Doorman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol the government workers turn the cranks that make the Goofus run M-F, you didn't know that? Dano... we on the floor laffin you are such a Truther the board will forever be in your debt!!! http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f192_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This euro run might do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I believe you are correct. My bad. Here it tis! "6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks area modified by the forecaster." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This euro run might do it Look disjointed to me. Prob a missed phase and ots. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Dr.No says no. To progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea over 2 feet for a lot of immediate metro and surroundings, where have I seen those before??? Oh yea Great storm we were supposed to get 2 to 3 ft ended up with 7 inches. And the storm under performed in general in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good luck guys. The Pac shows no signs of slowing down. It's going to be hard to verify one of those big solutions we saw today. It's not impossible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Youre a glutton for punishment like the rest of us The occasional reward more than compensates for the punishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Dr.No says no. To progressive. Improvement from 0z. It shows a big storm offshore. Its by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Improvement from 0z. It shows a big storm offshore. Its by itself. Pac isn't cooperating with us. Wouldn't rule EURO solution out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Improvement from 0z. It shows a big storm offshore. Its by itself. Compared to half a day of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 While stating that the Euro missed last year's HECS by about 20 inches for most of the metro and the GFS caught on earlier ( about 18 hours) to huge reduction in totals I will still go with a model that verifies over 90% of the time. So we wait and see the next 48 hours. If the Big Dog still barking by Tuesday then we can talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Pac isn't cooperating with us. Wouldn't rule EURO solution out. I would still use the EPS over the euro op at this range. Goes to show tho that the Pacific pattern is even more important than the Atlantic IMHO. We can make due with a mediocre Atl pattern but really need that ridge out West to get the biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 how low is your low ...in the flow??? http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Whats Euro show for Sunday night? Any snow showers for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Whats Euro show for Sunday night? Any snow showers for the coast? UKIE had some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 With the 12z runs, some models brought the low north for a big hit, some backed off of the big hit they showed before, and others continue to show an out to sea solution. Way too early to count this one out, or to get very excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 UKIE had some light snow. and the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I would still use the EPS over the euro op at this range. Goes to show tho that the Pacific pattern is even more important than the Atlantic IMHO. We can make due with a mediocre Atl pattern but really need that ridge out West to get the biggies. The Euro just flattened that ridge at 12z when compared to 00z, I'm not a fan of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Whats Euro show for Sunday night? Any snow showers for the coast? Not much. Possibly a couple flakes out east and along the immediate south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro not being on board is definitely concerning to me. Hopefully it's nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro not being on board is definitely concerning to me. Hopefully it's nothing. It's a week out. This has a less than a 10% chance of verifying (any model solution that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not much. Possibly a couple flakes out east and along the immediate south shore. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro not being on board is definitely concerning to me. Hopefully it's nothing. Why?? Its a week away. You shouldn't care enough at this point to be concerned. Storm lover is right. This is probably a ghost storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro being in the same camp as the NAVGEM does not instill much confidence in the EURO... GFS and GGEM virtually deadlocked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The difference between the GFS and the Euro can be seen here . I can`t post 500 vorticity maps because they are pay walled and you would be able to see the difference easier . The Euro drags its heels between 132- 144 in the S . The DETOUR you see here at 500mb is a result of the Euro being so POS tilted is slower and missed the N branch at 150 . Some will say it just the Euro holding energy back and it is possible . If the bias is to have more resistance on it`s southern side than it is possible that the GFS staying Neut through the midwest would phase in the TENN valley . Or it`s just an excuse many of use when we miss a phase . There is no PAC issue at play here . At least not on these maps . The difference is timing . Being that is 7 days away , I could not tell which is right but that this needs to change to catch the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 There are two theories with the NavGEM, when beyond 120 hours if it is like other global models it usually means those global models are wrong. The Euro may be correct although I am reluctant to believe it this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The difference between the GFS and the Euro can be seen here . I can`t post 500 vorticity maps because they are pay walled and you would be able to see the difference easier . The Euro drags its heels between 132- 144 in the S . The DETOUR you see here at 500mb is a result of the Euro being so POS tilted is slower and missed the N branch at 150 . Some will say it just the Euro holding energy back and it is possible . If the bias is to have more resistance on it`s southern side than it is possible that the GFS staying Neut through the midwest would phase in the TENN valley . Or it`s just an excuse many of use when we miss a phase . There is no PAC issue at play here . At least not on these maps . The difference is timing . Being that is 7 days away , I could not tell which is right but that this needs to change to catch the GFS As a whole this is a setup that tends to be favored during either extreme blocking or shorter wave lengths based on where the western ridge is positioned and other factors. Hence why this may end up offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 No. He didnt say it was strengthening, like you claimed. I posted cpc data proving it, and youre here attempting to call me a weenie. Take a break. I'm not calling anyone a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 As a whole this is a setup that tends to be favored during either extreme blocking or shorter wave lengths based on where the western ridge is positioned and other factors. Hence why this may end up offshore I thought the ridge axis looked ok/similar . The SW in front of this on the GFS is weaker so it allows a Neutral tilt . The front SW looks stronger on the Euro and maybe that`s what slows and is forced S . Take a look at the EURO at 120 - that SW has a Neut tilt when it hits the panhandle then it breaks SE between 126- 144 instead of continuing through the flow . You can see the flow on the GFS it`s E then NE . The Euro digs . Hey 7 days out , maybe only half of these features are on the board in 72 hours . I am just looking for the differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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