Yanksfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Now, don't get too invested. We need consistency. This could all go up in smoke tomorrow. Keep a cool head and look at the general trends and you may escape with some sanity left. 100% agree. With such a progressive Pacific, this potential threat is literally walking on thin ice. Can this extreme run of the Euro happen? Of course. I will temper any excitement till Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 100% agree. With such a progressive Pacific, this potential threat is literally walking on thin ice. Can this extreme run of the Euro happen? Of course. I will temper any excitement till Monday.The storm gets captured and literally crawls east (at 192 it's still not past Maine's longitude), it would be awesomely ironic if this happens given the general flow this winter, but it'll be worth it just to see the tearful makeup make out session between some posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooklyndude Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hoooooly schnikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 100% agree. With such a progressive Pacific, this potential threat is literally walking on thin ice. Can this extreme run of the Euro happen? Of course. I will temper any excitement till Monday. Until Tuesday for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Big storms usually happen when the NAO and AO rises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Once again, I think it would be very prudent for most on here to look at the ensembles before jumping on what the operational runs show. You also need to look at the overall pattern, hopefully the pattern improves enough for this storm to occur and give us alot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How much for Philly? Near 24" EUROwx map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 EPS mean is on board with the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 EPS looks really good, great trends and hopefully we finally cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There's a week to go. I don't think we should be looking at accumulation maps with even 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Pacific just needs to cooperate and this will easily work out. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Pacific just needs to cooperate and this will easily work out. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk well said ..unfortunately only Sunday soo many runs to go ..as soon as one model shows OTS or cutter. .people are going freak. .not me ..I'm watching ..by tue oz or wed 12Z let's see where we are by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 well said ..unfortunately only Sunday soo many runs to go ..as soon as one model shows OTS or cutter. .people are going freak. .not me ..I'm watching ..by tue oz or wed 12Z let's see where we are by thenA Cutter isn't likely. OTS is far more likely in this event. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I remember that storm well, quite amazing. Snow came on like a wall of white, we got dry slotted here but picked up around 8" or so in a fairly short period of time. I remember far less than that, like 2-4, my father's wake was during the storm, so I remember it pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Maybe I threw in the towel just a day or so too soon. LR looking better. HECS tracking and SSWE prospects looking markedly better in recent days. EPS Breakdown 38/51 (~75%) members with 2+" 29/51 (~57%) members with 6+" 21/51 (41%) members with a 10+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My county in SEPA is literally smack dab in the bullseye on the Euro clown map. 24+" at day 6....yeah, umm, we all know how that usually works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My county in SEPA is literally smack dab in the bullseye on the Euro clown map. 24+" at day 6....yeah, umm, we all know how that usually works out. This is a different case because Atlantic blocking with an established 50/50 seem high likely to be in place in just a couple of days AND the PAC vort responsible for the downstream storm is on shore Tuesday, with little else to sample and figure out. There are also multiple ways this works out, as we saw from last night's GFS. This is why all the models are on it and the ones which aren't are showing their usual progressive biases. Likelihood of this event is higher than any other day 6 threat IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This is a different case because Atlantic blocking with an established 50/50 seem high likely to be in place in just a couple of days AND the PAC vort responsible for the downstream storm is on shore Tuesday, with little else to sample and figure out. There are also multiple ways this works out, as we saw from last night's GFS. This is why all the models are on it and the ones which aren't are showing their usual progressive biases. Likelihood of this event is higher than any other day 6 threat IMO.I agree with you as I have been on the neg nao flip train yielding an Archambeault event like this for several days now. However, I would be much more comfortable being in NYC right now believe it or not. That euro clown map is eerily similar to how Jan 96 looked just days prior ( but thru the MA with irt that storm), then shifted North last 24 hours. Could go either way....i just remember that storm, the heavy snow swath prog, and the subsequent shift north. I am cautiously optimistic but prepared for heartbreak here. Good luck with this one to all on this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I agree with you as I have been on the neg nao flip train yielding an Archambeault event like this for several days now. However, I would be much more comfortable being in NYC right now believe it or not. That euro clown map is eerily similar to how Jan 96 looked just days prior, then shifted North last 24 hours. Could go either way....i just remember that storm, the heavy snow swatch prog, and the subsequent shift north. I am cautiously optimistic but prepared for heartbreak nere. Good luck with this one to all on this board! I think you just need to root for an early transfer and not what the 0z GGEM showed. Philly/SNJ should do fine here, as should DC. This is about as classic a KU look as you can get, ya know? I'd choo-choo-choose this look any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think you just need to root for an early transfer and not what the 0z GGEM showed. Philly/SNJ should do fine here, as should DC. This is about as classic a KU look as you can get, ya know? I'd choo-choo-choose this look any day of the week.Lol! Yep, I shouldnt complain....savor being in a good spot for now I guess. Just being VERY cautious and trying not to get excited until we are within 48 hrs or less. LONG way to go, long week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lol! Yep, I shouldnt complain....savor being in a good spot for now I guess. Just being VERY cautious and trying not to get excited until we are within 48 hrs or less. LONG way to go, long week ahead. Yes. We have seen it all turn to ish very quickly in the past haven't we? Steady as she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 6z gfs is a significant snow strom DC to Bos. Seemed less phased that 0z but still very vice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 weenie surface maps maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 6z gfs is a significant snow strom DC to Bos. Seemed less phased that 0z but still very vice.onto 12zgfs ..lol..guess around 11-11:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS Snowfall Comps 06z 00z Money Line -- Swings Hard no doubt the sharp cut-off with precip will put mustard on your dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 With euro on board, along with pretty much all other guidance, you now have my curiousity winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Cautiously optimistic on this storm threat, the way this winter has gone im just waiting for the storm to start trending ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Cautiously optimistic on this storm threat, the way this winter has gone im just waiting for the storm to start trending otsI fully expect a few runs to show either OTS. .or such sharp cutoffs ..etc ..but still my gut says by Wed 12Z suite .nyc may have a nice 4-8 inch snow fall on tap ..I just rather keep expectations low .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I fully expect a few runs to show either OTS. .or such sharp cutoffs ..etc ..but still my gut says by Wed 12Z suite .nyc may have a nice 4-8 inch snow fall on tap ..I just rather keep expectations low .. Agree. Just hope for the best. The fast pac flow makes me very very weary of a huge storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 By wenesday the weenies will be jumping out there windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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