Met Winter Banter

[weatherpruf]

A super warm, mostly snowless winter? Maybe not. Those don't happen a whole lot. I think it will be warmer than ones we have had lately, but we could still get cold and snow with the right timing of the storminess. Models have plenty of moisture around.

I  think we will probably see some near misses that favor inland areas but leave us with a little thump or all sleet, probably in Feb or so, but I am not expecting a lot of snow. Good news is there will be lots of left over winter gear for cheap in the spring. I've bought snow blowers, pac boots and high quality parkas for dirt cheap as spring rolled around after a mild winter. Get two mild winters and they will be giving stuff away...the last two winters left LL Bean scrambling to make their signature boots ( hence all the knockoffs in the malls this year ) but those boots last years and if it stays mild, you will get a deal on this kind of stuff and you can put it away for when the winters get bad again, because they will, even with global warming you are going to still see winter storms at some point.

[EasternLI]

If not now, then when? There will be a non-linear increase in temperature. How did you arrive at .4C? You should probably re-evaluate your stance and utilize critical thinking.

 

This el nino is no stronger than 97/98 (even a shade weaker?), yet you see stronger surface warmth worldwide? Why is this? It's simple, Ocean heat content is exploding worldwide and the GHG forcing is increasing atmospheric water vapor content.

 

 

 

One reason could be that the PV is much stronger this year than it was that year, or even 1982-83 for that matter. Here's this year first, then 1997-98 after for comparison. Look at Dec. this year vs Dec. 1997. I'm only offering a possible reason, not getting into a AGW debate.

 

 

 

 

[weatherpruf]

Last December was very mild and NYC had 50" of snow with a -11F February.

It's common for December to be mild in a strong Nino even if the rest of the winter is warm; 57-58 is a great example. 82-83 had a +10F December with a 20" storm in February.

And what a storm it was....I remember it well, it was the biggest since 78, and nothing matched it til 96, that's how rare those kinds of storms were. 2 weeks later I was flounder fishing in Raritan Bay. Good times.

[weatherpruf]

One reason could be that the PV is much stronger this year than it was that year, or even 1982-83 for that matter. Here's this year first, then 1997-98 after for comparison. Look at Dec. this year vs Dec. 1997. I'm only offering a possible reason, not getting into a AGW debate.

 

 

10mb9065.png

 

 

10mb9065_1998.gif

To my untrained eyes they look very similar, but I defer to your knowledge. What implications would this have for our winter going forward ?

[AvantHiatus]

One reason could be that the PV is much stronger this year than it was that year, or even 1982-83 for that matter. Here's this year first, then 1997-98 after for comparison. Look at Dec. this year vs Dec. 1997. I'm only offering a possible reason, not getting into a AGW debate.

 

 

10mb9065.png

 

 

10mb9065_1998.gif

Therin brings in another question, PV contraction is associated with a slowing walker circulation. A key indicator of global warming. Need to remember that the sun doesn't shine north of 60N, thus the additional heat input must come from the tropics (which often leads to very dynamic systems and heavy snow due to increased PWAT). It's why you have seen snowfall increase in many areas post-AGW.

[EasternLI]

To my untrained eyes they look very similar, but I defer to your knowledge. What implications would this have for our winter going forward ?

 

Well, I'm no expert and I wouldn't mind some more input on this. To the best of my knowledge, a colder (stronger) PV acts to limit cold air intrusions into the mid latitudes, keeping it close to the arctic. As far as moving forward, it remains to be seen what will happen. I'll defer to folks with more knowledge on the subject. I just found it interesting, and a plausible reason.

[weatherpruf]

Well, I'm no expert and I wouldn't mind some more input on this. To the best of my knowledge, a colder (stronger) PV acts to limit cold air intrusions into the mid latitudes, keeping it close to the arctic. As far as moving forward, it remains to be seen what will happen. I'll defer to folks with more knowledge on the subject. I just found it interesting, and a plausible reason.

Interesting. Well, not much we can do so might as well enjoy the mild temps today. Good day for a ride.

[forkyfork]

the background warming is enhancing an already warm pattern

[Stormlover74]

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[Rjay]

^ lol yup

[nzucker]

I know this is banter but that's a ridiculous assumption and incredibly false.

The 1951-1980 unsmoothed December average was 35.9F, and December 1982 finished at 42.8F, making for an anomaly of +6.9F. If you use the 100 year average 1880-1980, it's probably closer to +8F.

Yes, it was a bit of an exaggeration, but the point was that at incredibly warm December does not preclude snow later in winter. Also, I believe there was a 2-week stretch in Dec 1982 that averaged +10, ask UncleW for the dailies.

Many moderate/strong El Ninos have had warmth in December such as 2006-07, 1994-95, 1982-83, and 1957-58. February 2007 had the major Valentine's Day storm that dropped 2' just to the north, and temperatures were as much as 12F below average that month in the OH Valley. February 1995 had a 10" snowfall, the only major event of that dull winter. The February '83 Megalopolis storm had 20" in NYC and is one of the biggest Kocin events behind 1/96 and 3/93. 57-58 had a huge February storm and twin March events; it was the 3rd snowiest winter in Dobbs Ferry history with 80" after a warm December.

Of course, some El Ninos never recovered. 1972-73, 1918-19, and 1877-78 all remained warm and snowless throughout.

[Rjay]

Never thought my kid born in December would be a warmer day than my other kid born in april ('14)

[Forky] Breeder [Forky]

[Rjay]

Never thought my kid born in December would be a warmer day than my other kid born in april ('14)

Congrats

[nzucker]

One reason could be that the PV is much stronger this year than it was that year, or even 1982-83 for that matter. Here's this year first, then 1997-98 after for comparison. Look at Dec. this year vs Dec. 1997.

Studies show that a PV that is cold and strong in late fall/early winter, as is the case this year, tends to warm and weaken by mid-winter. On the other hand, PVs that begin the cold season weak and warm tend to cool off and strengthen in Jan/Feb.

This fact, along with the high October Siberian snow cover and enhanced ozone transport in the BDC due to the strong Nino, gives me hope that we see a SSW and PV split later in the winter. This could set up the potentially snowy February many are talking about, and would be accompanied/enhanced by retrogression of the North Pacific low.

Models do seem to be showing a tendency towards more of an Aleutian low, instead of a GoA low, as well as strengthening of the Siberian high. This convinces me that the PV will weaken in January, leading to a -AO February.

Your chart also shows a major warming of the stratosphere in early-mid March 1998. I wonder if that may have helped bring about the 5.0" snowfall NYC recorded around the equinox.

[Stormlover74]

Studies show that a PV that is cold and strong in late fall/early winter, as is the case this year, tends to warm and weaken by mid-winter. On the other hand, PVs that begin the cold season weak and warm tend to cool off and strengthen in Jan/Feb.

This fact, along with the high October Siberian snow cover and enhanced ozone transport in the BDC due to the strong Nino, gives me hope that we see a SSW and PV split later in the winter. This could set up the potentially snowy February many are talking about, and would be accompanied/enhanced by retrogression of the North Pacific low.

Models do seem to be showing a tendency towards more of an Aleutian low, instead of a GoA low, as well as strengthening of the Siberian high. This convinces me that the PV will weaken in January, leading to a -AO February.

Your chart also shows a major warming of the stratosphere in early-mid March 1998. I wonder if that may have helped bring about the 5.0" snowfall NYC recorded around the equinox.

That was really a situation of just enough cold air being dragged down as a noreaster was departing. It was not even supposed to change to snow and what did fall melted by afternoon and it was 84 5 days later

[Rjay]

God is nothing if not ironic.

Sent from my SM-G360T

Christ

[EasternLI]

Studies show that a PV that is cold and strong in late fall/early winter, as is the case this year, tends to warm and weaken by mid-winter. On the other hand, PVs that begin the cold season weak and warm tend to cool off and strengthen in Jan/Feb.

This fact, along with the high October Siberian snow cover and enhanced ozone transport in the BDC due to the strong Nino, gives me hope that we see a SSW and PV split later in the winter. This could set up the potentially snowy February many are talking about, and would be accompanied/enhanced by retrogression of the North Pacific low.

Models do seem to be showing a tendency towards more of an Aleutian low, instead of a GoA low, as well as strengthening of the Siberian high. This convinces me that the PV will weaken in January, leading to a -AO February.

Your chart also shows a major warming of the stratosphere in early-mid March 1998. I wonder if that may have helped bring about the 5.0" snowfall NYC recorded around the equinox.

 

The ozone transport part is something that I haven't done much reading on. I need to look into that. I have seen some discussion on the tendency for the stronger early season PV to weaken later. As well as the modeling looking more optimistic moving forward. Getting more of an Aleutian low is key. So,yea, I agree with you. That's the reason I'm not worried too much right now. The warm Dec. isn't surprising to me, the magnitude of it might be though. I still think we find our way to near avg snowfall this year however.

[forkyfork]

i'm going to get a small palm tree from home depot and hang lights on it

[MJO812]

Wow euro ensembles towards christmas. I might need to get the sunscreen out.

[Cfa]

Our sunsets have begun trending later.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Our sunsets have begun trending later.

actually no they have not

[Rjay]

actually no they have not

This shows they have. But so have sunrise times.

http://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/new-york

[Sundog]

the background warming is enhancing an already warm pattern

100% agree.

[Stormlover74]

Sunset times have peaked but sunrise times have not which is why we have not reached our shortest day yet

[Juliancolton]

actually no they have not

We recently had a discussion about this in the HV thread... you might be interested to check it out.

[Rjay]

i don't see a hecs pattern

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

Most of us didn't.

[IrishRob17]

Wow euro ensembles towards christmas. I might need to get the sunscreen out.

Are they showing a rapid change in sun angle?

[SnoSki14]

Despite all this crazy warmth and months of record setting temps, I really believe we flip the switch for late Jan and Feb.

When you reach the apex of unfavorability, there is often an inverse that eventually happens. It's mother natures way of balancing things out.

I'm going with a 06/07 style shift but warmer. The ridging should rapidly collapse and shift once the Nino does the same.

However January could still rank in the top 10 warmest predominately because of the first half of the month.

[weatherpruf]

Despite all this crazy warmth and months of record setting temps, I really believe we flip the switch for late Jan and Feb.

When you reach the apex of unfavorability, there is often an inverse that eventually happens. It's mother natures way of balancing things out.

I'm going with a 06/07 style shift but warmer. The ridging should rapidly collapse and shift once the Nino does the same.

However January could still rank in the top 10 warmest predominately because of the first half of the month.

Even 06-07 was a dud in these parts; two sleet events. Pretty much it. And really saw no good snows in my area until dec 09, other than some piddly ones in 08 and 09.

[mattinpa]

I  think we will probably see some near misses that favor inland areas but leave us with a little thump or all sleet, probably in Feb or so, but I am not expecting a lot of snow. Good news is there will be lots of left over winter gear for cheap in the spring. I've bought snow blowers, pac boots and high quality parkas for dirt cheap as spring rolled around after a mild winter. Get two mild winters and they will be giving stuff away...the last two winters left LL Bean scrambling to make their signature boots ( hence all the knockoffs in the malls this year ) but those boots last years and if it stays mild, you will get a deal on this kind of stuff and you can put it away for when the winters get bad again, because they will, even with global warming you are going to still see winter storms at some point.

Yeah true but it only takes a couple storms to score big. I do not think we can rule them out.