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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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True, but anyone that things this is a lock is in for disappointment. We have had soooooo many big storms the last few years we take big ones granted.

I agree. I think we should wait until Wednesday to see if the models continue to show the same solution. It's exciting to see all the models in remarkable agreement like this.

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Just looked at the 06z GFS evolution for the 26-28th time frame. Obviously, we have this week and this weekend to get through and things will change. However, just commenting on the depiction of the potential storm; what a beauty. Spiking heights in the west, monster high to the north of us, and a behemoth coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. For posterity sake, a great fantasy storm. Now back to this week...

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They are lurking and waiting for the first runs to pop up showing a miss. Either that or they are out buying themselves a new snow blower.

Something significant would have to be introduced for this to miss. I do want to see the euro first but if it's similar to 0z then I only expect slight adjustments to be made.

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I'm going to keep my excitement tempered until those runs on Wednesday.

Very smart, Snowgoose already mentioned this but I can see this storm easily getting suppressed south of us. The model ensemble clusters have been south of the operational runs and the trend since yesterday has been a stronger northern branch and a weaker, deamplified southern branch. It would not take much for this to become a suppressed mid Atlantic event with the northern branch kicking it out south of us. This is not the time to spike the football. As we saw last year, things can change from a "lock" to a non event in a heartbeat
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Something significant would have to be introduced for this to miss. I do want to see the euro first but if it's similar to 0z then I only expect slight adjustments to be made.

I agree that the consistency is encouraging but I just can't trust the models this far out. I think of March 2014 how that one storm looked like a lock and ended up trending so far south most places saw nothing. Very different setup of course and there's nothing that screams suppression this time around

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Where are the it's not going to snow posters?

theyre so annoying and childish! I'll name the most annoying on. Snowman19 is bad, forky is okay and very talented he knows, but he's gonna bite tonight if the 0z runs are good. Doorman has been quite consistent since the Juno miss he got a bit annoying but I like him anyway
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I agree that the consistency is encouraging but I just can't trust the models this far out. I think of March 2014 how that one storm looked like a lock and ended up trending so far south most places saw nothing. Very different setup of course and there's nothing that screams suppression this time around

I remember that well, models had a very long duration overrunning event inside of 100 hours, confluence ended up being way too strong and the storm went well south of us (DC got hit pretty good, twice in one week I believe)
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I remember that well, models had a very long duration overrunning event inside of 100 hours, confluence ended up being way too strong and the storm went well south of us (DC got hit pretty good, twice in one week I believe)

I didn't care as much because it was at the end of an already great winter but it was discouraging to have that happen inside 72 hours. My feeling is if it's going to happen the euro will start the se trend today or tomorrow

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