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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Not a terrible call, although you're off on the dates, and it won't be 5 above unless you have absolutely insane anomalies the last few days.

Unless you get an anomalous lucky blocking pattern in the type of El Niño the winter is dead in the Atlantic coastal plain. And the Nino is pulsing stronger again, may not have peaked.

I hope we cash in next week on a small or moderate snow event because it could be a few weeks before another. Feb and march could see significant warmth. In the end we'll all look back at this winter and say hopefully never again. Just dreaded in the east for winter fans.

+5 could overshoot, still think it could be close though. If it comes in +3 I'll have failed,but the end of the month could feature those 55/38 days which are +15 in the heart of winter

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Unless you get an anomalous lucky blocking pattern in the type of El Niño the winter is dead in the Atlantic coastal plain. And the Nino is pulsing stronger again, may not have peaked.

I hope we cash in next week on a small or moderate snow event because it could be a few weeks before another. Feb and match could see significant warmth. In the end we'll all look back at this winter and say hopefully never again. Just dreaded in the east for winter fans.

+5ciuld overshoot, still think it could be close though. If it comes in +3 I'll have failed,but the end of the month could feature those 55/38 days which are +15 in the heart of winter

All true points, next week is our only legitimate chance in a while, hopefully we get something nice out of it.
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All true points, next week is our only legitimate chance in a while, hopefully we get something nice out of it.

I appreciate the support. While others with very arrogant attitudes (and who have generally whiffed this winter) have knocked those who saw it the other way, this winter has been a testament to the power of the record Nino. Ignoring that fact a month or two ago was really missing the forest for the trees.

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The entire Earth is on fire basically. The anomalies so far this month are blowing past the other months of 2015, which was the warmest year in recorded history.

This Nino has been torturing the cold up north and this pattern. We should be experiencing a rather cold and snowy pattern with the teleconnections but instead we're still AN with no snow to show for it.

This is very telling once things flip unfortunately.

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The entire Earth is on fire basically. The anomalies so far this month are blowing past the other months of 2015, which was the warmest year in recorded history.

This Nino has been torturing the cold up north and this pattern. We should be experiencing a rather cold and snowy pattern with the teleconnections but instead we're still AN with no snow to show for it.

This is very telling once things flip unfortunately.

i am thinking the warmth during the breakdown of this pattern will over perform
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First "threat" this winter to make it down to day 7

7 days is an eternity when it comes to models, but the GFS shows us exactly how to slow things down in a progressive pattern, at least for now there's something else to look forward to besides the warm up.
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Bump. Looks like NASA was spot on. To question their data was a joke.

Excuse me? Wanna try again?

I didnt question NASA, i asked for THEIR DATA. You made a claim and refused to back it up, while i posted data refuting the claim. So...like i said. Try again?

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Your making a call of snowless for the next 75 days wow off the weeklies? Some of you people tend to forget that one well timed vort can drop a foot of snow on us even in a bad pattern. Trusting any long range guidance and proclaiming victory right now is hilarious.

Every month since June the CFS monthlies have shown the next 8 months to be above normal and they have been correct so far, two to go now.  The next 8 months look above normal too.  No  one will care till we get a July that is the analog to this December's pizza oven warmth.

Ordinarily such analog forecasting has a poor track record of 60-70% correct, when it is able to make a statistically meaningful call at all.  Since the super El Nino was King-Kong when it came to setting the NH weather pattern, and the only show in town, it has outperformed itself.  With other factors now competing it should lose it's recent invincibility.

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The Canadian  is a crush job UKMET  JMA  have a day 7 system . I would like to see 2 things before this is nothing more than banter , have the Euro  see it and  get inside 5 days . 

So although really great to look at at 7 days I am way too gun shy about looking for something big . 

 

 

Fast flow is a killer and the models have broken down in just about every event it has shown in Jan .'

The cold did not stick and systems have been too progressive . 

 

Trust me , I see the errors . The cold did not hold . But I still think we manage to get close to N by the 21st and if it snows no one will care what Jan finishes . N + 2 or + 4 . 

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Hmm. Best call so far. A nameless poster that bashes people on wealth status is not doing well.

Heh thought you meant me for a sec since I am a leftist and usually attack the capitalists....but I haven't done it hear so you must be talking about a derivatives trader. But cut him some slack, his reasoning was not unsound and he lost it emotionally one day with another poster. He is normally very good with his analysis; this year has been tough to call and honestly in these parts, a lot of years it would be easy to call for warm and snowless, we had a decade or more like that....we've had a nice run hopefully we get back on track in a season or two.

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