Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 BIG shift towards the Euro with 2 foot snowfall amounts around DC and Baltimore and 1 foot amounts throughout much of our area. It just continues to keep things a bit south of the Euro and Canadian runs, but it will likely shift north towards the Euro as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 BIG shift towards the Euro with 2 foot snowfall amounts around DC and Baltimore and 1 foot amounts throughout much of our area. It just continues to keep things a bit south of the Euro and Canadian runs, but it will likely shift north towards the Euro as time goes on. Any reason(s) to why the gfs will shift north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't see a Feb 2010 redux, which is a good thing because there won't be a massive cutoff around our area. The blocking is nowhere like it was back then. The way this closes off though is going to be "awe" worthy for somebody if this verifies. Any semblance to 1/96 regarding how it closes off on the models mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't see a Feb 2010 redux, which is a good thing because there won't be a massive cutoff around our area. The blocking is nowhere like it was back then. The way this closes off though is going to be "awe" worthy for somebody if this verifies. Any semblance to 1/96 regarding how it closes off on the models mets? There is residual North Atlantic blocking. The AO is negative and there is a block high over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Any reason(s) to why the gfs will shift north? Because everything trends towards the euro. Even the models that had a storm before the euro, and even with calling one run a trend. Duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Talk about rare. Sounds effect snow possible.. SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. THERE MAY AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REACHING THESE AREAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS ALLOW FOR SOUND EFFECT SNOW. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING FOR WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...AND SINGLE DIGITS...ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO...MONDAY NIGHT. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't see a Feb 2010 redux, which is a good thing because there won't be a massive cutoff around our area. The blocking is nowhere like it was back then. The way this closes off though is going to be "awe" worthy for somebody if this verifies. Any semblance to 1/96 regarding how it closes off on the models mets? It would be more 12/09 if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Talk about a super sharp cutoff gradient. WOW! Like you want to be the sweet spot 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Because everything trends towards the euro. Even the models that had a storm before the euro, and even with calling one run a trend. Duh. Haha. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Like you want to be the sweet spot 4-5 days. That's more made up bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That's more made up bs No matter how abysmal the models look until Wednesday, it'll be right where we want it. After that, storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't see a Feb 2010 redux, which is a good thing because there won't be a massive cutoff around our area. The blocking is nowhere like it was back then. The way this closes off though is going to be "awe" worthy for somebody if this verifies. Any semblance to 1/96 regarding how it closes off on the models mets? The redux part was a joke as the DGEX showed it, but it's a obviously a joke of a model. In regards to it being closed off at H5, that is huge because if it does close off and the storm gets captured we could potentially be looking at one of the better setups in a while, to get such a long duration storm given the flow this season would be pretty incredible. Yes yes, I know this is still 5 days or so out, but the consensus and overall potential assures me a sleepless week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No matter how abysmal the models look until Wednesday, it'll be right where we want it. After that, storm cancel. You know it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 As per the GFS... It's 1 model, not in-inline with other guidance, I would def not say where "the place to be" is until about Thursday night Not until it's actually snowing. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not until it's actually snowing. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Snowman 19 waits till a week after the storm, he then prints out the official reports and has them notarized, and even then he only gets marginally excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So, would you rather jackpot with 8-10" of snow from a weaker system, or receive 8-10" of snow from a very strong system while DC to PHL get 20-30"?? I'd rather take the stronger storm. While it can be frustrating watching others get the brunt of it, tracking the storms on the weather models right up to the event is half of the fun. Many different solutions are still on the table at this point, but it looks great for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So, would you rather jackpot with 8-10" of snow from a weaker system, or receive 8-10" of snow from a very strong system while DC to PHL get 20-30"?? I'd rather take the stronger storm. While it can be frustrating watching others get the brunt of it, tracking the storms on the weather models right up to the event is half of the fun. Many different solutions are still on the table at this point, but it looks great for usI'd rather have an absolute bomb (with solid winds) because it's fascinating to watch the big ones unfold, you'll never see me complaining about a 10 inch snowstorm, regardless of whether or not someone else got 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I am really hoping the same thing. We are roughly 5.5 days away from the potential storm so we will definitely be getting into crunch time with the 12z runs tomorrow where we should be around 4-4.5 days away at that point. Yeah, it would be nice if the number #1 Day 8 analog was even a fraction correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah, it would be nice if the number #1 Day 8 analog was even a fraction correct. 610analog.off.gif How some are saying we don't have blocking is mind boggling to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Mid Atlantic storms have a tendency to not find their way to us...we need a bomb that hits everyone. Anyway, who knows what will actually happen, seen too many busts even inside 24 hours over the years, and they could not get the Boxing Day Storm right until the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How some are saying we don't have blocking is mind boggling to me. Soooo....if we have blocking it's suppressed, and if we don't it's progressive...so tell me when the setup is right for us in the NYC metro area, cause I give up....and he we are talking about a storm which has a good chance of not even happening, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd rather have an absolute bomb (with solid winds) because it's fascinating to watch the big ones unfold, you'll never see me complaining about a 10 inch snowstorm, regardless of whether or not someone else got 3 feet. Well if you love the evolution of big storms then I guess it doesn't matter, but for me if someone 4 hrs away gets a huge blizzard and I get a run of the mill 8-10, well I guess I like the mood snow but it wouldn't be a memorable storm for me, anymore than 12/09. 2/06/, 1/15 was, or 2/13, which was only good because it was really not expected to do much here iIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you notice your posts disappearing, it means you posted in the wrong thread. The banter thread is your friend and will save you from warnings and suspensions. This is the last time I will say this. Enjoy tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah just notice that I have so many threads open lost track of which one I was posting in apologize in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How some are saying we don't have blocking is mind boggling to me. At the moment we do still have residual NATL blocking. However, there's a clear weakening in the blocking signal over the pole for the weekend and the same can be said for the NAO region as well. Transitional periods aren't necessarily a bad thing here. In my experience over the years, the Mid-Atl and NYC Metro can and have gotten very big snow storms in these transitional periods, especially with an STJ influence on the pattern. However, I can see why some in here are at least mentioning that the pattern for this coming weekend will not be nearly as blocked up...that's because it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you notice your posts disappearing, it means you posted in the wrong thread. The banter thread is your friend and will save you from warnings and suspensions. This is the last time I will say this. Enjoy tracking. Well I stick to banter unless posting an observation since I am not literate with this stuff, but I have learned a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well I stick to banter unless posting an observation since I am not literate with this stuff, but I have learned a lot.Thanks. Glad you've learned a lot here. There's nothing wrong with the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 At the moment we do still have residual NATL blocking. However, there's a clear weakening in the blocking signal over the pole for the weekend and the same can be said for the NAO region as well. Transitional periods aren't necessarily a bad thing here. In my experience over the years, the Mid-Atl and NYC Metro can and have gotten very big snow storms in these transitional periods, especially with an STJ influence on the pattern. However, I can see why some in here are at least mentioning that the pattern for this coming weekend will not be nearly as blocked up...that's because it won't be. At the moment we do still have residual NATL blocking. However, there's a clear weakening in the blocking signal over the pole for the weekend and the same can be said for the NAO region as well. Transitional periods aren't necessarily a bad thing here. In my experience over the years, the Mid-Atl and NYC Metro can and have gotten very big snow storms in these transitional periods, especially with an STJ influence on the pattern. However, I can see why some in here are at least mentioning that the pattern for this coming weekend will not be nearly as blocked up...that's because it won't be. Might that not work to our advantage? Less chance of suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just for fun, and to check out these winter COD soundings with a potential storm, I checked out the 18z GFS at hr 144 over my head. Just thought it was cool to see "blizzard" in the Potential hazard type box. Wanted to share. Purely for entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just for fun, and to check out these winter COD soundings with a potential storm, I checked out the 18z GFS at hr 144 over my head. Just thought it was cool to see "blizzard" in the Potential hazard type box. Wanted to share. Purely for entertainment. 18_GFS_144.png Fascinating and beautiful, thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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