donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Post the article. Here are the official numbers. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for I believe this was it. So far it seems at odds with the weekly and monthly data. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Many thanks. Maybe the warm up is short duration ie 2 to 3 weeks The GFS is really not all that warm in the long range, at least not until the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah it's over 2 feet for parts of Northern NJ and PA lol. Well at least it's something to track. Yea over 2 feet for a lot of immediate metro and surroundings, where have I seen those before??? Oh yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea over 2 feet for a lot of immediate metro and surroundings, where have I seen those before??? Oh yea :thumbsdown: not cool bro. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just remember, GFS provides "auto" forecasts on weekends. Updated manually during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea over 2 feet for a lot of immediate metro and surroundings, where have I seen those before??? Oh yea This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This Except that was 24 hours before not 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 :thumbsdown: not cool bro. Lol. Lmao easily worst day of my weather life.... Told my neighbors, family, friends, etc... The world was basically turning to snow and we got 2.1 inches LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I believe this was it. So far it seems at odds with the weekly and monthly data. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4808 It seems the only claim they make about the nino was that it was growing in physical size, not strength. The only other comment about strength was a hypothesis that the physical size of the nino could indicate it wasnt done strengthening yet (not that it was still strengthening). If thats the basis for his claim of a still strengthening nino.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What I feel like when I come on here... Facking Romper Room with magic mirrors!!!! https://youtu.be/sKFxHGRXsLY she forgot to add the GFS run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea over 2 feet for a lot of immediate metro and surroundings, where have I seen those before??? Oh yea That 2 feet verified out here, didn't miss by that much IMO. Last minute 50 mile shifts happen all the time, that one sticks out because of the high stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just remember, GFS provides "auto" forecasts on weekends. Updated manually during the week. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Keep this in mind, the Pac flow has not changed, at all. Still raging STJ and incredible fast flow this week and next weekend. Nothing has changed. Look at the satellite, congo line of storms across the entire pacific set to slam into the west coast. View the latest GFS and CMC with extreme caution. Nothing pac wise has shifted, same as the last several weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lmao easily worst day of my weather life.... Told my neighbors, family, friends, etc... The world was basically turning to snow and we got 2.1 inches LMAO I remember when it was like 11 P.M and everyone were commentating "it's over" etc.. especially after seeing how the bands hit a wall in Nassau County. The next day I wake up to 3 inches.. somehow EWR recorded 8 inches. GFS had 8-12" as well, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I believe this was it. So far it seems at odds with the weekly and monthly data.http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4808 Thank you Don. And while it's not a hard and fast conclusion regarding particular strength, basically they say the total force in temp and area of the El Niño likely hadn't peaked. Any way my reference regarding this was more about the fact that a collapse or steady decline was not likely to happen and offer us second half hope. NASA and Caltech, who in sorry, I will take over us weenies posting, got this correct as even Nino region data has warmed done again and the peak those were calling may not be here. Score one for NASA and my reference. Problem this year is the disgust with the overall weather outcome. Not my fault, just keeping it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It seems the only claim they make about the nino was that it was growing in physical size, not strength. The only other comment about strength was a hypothesis that the physical size of the nino could indicate it wasnt done strengthening yet (not that it was still strengthening). If thats the basis for his claim of a still strengthening nino.... I agree with your read. In terms of anomalies, it's slowly weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Thank you Don. And while it's not a hard and fast conclusion regarding particular strength, basically they say the total force in temp and area of the El Niño likely hadn't peaked. Any way my reference regarding this was more about the fact that a collapse or steady decline was not likely to happen and offer us second half hope. NASA and Caltech, who in sorry, I will take over us weenies posting, got this correct as even Nino region data has warmed done again and the peak those were calling may not be here. Score one for NASA and my reference. Problem this year is the disgust with the overall weather outcome. Not my fault, just keeping it real. No. He didnt say it was strengthening, like you claimed. I posted cpc data proving it, and youre here attempting to call me a weenie. Take a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Thank you Don. And while it's not a hard and fast conclusion regarding particular strength, basically they say the total force in temp and area of the El Niño likely hadn't peaked. Any way my reference regarding this was more about the fact that a collapse or steady decline was not likely to happen and offer us second half hope. NASA and Caltech, who in sorry, I will take over us weenies posting, got this correct as even Nino region data has warmed done again and the peak those were calling may not be here. Score one for NASA and my reference. Problem this year is the disgust with the overall weather outcome. Not my fault, just keeping it real. The sample size for super ENSO events is so small, one has to allow for a lot of uncertainty. It will be fascinating to see how things turn out and the lessons that can be learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea over 2 feet for a lot of immediate metro and surroundings, where have I seen those before??? Oh yea The storm no one can forget lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Let's see what the Euro shows (or doesn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Keep this in mind, the Pac flow has not changed, at all. Still raging STJ and incredible fast flow this week and next weekend. Nothing has changed. Look at the satellite, congo line of storm across the entire pacific set to slam into the west coast. View the latest GFS and CMC with extreme caution. Nothing pac wise has shifted, same as the last several weeks That's the first thing I've noticed. We have a major storm along the coast and out west the Flow is fast off the pacific. There's not much ridging there if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What their main page , left side column says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Let's see what the Euro shows (or doesn't). Dr No will say no. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What their main page , left side column says. Who is they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Let's see what the Euro shows (or doesn't). Youre a glutton for punishment like the rest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro doesnt need to show 2 feet of powder, just the potential for a powder keg, not a storm languishing cutoff in the 4 corners. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The GFS link that was posted here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What their main page , left side column says. PM I think you mean the CPC forecast ??? ---right -- not the GFS model runs http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 PM I think you mean the CPC forecast ??? ---right -- not the GFS model runs http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. Lol the government workers turn the cranks that make the Goofus run M-F, you didn't know that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 When I count to three, Open Your Eyes: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?lang=en&map=us&stn=NewYork&mod=gemglb&var=prcp Thats 20 inches worth of fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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