weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The Canadian is a crush job UKMET JMA have a day 7 system . I would like to see 2 things before this is nothing more than banter , have the Euro see it and get inside 5 days . So although really great to look at at 7 days I am way too gun shy . Fast flow is a killer and the models have broken down in just about every event it has shown in Jan .' The cold did not stick and systems have been too progressive . Trust me , I see the errors . The cold did not hold . But I still think we manage to get close to N by the 21st and if it snows no one will care what Jan finishes . N + 2 or + 4 . If it snows PB all is forgiven for all of us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sounds like this storm , 8 days ago Yep, which is why I wouldn't get invested to this storm to Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Already enough burns this season in the d7 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One final reminder....if you make a specific claim about data without backing it up with the actual data, it will not be tolerated, banter or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ooooh the canadian is a crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sounds like this storm , 8 days ago Much better setup for a big storm this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ooooh the canadian is a crush job Like it crushed our feelings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The HP's in Canada will determine the track and precip type of next weekends potential storm ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 "Typical models showing a snowstorm at 168 hrs. The real trick is getting the show down under 72 hrs" -sundog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 "Typical models showing a snowstorm at 168 hrs. The real trick is getting the show down under 72 hrs" -sundog. Well he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ooooh the canadian is a crush job Any details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 At 7 days away it`s L/R . The pattern has not supported snow to date and I am not sure if it would support a big storm a week out . Yes there are several models that have a big storm , however the Euro did not like it at 0z . You always want this to lead the way . The models keep breaking down very good looks as we get closer . Maybe as the AO rises and the vortex leaves it may give us a chance to produce . But I would not take this seriously until we are at day 4 . All you need is 1 SW to hit the WC as this is coming east and you flatten the flow and E it goes . Right now , it has a chance . We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The models all agree on one thing. The Nino heater starting next weekend and beyond... I would bet a hefty sum that's transient, I don't see that going much past 2/2 or so at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ok question here. Anyone worried it could be too warm for at least part of the storm? GFS has the storm take a bit for the coastal to get going and cool everyone down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ok question here. Anyone worried it could be too warm for at least part of the storm? GFS has the storm take a bit for the coastal to get going and cool everyone down. It's too far out to get specific on details such as that. At this point, be happy that a storm is on the models and hope that the Euro latches onto the threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just a peak at the CMC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That sure is nice looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Heartbreaker of Year maker ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 the clown map on the CMC is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Heartbreaker of Year maker ?Being a sports fan for nearly 40 years I can tell you this : the worst losing seasons are those where you come incredibly close to wining only to throw 3 interceptions in the 4th quarter. This storm may yet or not to be New York City's New York Jets moment for snow watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 And it's only 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I would take a Feb. 1983 BIG DOG redux and be satisfied. Interested in hearing what Voice of God aka DT has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 the clown map on the CMC is fantastic Yeah it's over 2 feet for parts of Northern NJ and PA lol. Well at least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Excuse me? Wanna try again? I didnt question NASA, i asked for THEIR DATA. You made a claim and refused to back it up, while i posted data refuting the claim. So...like i said. Try again? NASA did not post their data. They made a general public statement/commentary in an article that they saw signs of the Nino actually showing signs of strength and not peaking yet. I can't post data not publicly available, but it's nasa, I'm going to take them at their word that they have support for this claim more than the data you may be seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 1st things 1st . Maybe a few snow showers tomorrow night for the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 print it out Forky do u think this has at least a small chance of verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lets get this on the Euro, and at day 3. Then I'll raise an eyebrow. Just too much chaos this year for me to get interested this far out. Hope it hits though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NASA did not post their data. They made a general public statement/commentary in an article that they saw signs of the Nino actually showing signs of strength and not peaking yet. I can't post data not publicly available, but it's nasa, I'm going to take them at their word that they have support for this claim more than the data you may be seeing. Post the article. Here are the official numbers. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lets get this on the Euro, and at day 3. Then I'll raise an eyebrow. Just too much chaos this year for me to get interested this far out. Hope it hits though. The euro has been so bad I have zero concern if its not showing it before 72-84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Forky do u think this has at least a small chance of verifying? It absolutely could verify, but so could a myriad of other solutions. The Archambault signal is there, too. But not getting excited until early next week. Unfortunately, it's not my favorite kind of transition... The heavy snowstorm followed by a warmup. I much prefer the transition to blocking, cold, and additional snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It absolutely could verify, but so could a myriad of other solutions. The Archambault signal is there, too. But not getting excited until early next week. Unfortunately, it's not my favorite kind of transition... The heavy snowstorm followed by a warmup. I much prefer the transition to blocking, cold, and additional snow chances. Many thanks. Maybe the warm up is short duration ie 2 to 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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