Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z gefs still has strong signal for storm near OBX late week. It heads OTS like the other ens means from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There are clearly 2 camps right now in regards to Jan 22-23. The gfs/ggem ops with their farther North and tight to the coast depictions while the other camp (euro op, eps, gefs, geps) are all ots from around OBX. Still extremely early, but I would tend to lean towards the latter camp at this point. Ens means generally do ok at this range. Still a long way to go so expect many changes as the week progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There are clearly 2 camps right now in regards to Jan 22-23. The gfs/ggem ops with their farther North and tight to the coast depictions while the other camp (euro op, eps, gefs, geps) are all ots from around OBX. Still extremely early, but I would tend to lean towards the latter camp at this point. Ens means generally do ok at this range. Still a long way to go so expect many changes as the week progresses. They don't do ok - here is last Saturday the 9th GEFS precip for todays storm - predicted just about nothing and NYC got .24 plus what ever fell before midnight - and if you look at the total precip for the next couple of days it was predicting tomorrow's and monday's storm to dump significant amounts of precip in the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 They don't do ok - here is last Saturday the 9th GEFS precip for todays storm - predicted just about nothing and NYC got .24 plus what ever fell before midnight - and if you look at the total precip for the next couple of days it was predicting tomorrow's and monday's storm to dump significant amounts of precip in the metro Fair enough, the ens means are not completely infallible. However, given the current data and range, which camp would you lean towards at the moment? And I realize neither may even end up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Fair enough, the ens means are not completely infallible. However, given the current data and range, which camp would you lean towards at the moment? And I realize neither may even end up being correct. I don't lean towards any camp right now - and I also believe that anyone that is writing this storm off at this range just because the way the winter has gone so far is being foolish........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's not writing anything off. It's acknowledging that you have a raging super El Niño with a roided STJ slamming into the west coast with progressive flow and a parade of cyclones across the pacific which knocks down any temp PNA ridge that tries to form and that fast flow doesn't allow SWs that break on the east coast to slow down, phase and amplify and let a storm climb the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't lean towards any camp right now - and I also believe that anyone that is writing this storm off at this range just because the way the winter has gone so far is being foolish...........well said let's see where potential is by tue oz suite ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Forky do u think this has at least a small chance of verifying? i think OTS is most likely. i doubt the pac jet allows a slow moving cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i think OTS is most likely. i doubt the pac jet allows a slow moving cutoffmakes sense. Or a sideswipe like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 the op gfs is more aggressive than every ensemble member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nam gets some light snow up towards nyc. 4k nam also for tomorrow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 makes sense. Or a sideswipe like today Nothing make sense a week away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT says Feb. 11 - 12, 1983 is the analog storm he is using for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT says Feb. 11 - 12, 1983 is the analog storm he is using for next weekend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-WCxLeMMfA&feature=youtu.be It looks more like a non Miller B version of 2/8/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It looks more like a non Miller B version of 2/8/13 Just got an email from Larry C. "What do you do when three of the four major computer models forecast the threat for a major winter storm affecting the Old South, and the one outlier equation happens to be the ECMWF scheme? It would be easy to write off the chance for important frozen precipitation. Yes, the American and Canadian schemes are predicting 2 to 3 feet of snow for parts of Appalachia and the Interstate 95 corridor, which is unlikely to happen! But I suspect that the European panels are not initializing the southern branch very well, So a chunk of Dixie and the Eastern Seaboard could get hit with the first accumulating frozen precipitation event of the season. But before anyone goes crazy with cheering for a major snowstorm, the structure of this disturbance points toward a limited area of precipitation in the cold sectors. At least some of the event is bound to be rain as far north as the New York NY metro. Remember that the air mass in the Midwest and Northeast, while still nominally in the polar to Arctic spectrum, will be moderating. So in the chance that you snow enthusiasts "get lucky", some change to liquid type is probable where lower elevations are involved in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions on Friday and Saturday. Conversely, parts of the Interstate 70 corridor (and perhaps the western half of the Interstate 40 communities) may get appreciable snowfall as the temperature profiles stay below 35 deg F at surface." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just got an email from Larry C. "What do you do when three of the four major computer models forecast the threat for a major winter storm affecting the Old South, and the one outlier equation happens to be the ECMWF scheme? It would be easy to write off the chance for important frozen precipitation. Yes, the American and Canadian schemes are predicting 2 to 3 feet of snow for parts of Appalachia and the Interstate 95 corridor, which is unlikely to happen! But I suspect that the European panels are not initializing the southern branch very well, So a chunk of Dixie and the Eastern Seaboard could get hit with the first accumulating frozen precipitation event of the season. But before anyone goes crazy with cheering for a major snowstorm, the structure of this disturbance points toward a limited area of precipitation in the cold sectors. At least some of the event is bound to be rain as far north as the New York NY metro. Remember that the air mass in the Midwest and Northeast, while still nominally in the polar to Arctic spectrum, will be moderating. So in the chance that you snow enthusiasts "get lucky", some change to liquid type is probable where lower elevations are involved in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions on Friday and Saturday. Conversely, parts of the Interstate 70 corridor (and perhaps the western half of the Interstate 40 communities) may get appreciable snowfall as the temperature profiles stay below 35 deg F at surface." doesnt sound like a big deal if temps are marginal...those often don't work out for the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-WLD-250-spd-168-1 Global View GFS 18z 250mb jet pattern This storm looks like a hiccup for our area in the overall picture ATM fast and flat flow is not that hard to follow---IMHO PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP for good measure http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-GFS-NE-prec-pwat-168-1 not a forecast...just a vibe,that follows along with some respected posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooklyndude Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Is dt the crazy guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Is dt the crazy guy? PRO MET TROLL..is more like it!!! but I digress CFS look in (see-saw) http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=2016011612-CFS-US-850-temp-168-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooklyndude Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 They i like em already. Bit kooky is cool with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Is dt the crazy guy? Yes, but he called me Sparky. Not sure if I'm insulted or flattered. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i think OTS is most likely. i doubt the pac jet allows a slow moving cutoff Many thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Is dt the crazy guy?He's the least professional meteorologist out there. Met him personally at the North East Storm Conference and he was nice, but online....he's pretty rough Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i think OTS is most likely. i doubt the pac jet allows a slow moving cutoffno offense but u always think the worst cause I'm assuming you get some type of satisfaction out of all us weenies not getting any snow. Grow out of it and don't be ignorant man. I think we're getting a snowstorm and that's my final answer? You wanna bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT posted something earlier regarding the low getting tucked into SBY and lots of rain from PHL to NYC. Not sure if this is how he is feeling this will play out or just regurgitation model output but found that sort of interesting for him to post at this juncture. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 no offense but u always think the worst cause I'm assuming you get some type of satisfaction out of all us weenies not getting any snow. Grow out of it and don't be ignorant man. I think we're getting a snowstorm and that's my final answer? You wanna bet? Don't bet against forky. It's often -- though not always -- a losing proposition. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 no offense but u always think the worst cause I'm assuming you get some type of satisfaction out of all us weenies not getting any snow. Grow out of it and don't be ignorant man. I think we're getting a snowstorm and that's my final answer? You wanna bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 no offense but u always think the worst cause I'm assuming you get some type of satisfaction out of all us weenies not getting any snow. Grow out of it and don't be ignorant man. I think we're getting a snowstorm and that's my final answer? You wanna bet? Well the AO and NAO are rising. A storm usually happens when they rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well the AO and NAO are rising. A storm usually happens when they rise. i made two bets so far this year have won both. One against forky that we'd get some snow flurries got them... Than another one against longislandsurffreak for snow showers by the 22nd won that too a few days ago. I'm willing to bet that we get a big blizzard coming up! Next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you're new, I wouldn't talk smack about forky. I occasionally may disagree about his affliction towards winter storms, but he's a damn good met. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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