SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think there is a better chance this ends up a miss then too far inland. If you just look at where the models have been based on their tendencies this winter you get that idea too. GGEM has been too amped, is too amped. GFS has been near the best model and its ensembles have shown near misses, euro is going to Bermuda and has generally been too suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GGEM seems extreme taking the primary to Pittsburgh, tho stranger things have happened. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anybody have any maps for the February 11 -12 , 1983 storm which is the analog according to DT. ? http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/1983blizzard.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Go to thermodynamics on tidbits and it's out there. thanks - most METS will discount that run too IMO.....gets too far north and the transfer it does looks suspicious to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anybody have any maps for the February 11 -12 , 1983 storm which is the analog according to DT. ? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1983/us0211.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 thanks - most METS will discount that run too IMO.....gets too far north and the transfer it does looks suspicious to say the leastWhy would it be discounted? It is essentially the same thing yesterday's storm did at day 6 after being progged as a MECS. All options on the table imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 83 and Dec 09 were very similar, I see DTs idea here in that this sort of is an unphased "own amplifying" system but the difference is it amplifies out over the TN Valley region and has plenty of time in the flow to do so. The impressive thing about 83 and 09 is that the vorts amplified on their own coming almost straight out of the gulf region moving northeast courtesy of the upstream ridge amplifying to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/1983blizzard.html thanks - that storm had much colder air in front of it then what is forecast here at the end of the week - the temps were in the teens when the snow started falling that friday afternoon - still remember it http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1983/2/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anybody have any maps for the February 11 -12 , 1983 storm which is the analog according to DT. ? That storm was a Miller A. It formed in the Gulf of Mexico reached the Carolinas and then tracked northeastward from there. Mesoscale processes, possibly aided by a gravity wave, led to tremendous convective snows. It was a 1004 mb system just south of the Outer Banks of NC, 1000 mb off the Delmarva Peninsula, and 996 mb off Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That storm was a Miller A. It formed in the Gulf of Mexico reached the Carolinas and then tracked northeastward from there. Mesoscale processes, possibly aided by a gravity wave, led to tremendous convective snows. It was a 1004 mb system just south of the Outer Banks of NC, 1000 mb off the Delmarva Peninsula, and 996 mb off Cape Cod. The 700 and 850 low track was almost perfect for NYC. The rate of snow though was remarkable given the fact I don't think the low was closed until late at night when the snow was already nearly ending so I agree something else was going on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That storm was a Miller A. It formed in the Gulf of Mexico reached the Carolinas and then tracked northeastward from there. Mesoscale processes, possibly aided by a gravity wave, led to tremendous convective snows. It was a 1004 mb system just south of the Outer Banks of NC, 1000 mb off the Delmarva Peninsula, and 996 mb off Cape Cod. and a ton of arctic air to work with - temps in the teens in the metro http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1983/2/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 thanks - that storm had much colder air in front of it then what is forecast here at the end of the week - the temps were in the teens when the snow started falling that friday afternoon - still remember it http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1983/2/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Wow 4 hours of thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GEFS much improved than 18z. Low is southeast of the benchmark. It shows 0.75+ from NYC south on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wow 4 hours of thundersnow and visibility shows 0.1 for hours But it was more like 20 - 30 feet for a couple of hours in the evening vehicles were forced to stop on the highways and there were many abandoned.... http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1983/2/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 and visibility shows 0.1 for hours But it was more like 20 - 30 feet for a couple of hours in the evening vehicles were forced to stop on the highways and there were many abandoned....It also really only lasted 12 hours or so. Was the first storm I really remember. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 With the change back to awfulness aka +AO, this is the chance. Historically this is the go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 CMC Ensembles Looks like the GEFS. Much more defined low than 12z CMC Ensembles and 18z GEFS. CMC ensembles look way colder and a much earlier transfer than the op runs. h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GEFS much improved than 18z. Low is southeast of the benchmark. It shows 0.75+ from NYC south on the mean. Game On - for now.at least - thats what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 folks keep jerking off to the op GFS and ignore the GEFS will they ever learn?for the past 7 runs the op GFS has been VASTLY different from the GEFSthe differences are huge if you think these maps are the same you need to find a new hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Game On - for now.at least - thats what we need If it's still showing consistently in 48 hours we probably have something. This is already the most consistently modeled threat all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Long range gfs again showing lots of blocking at the end of the run for about the 4th run in a row. Nice too see nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 folks keep jerking off to the op GFS and ignore the GEFS will they ever learn? for the past 7 runs the op GFS has been VASTLY different from the GEFS the differences are huge if you think these maps are the same you need to find a new hobby 0zgefs144.jpg 144opGFS sfc.png FWIW that ensemble setup DOES look very 1983 like just from that one image at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 indeed IF you LOOK at the 0Z op GFS the BLUE line r/s lien goes into and past DC PHL and into NYC DT also said this is rain phl-nyc based on slp position soooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 folks keep jerking off to the op GFS and ignore the GEFS will they ever learn? for the past 7 runs the op GFS has been VASTLY different from the GEFS the differences are huge if you think these maps are the same you need to find a new hobby 0zgefs144.jpg 144opGFS sfc.png I assume you feel this storm has bigger impact in the mid Atlantic then up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Long range gfs again showing lots of blocking at the end of the run for about the 4th run in a row. Nice too see nonetheless Stormy on the GFS. It took away the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yup long way out but would rather see cold blocking and stormy in the long range then the alternative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Stormy on the GFS. It took away the warmth. IMO I don't think anyone has a true handle on exactly what is going to unfold the second half of this week and beyond - sorry to say ........devil is in the details and one little shift here and there will make a huge difference with this storm later this week ..to just discount the Ops in favor of the means or the Euro could be a mistake - as I proved in an earlier post that the GEFS from 1/9 did not verify for this weekend and will not for early this week the 18 -19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 IMO I don't think anyone has a true handle on exactly what is going to unfold the second half of this week and beyond - sorry to say ........devil is in the details and one little shift here and there will make a huge difference with this storm later this week .. Agree. GEFS also agree that there is no warmth at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 indeed IF you LOOK at the 0Z op GFS the BLUE line r/s lien goes into and past DC PHL and into NYC These models long range medium range all have sucked this year so far aka the only thing you get from this is a storm signal...finally somewhat of a cold high up north...and teleconnectors rising from negtive AO and Nao to positive which can also signal a winter storm worrying whether a rain / snow line will be either side of 50 miles is pointless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 with the ao at almost -5 today it could mean something big on the horizon...one thing for sure is it's going to be cold next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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