Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow accumulation maps are the least useful products you could possibly look at with this lead time. Or ever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Until Forky is on board I'll remain cautiously optimistic. this sounds obvious but this could fall apart within day 4. there's no wiggle room with no blocking to help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow accumulation maps are the least useful products you could possibly look at with this lead time. i use the 10:1 ratio maps from this page to get a rough idea. and only a rough idea http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i use the 10:1 ratio maps from this page to get a rough idea. and only a rough idea http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Ha thats where the earl barker site went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I didn't post it. I responded too don s question I know. I was curious as to why the assumption of 15:1 ratios was made. From this far out, soundings and snow growth forecasts are subject to a large degree of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just had a conversation at work with one of our mets SallyAnn about the impact of fake social media pages. Pretty much it forces media to talk about the fact that it could snow from models hinting at it but we won't be putting out any numbers until 48 hours within the event most likely. The fake weather pages really do no good whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well,if we end up getting a monster, at least NY STATE DOT will get to finally use there new tow behind plow that was purchased last year use on the east end. Likely for the LIE and SUNRISE HIGHWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 sorry I didnt get your reasoning here at alleartl Barker doesnt have euro snow maps and the op GFS and CMC solutions are absurd i use the 10:1 ratio maps from this page to get a rough idea. and only a rough idea http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 this euro eps 500 mb map is massive and impressive and very VERY different from the GFS and to a lessor degree the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 this sounds obvious but this could fall apart within day 4. there's no wiggle room with no blocking to help us There's a blocking high in Quebec and the -AO is still negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i use the 10:1 ratio maps from this page to get a rough idea. and only a rough idea http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm I liked your last mentally deranged human being pic better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just an observer and not a met but even I know its a good sign to have this kind of model consistency (ex GFS to the south) 5-6 days out. Hopefully this one works out to erase some of our bad memories for this winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 that is only one side of the story You have a lot of TV weather folks who are NOT mets and dont know how to forecast a east coast snowstormand a few that dont even know WHERE to find the ECMWF the purpose of issuing a forecast is to let people know ahead of time what the fook is going to happenthe forecast for NYC have out be out by FRIDAY so its 5 days away Just had a conversation at work with one of our mets SallyAnn about the impact of fake social media pages. Pretty much it forces media to talk about the fact that it could snow from models hinting at it but we won't be putting out any numbers until 48 hours within the event most likely. The fake weather pages really do no good whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 this euro eps 500 mb map is massive and impressive and very VERY different from the GFS and to a lessor degree the GEFS 12zeps144.jpg Does that increase your confidence on a closer to the euro solution than GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks for clarifying that bluewave. I am hoping the Euro does better now since it's generally very good when there is a strong STJ interaction. Sometimes it struggles with a dominant northern branch clipper like we had last January. But it will be interesting to see what it comes up with at 12Z tomorrow and the next several days as we get under 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow accumulation maps are the least useful products you could possibly look at with this lead time. retweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 retweet Careful retweeting, snowman19 might paste it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Careful retweeting, snowman19 might paste it here. Keep my tweets protected my man. I'm in the energy industry and I'm not trying to educate the competition too much! Need Bastardi and company to keep the people hyped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Keep my tweets protected my man. I'm in the energy industry and I'm not trying to educate the competition too much! Lol nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I am hoping the Euro does better now since it's generally very good when there is a strong STJ interaction. Sometimes it struggles with a dominant northern branch clipper like we had last January. But it will be interesting to see what it comes up with at 12Z tomorrow and the next several days as we get under 120 hrs. I am really hoping the same thing. We are roughly 5.5 days away from the potential storm so we will definitely be getting into crunch time with the 12z runs tomorrow where we should be around 4-4.5 days away at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snowman will only post today if there are negative 18z or 0z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Typical 18z GFS qpf bomb coming up... lol Or out to sea or wrapped up rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Does this remind you guys of anything....lol And the Dgex is slacking. Only 7 lows this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Does this remind you guys of anything....lol And the Dgex is slacking. Only 7 lows this time. Is it a certain storm which NYC recorded a trace while Winterwarlock couldn't post anything negative because his power lines were covered in 2 feet of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Does this remind you guys of anything....lol And the Dgex is slacking. Only 7 lows this time. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Is it a certain storm which NYC recorded a trace while Winterwarlock couldn't post anything negative because his power lines were covered in 2 feet of snow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Does this remind you guys of anything....lol And the Dgex is slacking. Only 7 lows this time. Talk about a super sharp cutoff gradient. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Very big storm for the mid-atlantic per gfs. That's the place to be for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Very big storm for the mid-atlantic per gfs. That's the place to be for this one. As per the GFS... It's 1 model, not in-inline with other guidance, I would def not say where "the place to be" is until about Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Very big storm for the mid-atlantic per gfs. That's the place to be for this one.A little early for that, the GFS has a rather compact storm for the H5 evolution of the storm, it'll likely be more expansive. If I could lock in pretty much any model from today for my location (maybe not the Feb 2010 Redux ) I would do so in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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