Morris Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 New 0z parallel hi res Euro further NW and a touch warmer than the OP as 850's go above freezing near coast as they start below. The blocking on the parallel to the north is weaker than the OP. So a system that is too amped up could hug closer to the coast. We'll be interesting to see what things look like once we get to 120 hr and under. And to have this end up as rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Finally some decent looking high pressure showing up across the Canadian boarder. Long way to go, but fun to track nevertheless. Question on the Pac; it seems the isobars in Idaho are ridging just a bit to slow the flow down, will it be enough? Or should I be looking somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My confidence for this remains low but it's a little better knowing the Euro is on board and we finally have consistency. I give it a 20% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 6Z GEFS mean looks great!! Slow mover, near-perfect positioning, temps just cold enough. Wish this could be under 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Finally some decent looking high pressure showing up across the Canadian boarder. Long way to go, but fun to track nevertheless. Question on the Pac; it seems the isobars in Idaho are ridging just a bit to slow the flow down, will it be enough? Or should I be looking somewhere else? FHW till the SW energy is sampled...try this loop for starters its a nice rough sketch to work with--IMHO ***previous run arrows at bottom of image loop <--> give you comps in a flash loops http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2016011706&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2016011706&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=0 I will lean to a faster prog thru our area ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Like I said yesterday, a great coastal track, will not be ideal for someone in my position, and vise versa, so please don't be offended if I'm rooting for a closer to coast track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's finally good to have the Euro and the ensembles in our favor for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well that was a fun Euro run. Looks like there could maybe, possibly be some sort of storm next weekend. Lets hope it stays. I was just happy the Euro threw a few flakes out here later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not that it matters but the Euro control has 12+ for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The usually progressive NAVGEM is all wrapped up at 6Z. Just posting data, not trying to make assumptions, but seeing the NAVGEM tucked so tightly to the coast when it is generally a progressive model makes me raise an eyebrow. Probably nothing and its not the best model anyway. What I will take from the NAVGEM at this range is that a normally OTS model is on board with a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 New 0z parallel hi res Euro further NW and a touch warmer than the OP as 850's go above freezing near coast as they start below. The blocking on the parallel to the north is weaker than the OP. So a system that is too amped up could hug closer to the coast. We'll be interesting to see what things look like once we get to 120 hr and under. The PARA looks great . @ 12z tomorrow you are at Day 5 here . The GFS is a little quicker 0z tonight . As it is you are really @ D 5 for the M/A / OHV /SE PA and for those guys I think it`s close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The PARA looks great . @ 12z tomorrow you are at Day 5 here . The GFS is a little quicker 0z tonight . As it is you are really @ D 5 for the M/A / OHV /SE PA and for those guys I think it`s close . You think what is close? Not sure I am picking up what you are throwing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Threat has its own thread now that's it's within 5 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not that it matters but the Euro control has 12+ for the NYC area Well Heavens to Murgatroid, something may just happen this winter; I've been feeling like sadness in Inside Out ( a terrific film if you, if you have not yet seen it ) but still I'm gonna curb my enthusiasm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You think what is close? Not sure I am picking up what you are throwing down Places like Richmond Fredericksberg Charlottesville DC are only 5 days out . You def want to be inside 120 hours before you pull the trigger but there is enough here to say there is a major winter storm is headed into the M/A . You are only a day away from pulling the alarm . It is there , just be cautious in a winter that keeps wanting to start then pauses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Places like Richmond Fredericksberg Charlottesville DC are only 5 days out . You def want to be inside 120 hours before you pull the trigger but there is enough here to say there is a major winter storm headed into the M/A . You are only a day away from pulling the alarm . It is there , just be cautious in a winter that keeps wanting to start then pauses I am with you and agree 100%. Cautiously optimistic is the way to go for now. Steady as she goes captain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT is now on board *** ALERT!** MAJOR SNOWSTORM THREAT INCREASING FROM WESTERN NC into most of VA into MD DEL PHL eastern PA NJ NYC and ALL of southern NEW ENGLAND JAN 22-23 ( dont NOT get this confused with Sunday JAN 17) THE BIG DOG IS LOOSE " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 5 days to go. But If I'm not mistaken parts will begin to be seen in 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 4K NAM has the IVT for LI and NYC later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 5 days to go. But If I'm not mistaken parts will begin to be seen in 2-3 days. Prelim reinforcing cold front swings thru, so yes. This is also a key factor imo....definitely need to keep the cold reinforced prior to any onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 4K NAM has the IVT for LI and NYC later on today. Looks like snow outside. Steel-gray sky. Haven't seen a flake in a while. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z Nam for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z Nam for today So I might get my fix? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Would be nice if the closed low actually verifies to help keep the cold in place. Don't want to see the para shift any more NW since it's closer to coast than the current OP. But a strong storm signal is there with the rapid rise in the AO which has occurred many times in the past. Not focused yet on the details with such a fire hose hose jet in place. Yeah the details (snowfall accumulations etc.) should be left for a few days from now. One step at a time, at least we are moving in the right direction so far. I think the make or break model runs will either be the 12z runs on Wednesday or the 00z runs on Thursday, I think you should be able to pretty much lock in anything they are showing at the point with normal minor fluctuations still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT is now on board *** ALERT!** MAJOR SNOWSTORM THREAT INCREASING FROM WESTERN NC into most of VA into MD DEL PHL eastern PA NJ NYC and ALL of southern NEW ENGLAND JAN 22-23 ( dont NOT get this confused with Sunday JAN 17) THE BIG DOG IS LOOSE " Hes gotta be right eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah the details (snowfall accumulations etc.) should be left for a few days from now. One step at a time, at least we are moving in the right direction so far. I think the make or break model runs will either be the 12z runs on Wednesday or the 00z runs on Thursday, I think you should be able to pretty much lock in anything they are showing at the point with normal minor fluctuations still possible. I guess the main thing that I am happy about now is the new parallel hi res Euro lead the way further north here when the OP and ensemble mean were more suppressed the last few days. It also was first to detect the warmer track this weekend. While we'll need time to iron out the final track and details, this may potentially be the single most significant model upgrade of the 2000's so far. Can't wait until it goes operational in March and we see how it does with the coming hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And in an ironic twist,Salisbury,Md is getting dumped on currently by a storm that should have been swimming with the fishes lol..truely incredible start to this active week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z Nam for today Ant, flurries breaking out in parts of Suffolk already... Things looking a bit more interesting. Don't expect much here in SW Suffolk, but a NNE wind, temps dropping, a nice NNE fetch surface, SSW aloft... maybe what I can call an accumulation here in SW Suffolk? Would be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And in an ironic twist,Salisbury,Md is getting dumped on currently by a storm that should have been swimming with the fishes lol..truely incredible start to this active week. Dumped on? My brother that lives just outside of SBY is only reporting flurries, dusting at best right now. Not challenging you, just be careful what terms you are using to describe the snowfall rates. "Dumped on" generally conjures visions of 1/4 mile or less visibilities, significant accums, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Dumped on? My brother that lives just outside of SBY is only reporting flurries, dusting at best right now. Not challenging you, just be careful what terms you are using to describe the snowfall rates. "Dumped on" generally conjures visions of 1/4 mile or less visibilities, significant accums, etc.To be fair, I saw a webcam of the college football stadium before and it was all covered in an inch of snow and it was coming down heavily. It was posted in the MA subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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