MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I think we are going to be disappointed this winter my friend, but we have all seen boring winters before. I am one of those people who only shows up here in winter, and don't shy from the fact that I really don't know a lot about what some of the posters here are talking about. We all share a passion for the weather, but as I've noted before, mine is not one based in the natural sciences, but the social. The impact of weather on people and society is my interest, and I have developed a side interest in snow weenies as well, not just because I am one, but because they enjoy something that the vast majority of adults disdain. I have taken note of people's opinions and most I talk to feel this weather is a blessing. They don't care if its freakish. Hope we'll have something more to discuss in the upcoming months, but my guess is it stays snowless or nearly so this winter. We'll see. The pattern should change for the better next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The pattern should change for the better next month. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Yes, it's fine, but my answer to people who love freakishly warm weather during colder months is that no one would be celebrating 30 degree temps in July; they would think the world is coming to an end....I think such warm temps are disconcerting, and I have seen several of them, with some freakish temps in January as well over the years...I remember maybe 2006 people walking around in shorts at the Philly zoo in Jan. The climate deniers say it has all happened before, but scientists point to those damning, stubborn facts and charts and you just know it ain't normal..... There's been plenty of warm streaks over the years but you have hard evidence that we have reached levels never seen in the historical record. This past fall was the warmest on record for the CONUS and we've seen several collective months this year registering close to or the warmest month. I think this is very concerning and not just another mild period. It's one thing to have a month register say a +2 to +4 for the month, which is already pretty warm but a +8, +9, +10 is absurd and we've been seeing these higher departures (above +4) on such a common basis that the public doesn't even realize how warm it's really been. They will this month though. And yes this comes after one of the most shocking February's we've ever seen in a warming climate, but extremes are the new normal apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The pattern should change for the better next month. What makes you soo certain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 There's been plenty of warm streaks over the years but you have hard evidence that we have reached levels never seen in the historical record. This past fall was the warmest on record for the CONUS and we've seen several collective months this year registering close to or the warmest month. I think this is very concerning and not just another mild period. It's one thing to have a month register say a +2 to +4 for the month, which is already pretty warm but a +8, +9, +10 is absurd and we've been seeing these higher departures (above +4) on such a common basis that the public doesn't even realize how warm it's really been. They will this month though. And yes this comes after one of the most shocking February's we've ever seen in a warming climate, but extremes are the new normal apparently. The situation is very serious, with only a certain large segment of the population of the USA who thinks climate change is some kind of hoax. Everyone else is in agreement that we are in dire straights. So no, I am not celebrating the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The situation is very serious, with only a certain large segment of the population of the USA who thinks climate change is some kind of hoax. Everyone else is in agreement that we are in dire straights. So no, I am not celebrating the warmth. There is time remaining to mitigate the worst effects, we ought to remain focused and organized in thought and emotion. All hands on deck moment if you want to reach the other side in one piece. During the mid Miocene, New York's climate was similar to Miami and deciduous forests grew at the poles. This is where we are going if there is no serious response to the issues at hand. The strong el nino on-top of the anthropogenic signal has provided a vivid preview of a normal winter in 2030-2040. The above normal winters of that era would be unrecognizable, or even unfathomable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The pattern should change for the better next month. It will get colder for sure, we might even slip in a decent storm, but the odds are it will mostly stay on the warmer side, probably in the 40's and low 50's. I doubt we see sustained cold in a winter like this. Last year was the first time I remember a snowless Dec followed by a snowy second half. Anyway, I'm getting too old to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 There is time remaining to mitigate the worst effects, we ought to remain focused and organized in thought and emotion. All hands on deck moment if you want to reach the other side in one piece. During the mid Miocene, New York's climate was similar to Miami and deciduous forests grew at the poles. This is where we are going if there is no serious response to the issues at hand. The strong el nino on-top of the anthropogenic signal has provided a vivid preview of a normal winter in 2030-2040. The above normal winters of that era would be unrecognizable, or even unfathomable. I think you are entirely correct, but I don't have faith enough will be done. Certainly not here in the US, where, let's face it, many members of the majority in Congress either don't believe in climate change or financially bound to those who stand to lose if we were to change toward different forms of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Central Park is five degrees warmer than its surrounding stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 How does one, anticipated mild December in the midst of a strong ENSO event (warmest year,ever! According to 2m temps) clearly indicate AGW? But record levels of ice coverage on the Great Lakes last year didn't indicate global cooling? Even in the banter thread the hyperbole is astounding. I was under the impression AGW had its own thread on this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 ...since there is no winter here..i thought i can watch winter during an NFL game..nice.. dallas @ green bay game is on @4pm...cold & snowy,right?..NFW..forecast.."showers/fog 55*" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Anyone have a good YouTube clip of cold and snow to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Any have a good YouTube clip of cold and snow to watch? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJZOWaQSPUs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Back door front talk in the middle of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Anyone have a good YouTube clip of cold and snow to watch? Buffalo Weather took this sick TSSN video last year during that crazy Nov lake effect event. It's a must see for any snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The strong el nino on-top of the anthropogenic signal has provided a vivid preview of a normal winter in 2030-2040. The above normal winters of that era would be unrecognizable, or even unfathomable. Nope, wrong again. By 2040, we will have warmed around .4C globally, a bit more than 1F in the mid-latitudes in winter where warming is greater. So the average winter month will be about 1F above the current normals. December would then average 38.5F instead of 37.5F; it would not average 45F+ as we've been seeing this month. The current extreme warmth has little to do with anthropogenic global warming. The main reason for the mild weather is a strong +NAO/+EPO combined with a powerful El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 What makes you soo certain? Just going by what all of the meteorologists and other people are saying. Weenies never lose hope. I never lost hope last winter. Also, El ninos are usually backloaded so not worried at all. Need the vortex to either split or shift. Plenty of time for that. Look on the bright side, it's not even winter yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 We woke to the sound of birds chirping through the open windows this morning...ah December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 We woke to the sound of birds chirping through the open windows this morning...ah December.. I was sweating just jogging outside yesterday. Terrible weather for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It is the mildest I can remember in 53 years. BUt I can tell you that in my experience in these parts, when December stays mild, you can put the down parka and the shovel away for the winter. Sometimes, like in 95, we get a decent storm in Feb, where some people got 11 inches but I'm sure it was less here. Of course with climate change you can never tell what might happen, and you could just as likely get a blizzard in March. But I kinda doubt it.Last December was very mild and NYC had 50" of snow with a -11F February.It's common for December to be mild in a strong Nino even if the rest of the winter is warm; 57-58 is a great example. 82-83 had a +10F December with a 20" storm in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It will get colder for sure, we might even slip in a decent storm, but the odds are it will mostly stay on the warmer side, probably in the 40's and low 50's. I doubt we see sustained cold in a winter like this. Last year was the first time I remember a snowless Dec followed by a snowy second half. Anyway, I'm getting too old to shovel. This winter should be mild than past winters but that doesn't mean that we will not reach our average snowfall for the area. I don't like a very cold winter since I have to work outside now. Also, snow blower ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Last December was very mild and NYC had 50" of snow with a -11F February. It's common for December to be mild in a strong Nino even if the rest of the winter is warm; 57-58 is a great example. 82-83 had a +10F December with a 20" storm in February. Where do you get your baloney +10F December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Check out CFSv2 weeklies. For the first time in probably months a weekly chart actually showed some bluish hues over our area. This is tenuous however----for it is for weeks 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Last December was very mild and NYC had 50" of snow with a -11F February. It's common for December to be mild in a strong Nino even if the rest of the winter is warm; 57-58 is a great example. 82-83 had a +10F December with a 20" storm in February. December of 82 was 42.8, 6th warmest (7th now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 How does one, anticipated mild December in the midst of a strong ENSO event (warmest year,ever! According to 2m temps) clearly indicate AGW? But record levels of ice coverage on the Great Lakes last year didn't indicate global cooling? Even in the banter thread the hyperbole is astounding. I was under the impression AGW had its own thread on this site? By itself maybe it doesn't. I just choose to accept that those who are experts in the field agree almost unanimously that we have a serious problem. I do not know enough about the science to critique them, anymore than I know enough to question a physician who says that smoking is bad for me. He has the training, I do not. To paraphrase Neil D Tyson, the science is true whether people choose to believe it or not. To me there is nothing really argue about. Climate change is, at least at present, settled science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Nope, wrong again. By 2040, we will have warmed around .4C globally, a bit more than 1F in the mid-latitudes in winter where warming is greater. So the average winter month will be about 1F above the current normals. December would then average 38.5F instead of 37.5F; it would not average 45F+ as we've been seeing this month. The current extreme warmth has little to do with anthropogenic global warming. The main reason for the mild weather is a strong +NAO/+EPO combined with a powerful El Nino. If not now, then when? There will be a non-linear increase in temperature. How did you arrive at .4C? You should probably re-evaluate your stance and utilize critical thinking. This el nino is no stronger than 97/98 (even a shade weaker?), yet you see stronger surface warmth worldwide? Why is this? It's simple, Ocean heat content is exploding worldwide and the GHG forcing is increasing atmospheric water vapor content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 This winter should be mild than past winters but that doesn't mean that we will not reach our average snowfall for the area. I don't like a very cold winter since I have to work outside now. Also, snow blower ftw. But don't you think we are just due for a stinker? Not scientific but I can't remember having three snow winters in a row. And as some people point out here, we have had these kinds od Decembers before, but this one seems warmer or rather the warmth seems of more duration since the fall, and we all remember what a stinker 97-8 was. Actually, we had a number of mellow winters all through most of the 80's and even the 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 But don't you think we are just due for a stinker? Not scientific but I can't remember having three snow winters in a row. And as some people point out here, we have had these kinds od Decembers before, but this one seems warmer or rather the warmth seems of more duration since the fall, and we all remember what a stinker 97-8 was. Actually, we had a number of mellow winters all through most of the 80's and even the 90's. A super warm, mostly snowless winter? Maybe not. Those don't happen a whole lot. I think it will be warmer than ones we have had lately, but we could still get cold and snow with the right timing of the storminess. Models have plenty of moisture around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Last December was very mild and NYC had 50" of snow with a -11F February. It's common for December to be mild in a strong Nino even if the rest of the winter is warm; 57-58 is a great example. 82-83 had a +10F December with a 20" storm in February. I know this is banter but that's a ridiculous assumption and incredibly false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 How are the chances of thunderstorms looking for Monday? Would ground cover Hail count as a white Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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