tornadojay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I just don't buy this "slow moving" storm idea . The flow off the pacific is fast I don't see what would help this storm slow down like the GGEM and Euro are showing. A system that closes completely at 500mb could do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I just don't buy this "slow moving" storm idea . The flow off the pacific is fast I don't see what would help this storm slow down like the GGEM and Euro are showing. I guess model physics don't take pacific flow into account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I just don't buy this "slow moving" storm idea . The flow off the pacific is fast I don't see what would help this storm slow down like the GGEM and Euro are showing. You close off the 500 mb low over the Tennessee Valley and you get the cmc/ecm solution. Not too complicated Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Gfs backing off could be what eventually happens with this. Everyone needs to hang back. Wait ... GFS ... Lmao....right....yawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 CMC is crazy-essentially stalls the storm off the Delmarva for a day or so and dumps 15-20 Doubt that happens in such a fast flow-this model has been over amped and generally awful with storms 6-8 days out - GFS has a more southern solution, only gives most here 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I wouldn't sleep on that wave at day 3-4 either, it's been dampening out less and less each run as it crosses the Ohio valley You want that to die or dampen out . That front side SW offers resistance to the bigger SW behind and it's one reason why you see pos tilted for so long. Steve is correct. Its not seen on the GEM or Euro . You would like to see GFS neg tilt in the Tenn valley , if it does it will phase with the N branch. All timing issues . Let's see when these vorts get grabbed by better obs and see what that does to the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 CMC is crazy-essentially stalls the storm off the Delmarva for a day or so and dumps 15-20 Doubt that happens in such a fast flow-this model has been over amped and generally awful with storms 6-8 days out - GFS has a more southern solution, only gives most here 3-5 Alot of people are missing the fact that yes, overall the pattern is progressive, but there are hiccups and nuances in the flow which allow for buckling/amplification at times during this El Nino. Watch that storm South of Alaska. That is a key here and will help pump the ridge out West. Like I said earlier, transient or not is irrelevant. Timing is the key during fast El Nino patterns. Time the pumping of the ridge with a diving s/w and there ya go. More to it than that but hopefully you get what I am saying. There are small windows of opportunity. We have one here and it *may* be able to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good to see nothing has changed here. The optimists hug whatever model shows the most and laugh when the GFS shows the least because "ha, it's the GFS". The pessimists hug whatever model shows the least and laugh when the Euro shows the most because "ha, remember the 'blizzard' last year". Try to remember that tracking is half the fun of this stupid hobby. Don't live and die with each run. If it's still a threat Wednesday, get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The pessimists hug whatever model shows the least and laugh when the Euro shows the most because "ha, remember the 'blizzard' last year". If the Euro is on your side, invoke Sandy. If it isn't, cite January '15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If the Euro is on your side, invoke Sandy. If it isn't, cite January '15. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If the Euro is on your side, invoke Sandy. If it isn't, cite January '15. The difference being the other models came around to be euros idea for Sandy. Last January it was mostly on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Guys I'm not here to be a buzz kill or to mute anyone but I will continue deleting posts in the storm threat thread until some of you figure out where to post. Please think before pressing "post". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Guys I'm not here to be a buzz kill or to mute anyone but I will continue deleting posts in the storm threat thread until some of you figure out where to post. Please think before pressing "post". What did the post say? Just so we know what's allowed. You don't have to say who posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What did the post say? Just so we know what's allowed. You don't have to say who posted it. I'm not trying to be a d*** but many of us have been on these boards for years. How is it possible to not know what you can't post in discussion and storm threads? I deleted some bickering and a lot of banter. Banter is fine but just post it in here. It keeps things organized and lets the reader not have to skip over 10 garbage posts in a row. This has been a problem for years and we are really cracking down on it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm not trying to be a d*** but many of us have been on these boards for years. How is it possible to not know what you can't post in discussion and storm threads? I deleted some bickering and a lot of banter. Banter is fine but just post it in here. It keeps things organized and lets the reader not have to skip over 10 garbage posts in a row. This has been a problem for years and we are really cracking down on it this year. Hmm. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 In order to track the potential of this storm (1/22-1/24) verifying, note the GFS currently gives us the following: 1. A 20% chance of ANY TYPE of precip during this period Today has a short period of 50% by contrast.* 2. A surface temp. that stays below 32 only 2/3 of the time in this period and may go up to 37. 3. Even cloud cover for the duration has trouble staying above 50%. This is going to have to improve before we go for an "eyes closed 3-pointer". *of course 20% for 48 hrs. is better than 50% for just 3 hrs., when viewed statistically. Some probalistic precip. is a virtual certainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro looks pretty sick right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 In order to track the potential of this storm (1/22-1/24) verifying, note the GFS currently gives us the following: 1. A 20% chance of ANY TYPE of precip during this period Today has a short period of 50% by contrast.* 2. A surface temp. that stays below 32 only 2/3 of the time in this period and may go up to 37. 3. Even cloud cover for the duration has trouble staying above 50%. This is going to have to improve before we go for an "eyes closed 3-pointer". *of course 20% for 48 hrs. is better than 50% for just 3 hrs., when viewed statistically. Some probalistic precip. is a virtual certainty Great post man. Thank you for your hard work in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Great post man. Thank you for your hard work in here. Hey, the guy's consistent. He picks one model - usually the Goofus - and rips and reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I love you guys, but im gonna super pis*** if the coast cashes in with 12+ during a super NINO, and north and west sections are shoveling 4-6".... I'll take what I can get, but I'll be mad lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hey, the guy's consistent. He picks one model - usually the Goofus - and rips and reads. I know. But in the face of some of the 500 mb maps im seeing I thought that was a classic post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I am not a one track, one model guy. Just more familiar and comfortable with the GFS. The 12Z EURO has a 60 hour storm track from MO. to the Maritime Provinces, with 10 inches for us. And one EURO is worth two GFSs in most cases. But it is not right to think that any of todays outputs can get everything right over a 1500mile long track and a 60 hour time period. Just hope our part of the curve is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Let's also be reminded this threat is SIX WHOLE DAYS OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Christ in heaven . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 4.5 days to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I love you guys, but im gonna super pis*** if the coast cashes in with 12+ during a super NINO, and north and west sections are shoveling 4-6".... I'll take what I can get, but I'll be mad lmao Too far too worry. It is a great system at 500 but I have seen locks blow up inside 24 hours. See March 01. Jan 15. Gun to my head we will do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The EURO is the best at picking these threats right at this time. this is certainly the best threat we've had thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Christ in heaven .image.jpeg This is going to be really, really frustrating if we end up with 2 feet while the philly area gets 3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What's that old saying about not wanting to be in the jackpot 6-7 days out? But wow if that 12z OP Euro run survives the under 120 and especially 72 hr test. It's interesting how the OP is a run or two behind the parallel. The 12z OP is close to what the 0z parallel was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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