PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The warm up on the Euro looks transient and the GFS looks very fair . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro ensembles coming in way better than op for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yawn. People out and about today in shorts and shirtsleeves, I'm wearing a flannel shirt to run errands. This is more like an Atlanta winter than NYC....my grass will need cut soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro ensembles coming in way better than op for next weekend So basically whenever you want, the Euro sucks and the GFS is king, and when the Euro shows snow, it's all of a sudden a great model? I don't understand why you get your hopes up and down everyday depending on what the model runs show. It's definitely not healthy, and the models barely even have a good grip on this "storm" yet. I used to be the same thing with snow, until I just got fed up with constantly tracking imaginary storms that almost never come to fruition. A couple runs in your favor isn't a trend, not until all the models converge on that solution and show it for multiple days. IMO, the models' handle on snowstorms is worse than their handle on t-storms. At least thunderstorms are large enough to cover relatively large areas, and often come in groups large enough to impact multiple areas. With snow, a small shift in the position of the low in a snowstorm can mean the difference of 20 inches of snow, and 2 inches of rain for a massive portion of the region. I just don't understand why you guys begin tracking storms from so far out, riding a rollercoaster of emotions, rather than just begin tracking from around 3-4 days out, and enjoy the snow without getting your hopes up and down a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Because when there is nothing to track in the next 3 or 4 days you look further out. Human nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Upton with not even a mention of precip .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 EPS is slower but it has the similar open wave like the op. No phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So basically whenever you want, the Euro sucks and the GFS is king, and when the Euro shows snow, it's all of a sudden a great model? I don't understand why you get your hopes up and down everyday depending on what the model runs show. It's definitely not healthy, and the models barely even have a good grip on this "storm" yet. I used to be the same thing with snow, until I just got fed up with constantly tracking imaginary storms that almost never come to fruition. A couple runs in your favor isn't a trend, not until all the models converge on that solution and show it for multiple days. IMO, the models' handle on snowstorms is worse than their handle on t-storms. At least thunderstorms are large enough to cover relatively large areas, and often come in groups large enough to impact multiple areas. With snow, a small shift in the position of the low in a snowstorm can mean the difference of 20 inches of snow, and 2 inches of rain for a massive portion of the region. I just don't understand why you guys begin tracking storms from so far out, riding a rollercoaster of emotions, rather than just begin tracking from around 3-4 days out, and enjoy the snow without getting your hopes up and down a million times. Please quote one poster here bashing the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Please quote one poster here bashing the euro. I didn't mean people here are literally cursing the Euro for not showing what they want. I simply meant that people don't care for it or treat it like it's not worth their attention when it doesn't show what the other models show. And besides, whatever the models, including the Euro, are showing now is simply computer imagination for now. Until all the models converge, and/or we're at least within 4 days of the event, the models will be just throwing out colorful pictures. It's like that for all weather (not patterns though): Snow, rain, convection, temps, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I didn't mean people here are literally cursing the Euro for not showing what they want. I simply meant that people don't care for it or treat it like it's not worth their attention when it doesn't show what the other models show. And besides, whatever the models, including the Euro, are showing now is simply computer imagination for now. Until all the models converge, and/or we're at least within 4 days of the event, the models will be just throwing out colorful pictures. Been that way on here for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 EPS is slower but it has the similar open wave like the op. No phase Way better. Getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I didn't mean people here are literally cursing the Euro for not showing what they want. I simply meant that people don't care for it or treat it like it's not worth their attention when it doesn't show what the other models show. And besides, whatever the models, including the Euro, are showing now is simply computer imagination for now. Until all the models converge, and/or we're at least within 4 days of the event, the models will be just throwing out colorful pictures. It's like that for all weather (not patterns though): Snow, rain, convection, temps, etc... Considering it is still 6 days out, there is actually fairly decent agreement in terms of evolution of this storm. Between the ens means (gefs, geps, eps) there is solid consensus for slp to emerge right around OBX. It is thereafter that the solutions become more diverse with some op models taking the storm NNE tho the ens are admittedly generally more progressive. I still think it is about 36 hours too soon at 'least' before we start putting much stock in the operational models. The ens means are the way to go for now and they honestly arent offering the best chances for this to come North at this very moment. However, with tempered expectations, I will take a slp near the OBX at day 6 in late January 7 days a week and twice on Sunday and gladly take my chances from there. Lots of time, lots of varied solutions coming I would presume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I didn't mean people here are literally cursing the Euro for not showing what they want. I simply meant that people don't care for it or treat it like it's not worth their attention when it doesn't show what the other models show. And besides, whatever the models, including the Euro, are showing now is simply computer imagination for now. Until all the models converge, and/or we're at least within 4 days of the event, the models will be just throwing out colorful pictures. It's like that for all weather (not patterns though): Snow, rain, convection, temps, etc... Respectfully disagree that posters here, and I'm speaking in general, of course there can be exceptions, don't care what the euro solutions show. There's pretty much a consensus that the euro is the best model to rely on. Not surprisingly we call it the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 4K nam brushes the coast with snow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 0z Euro parallel Euro further north than the ensemble mean and OP. It was also the first model to see the warmer solution this weekend. Be interesting to see where the new hii res stands at the critical 120 hr mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 correct 0z Euro parallel Euro further north than the ensemble mean and OP. It was also the first model to see the warmer solution this weekend. Be interesting to see where the new hii res stands at the critical 120 hr mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So basically whenever you want, the Euro sucks and the GFS is king, and when the Euro shows snow, it's all of a sudden a great model? I don't understand why you get your hopes up and down everyday depending on what the model runs show. It's definitely not healthy, and the models barely even have a good grip on this "storm" yet. I used to be the same thing with snow, until I just got fed up with constantly tracking imaginary storms that almost never come to fruition. A couple runs in your favor isn't a trend, not until all the models converge on that solution and show it for multiple days. IMO, the models' handle on snowstorms is worse than their handle on t-storms. At least thunderstorms are large enough to cover relatively large areas, and often come in groups large enough to impact multiple areas. With snow, a small shift in the position of the low in a snowstorm can mean the difference of 20 inches of snow, and 2 inches of rain for a massive portion of the region. I just don't understand why you guys begin tracking storms from so far out, riding a rollercoaster of emotions, rather than just begin tracking from around 3-4 days out, and enjoy the snow without getting your hopes up and down a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Huge coastal storm next weekend on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18z similar if not better than 12zIt's so hard not to be a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18z Gfs a little further north for the Monday storm. Brushed what looks like Suffolk county maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Does 18z gfs have rain or snow for the coastal next weekend?? Looks like forecast ive seen show it warming up next weekend! That storm is going to have to take a perfect track for us to get snow atleast for the coast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Does 18z gfs have rain or snow for the coastal next weekend?? Looks like forecast ive seen show it warming up next weekend! That storm is going to have to take a perfect track for us to get snow atleast for the coast!! 18z GFS is another MECS for next weekend, snow on coast as well, it's close however, Long Island gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18z Gfs a little further north for the Monday storm. Brushed what looks like Suffolk county maybe? I've noticed little by very little models have been trying to throw a few flakes around tomorrow evening now. 18z Rgem is the latest example, it had nothing around here in earlier runs. Would be nice to see a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Does 18z gfs have rain or snow for the coastal next weekend?? Looks like forecast ive seen show it warming up next weekend! That storm is going to have to take a perfect track for us to get snow atleast for the coast!! Cold 850s but surface is in mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It'll be another battle with next weekends set-up, a good track for us N+W folks is not what you city and coastal guys want, but all snow for you will most like mean screw zone, and decreased precip totals for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It'll be another battle with next weekends set-up, a good track for us N+W folks is not what you city and coastal guys want, but all snow for you will most like mean screw zone, and decreased precip totals for us The way I look at it is, we need to figure out if there will even be a storm first... Some encouraging signs today, but does it stay that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It'll be another battle with next weekends set-up, a good track for us N+W folks is not what you city and coastal guys want, but all snow for you will most like mean screw zone, and decreased precip totals for us If it takes an occluded benchmark low with 0.5"/hr snowfall rates between bands of subsidence to give me marginal advisory snows... I'll take it and run. We really cannot afford to be picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Anyone think we can get an inch this weekend with this coastal. It really looks a lot more north than the models are bringing it up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Anyone think we can get an inch this weekend with this coastal. It really looks a lot more north than the models are bringing it up to? Not a chance... An inch? No... Dusting? Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 CPC verification tool FIREFOX TESTED ONLY ATM http://www.vwt.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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