MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like light snow on Wednesday for a lot of people with the initial wave. Snowiest week so far this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 ...i'm wondering if doorman will visit and shut the door on this potential ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like light snow on Wednesday for a lot of people with the initial wave. Snowiest week so far this winter lol Alas, that is not saying much. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 ...i'm wondering if doorman will visit and shut the door on this potential ?? If the models trend out to sea today expect them to be on here faster than the speed of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If the models trend out to sea today expect them to be on here faster than the speed of lightning.True, but anyone that things this is a lock is in for disappointment. We have had soooooo many big storms the last few years we take big ones granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 True, but anyone that things this is a lock is in for disappointment. We have had soooooo many big storms the last few years we take big ones granted. I agree. I think we should wait until Wednesday to see if the models continue to show the same solution. It's exciting to see all the models in remarkable agreement like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just looked at the 06z GFS evolution for the 26-28th time frame. Obviously, we have this week and this weekend to get through and things will change. However, just commenting on the depiction of the potential storm; what a beauty. Spiking heights in the west, monster high to the north of us, and a behemoth coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. For posterity sake, a great fantasy storm. Now back to this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 12Z GFS is just your average HECS, but the CFS look warm for late March so whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Its rare to have such model consistency though is it not true that Miller A's are more easily picked up on models earlier on? ( I assume this is a Miller A). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where are the it's not going to snow posters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 IsentropicLift, on 18 Jan 2016 - 11:22 AM, said: Will be entering the US around 00z Wednesday so should have a better sampling for those runs and the 12z Wednesday runs for sure. I'm going to keep my excitement tempered until those runs on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where are the it's not going to snow posters? Waiting to pounce if things take a turn for the worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where are the it's not going to snow posters? No victory laps until we're shoveling, that's my motto. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where are the it's not going to snow posters? They are lurking and waiting for the first runs to pop up showing a miss. Either that or they are out buying themselves a new snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Its rare to have such model consistency though is it not true that Miller A's are more easily picked up on models earlier on? ( I assume this is a Miller A). I dont belive it is since there is a transfer of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 They are lurking and waiting for the first runs to pop up showing a miss. Either that or they are out buying themselves a new snow blower. Likely the former. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 They are lurking and waiting for the first runs to pop up showing a miss. Either that or they are out buying themselves a new snow blower. Something significant would have to be introduced for this to miss. I do want to see the euro first but if it's similar to 0z then I only expect slight adjustments to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At least we're almost inside 100 hours, and the storm will be well underway by that point just to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm going to keep my excitement tempered until those runs on Wednesday.Very smart, Snowgoose already mentioned this but I can see this storm easily getting suppressed south of us. The model ensemble clusters have been south of the operational runs and the trend since yesterday has been a stronger northern branch and a weaker, deamplified southern branch. It would not take much for this to become a suppressed mid Atlantic event with the northern branch kicking it out south of us. This is not the time to spike the football. As we saw last year, things can change from a "lock" to a non event in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Something significant would have to be introduced for this to miss. I do want to see the euro first but if it's similar to 0z then I only expect slight adjustments to be made. I agree that the consistency is encouraging but I just can't trust the models this far out. I think of March 2014 how that one storm looked like a lock and ended up trending so far south most places saw nothing. Very different setup of course and there's nothing that screams suppression this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where are the it's not going to snow posters?theyre so annoying and childish! I'll name the most annoying on. Snowman19 is bad, forky is okay and very talented he knows, but he's gonna bite tonight if the 0z runs are good. Doorman has been quite consistent since the Juno miss he got a bit annoying but I like him anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I agree that the consistency is encouraging but I just can't trust the models this far out. I think of March 2014 how that one storm looked like a lock and ended up trending so far south most places saw nothing. Very different setup of course and there's nothing that screams suppression this time aroundI remember that well, models had a very long duration overrunning event inside of 100 hours, confluence ended up being way too strong and the storm went well south of us (DC got hit pretty good, twice in one week I believe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I remember that well, models had a very long duration overrunning event inside of 100 hours, confluence ended up being way too strong and the storm went well south of us (DC got hit pretty good, twice in one week I believe) I didn't care as much because it was at the end of an already great winter but it was discouraging to have that happen inside 72 hours. My feeling is if it's going to happen the euro will start the se trend today or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Someone start a new banter thread, gonna close this one before the Euro and GEFS come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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