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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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I'm giving up on this month for any winter weather.

As of right now , next weekends storm is done. No model support at all. The flow is too progressive for anything to come up the coast. Long range still looks terrible for the rest of this month. December in strong el nino years are terrible. January and February are usually the best. We should be good after this month. Patience.

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I'm giving up on this month for any winter weather.

As of right now , next weekends storm is done. No model support at all. The flow is too progressive for anything to come up the coast. Long range still looks terrible for the rest of this month. December in strong el nino years are terrible. January and February are usually the best. We should be good after this month. Patience.

Glad you've finally seen the light.
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Long range analogs indicate a Super Cold Wave will sweep the middle of the country from Jan25 into early Feb.  with temps. that are 45 degrees below their normals, yet for us hardly anything more than normal is indicated during the period.

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Long range analogs indicate a Super Cold Wave will sweep the middle of the country from Jan25 into early Feb.  with temps. that are 45 degrees below their normals, yet for us hardly anything more than normal is indicated during the period.

I wish the models are accurate a week in advance let a lone 45 days in advance lol

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Well this is just an analog.   It need be right in kind only, not amount.   Can anyone show analog output from the last 3-6 months that indicated an extended period of below normal temps. for us during Nov/Dec.    What happened to JB's Dec.11-12 pattern change?  He was right in the wrong direction.

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Well this is just an analog.   It need be right in kind only, not amount.   Can anyone show analog output from the last 3-6 months that indicated an extended period of below normal temps. for us during Nov/Dec.    What happened to JB's Dec.11-12 pattern change?  He was right in the wrong direction.

Well everyone thought a pattern change was coming that year. There were a million busts that winter.

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I don't think anyone would have bet last December at this time that 2015 would feature the

third coldest February followed by the top level record warmth from May through December.

attachicon.giftn72503_1yr.gif

I definitely wouldn't have. After such a cold month, I couldn't have imagined such a stretch of record warmth would show up. That second image really is the best visual for me personally. It shows that little section of below normal compared to how much above normal we've had. Seems like last December was pretty warm too, although even then we had some snow lol.

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The Polar Bear club will have to use sunscreen before taking there annual dip this year.

back in the early 1960's the president of the polar bears lived across the street from me...1965-66 had a Christmas with a max of 59 with rain later in the day...New years Eve and day set record highs...I told him he was getting off easy...

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These storms that show up on the GFS, they look nice in the medium-long range. Then begin to dry up as we get closer. Hopefully not a theme for the rest of the winter.. Dry begets dry as Brian states.

GFS is essentially useless in tracking LR-Medium range storms, but at this point there is literally nothing else to track.... In a strong El Niño pattern, (except warmth, and Monday-Tuesday rains).

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I definitely wouldn't have. After such a cold month, I couldn't have imagined such a stretch of record warmth would show up. That second image really is the best visual for me personally. It shows that little section of below normal compared to how much above normal we've had. Seems like last December was pretty warm too, although even then we had some snow lol.

That is the nature of the beast and meridional flow, largely caused by anthropogenic warming. You are either torching super hard or you are freezing cold. At least for the pattern that existed in 2014 into early 2015. El Nino moderation will tend to drain the cold airmasses.

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It's been amazing outside since April but if boring same ole same ole nice weather is your style then you just enjoyed 9 months of it with more to come.

If you're a weather fanatic or weenie then it's been a torturous run.

The weather has been boring as hell. I'm just saying it's amazing outside today.

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The weather has been boring as hell. I'm just saying it's amazing outside today.

No ones denying that it feels amazing outside but the extreme nature of this month warmth says a lot.

Actually if you really think about it, the weather hasn't been boring at all. I mean yea in terms of storminess its snooze worthy but we just went from a stunningly cold February to an unprecedented warm stretch in less than a year.

If you love meteorology, then in hindsight it's not as boring as it appears on the surface.

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No ones denying that it feels amazing outside but the extreme nature of this month warmth says a lot.

Actually if you really think about it, the weather hasn't been boring at all. I mean yea in terms of storminess its snooze worthy but we just went from a stunningly cold February to an unprecedented warm stretch in less than a year.

If you love meteorology, then in hindsight it's not as boring as it appears on the surface.

Its boring because 65 degrees is not interesting. It is for this time of year but its nothing earth shattering. Because of the stretch of warmth and the stretch of cold back in February it seems that way.

 

a noreaster with 6" of rain or 24" of snow is interesting regardless of when it occurs

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That is the nature of the beast and meridional flow, largely caused by anthropogenic warming. You are either torching super hard or you are freezing cold. At least for the pattern that existed in 2014 into early 2015. El Nino moderation will tend to drain the cold airmasses.

 

Right, still interesting to me that it went from record cold to record warmth pretty quickly though.

 

I could understand why some think this weather is boring, because nothing is really happening.  Almost like going to the Drag Strip and watching passenger cars, as opposed to Old Muscle or Gassers.  Nonetheless, I wouldn't mind if it continues.

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The weather has been boring as hell. I'm just saying it's amazing outside today.

it feels nice to be out in t shirt today but I'm beginning to regret my bet with dorky. I don't ever remember it this boring as far as weather. I was telling my wife I got more mood swings than her lately cause of this weather. I need snow to be happy.... Seriously. I dread all year around to finally get some snow and than we get this stupid El Niño that just won't produce. I was afraid of 97-98 winter but this is worse at least than northwest areas had snow/mixed. Maybe uncle could pull up some info on snow totals for let's say Poughkeepsie for 97-98 winter or Albany I'm sure they got at least close to average. I'm really sad right now including losing my bet looks like a sure thing thanks forky
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