make it tough to get into the holiday spirit, but we knew the first part of winter was gonna be very warm. We just have to hang in there. Things should get a lot better in mid to late January. Very warm yes but +10 and up is absurd. I think this super holiday warm up is legit and it's unbelievable. You could make a legit argument that some places would make a run at 80F if we get enough sunshine. Can you imagine near 80F temps around Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Very warm yes but +10 and up is absurd. I think this super holiday warm up is legit and it's unbelievable. You could make a legit argument that some places would make a run at 80F if we get enough sunshine. Can you imagine near 80F temps around Christmas! By year 2050 that would be the new "Normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 By year 2050 that would be the new "Normal". Good man...most likely we will end up like the people in Snowpiercer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 0z GFS was probably the worst run by far. Warmth and cutters through the rest of the month with minor cold shots after next weekend. So much for the model backing off. Well, here's to January. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 By year 2050 that would be the new "Normal". What tune are you whistling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 ...during warm periods in winter..i always tell people that 'payback' will be a b**ch..so i will stick to that and hang my hat on nzuckers' post with re: to -ao/-nao blocks that form late in winter during el-nino's...i am wavering and the wait will be long but PAYBACK will come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 winter! http://www.seejh.com/webcams/jacksonhole/townsquaresouth-west/?live#sthash.ekifFqqm.dpbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 hey prepper princess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hopefully we see some flakes this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It was 75 yesterday when I was in Maryland. Granted it's further south then us but 75 is just nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Priceless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hopefully we see some flakes this weekend You need professional help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It was 75 yesterday when I was in Maryland. Granted it's further south then us but 75 is just nuts I think we may take a serious run at 80 on Christmas Eve. That would be awesome. Chestnuts roasting on your deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I dub this the atomic southeast ridge of 2015, sunburn today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Always interesting to see how dark visible satellite images are at solar noon this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 yep, very low sun angle right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Always interesting to see how dark visible satellite images are at solar noon this time of year. Always interesting to see folks who think temperatures are related to sunburn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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