SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 He keeps going by the CFS Nothing up here The CFS has done very well for December and now likely January for its monthly forecast anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not a terrible call, although you're off on the dates, and it won't be 5 above unless you have absolutely insane anomalies the last few days.Unless you get an anomalous lucky blocking pattern in the type of El Niño the winter is dead in the Atlantic coastal plain. And the Nino is pulsing stronger again, may not have peaked. I hope we cash in next week on a small or moderate snow event because it could be a few weeks before another. Feb and march could see significant warmth. In the end we'll all look back at this winter and say hopefully never again. Just dreaded in the east for winter fans. +5 could overshoot, still think it could be close though. If it comes in +3 I'll have failed,but the end of the month could feature those 55/38 days which are +15 in the heart of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Unless you get an anomalous lucky blocking pattern in the type of El Niño the winter is dead in the Atlantic coastal plain. And the Nino is pulsing stronger again, may not have peaked. I hope we cash in next week on a small or moderate snow event because it could be a few weeks before another. Feb and match could see significant warmth. In the end we'll all look back at this winter and say hopefully never again. Just dreaded in the east for winter fans. +5ciuld overshoot, still think it could be close though. If it comes in +3 I'll have failed,but the end of the month could feature those 55/38 days which are +15 in the heart of winter All true points, next week is our only legitimate chance in a while, hopefully we get something nice out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All true points, next week is our only legitimate chance in a while, hopefully we get something nice out of it. I appreciate the support. While others with very arrogant attitudes (and who have generally whiffed this winter) have knocked those who saw it the other way, this winter has been a testament to the power of the record Nino. Ignoring that fact a month or two ago was really missing the forest for the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The entire Earth is on fire basically. The anomalies so far this month are blowing past the other months of 2015, which was the warmest year in recorded history. This Nino has been torturing the cold up north and this pattern. We should be experiencing a rather cold and snowy pattern with the teleconnections but instead we're still AN with no snow to show for it. This is very telling once things flip unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Again a nice setup on the GFS for a storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good thing this wasn't a snow event for you guys, it would've been a bust. Kennedy Airport had 0.33" liquid when models yesterday had much more than that. You need the rain too, which is too bad.anout the same in my area the bigger totals were further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The entire Earth is on fire basically. The anomalies so far this month are blowing past the other months of 2015, which was the warmest year in recorded history. This Nino has been torturing the cold up north and this pattern. We should be experiencing a rather cold and snowy pattern with the teleconnections but instead we're still AN with no snow to show for it. This is very telling once things flip unfortunately. i am thinking the warmth during the breakdown of this pattern will over perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Now 6 .5 days away . UKMET also has it . Look for the Euro to grab this / if it is does and you see this in 2 days then bite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not a terrible call, although you're off on the dates, and it won't be 5 above unless you have absolutely insane anomalies the last few days. Hmm. Best call so far. A nameless poster that bashes people on wealth status is not doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wow, the GFS looks awesome, it has a 988 MB low just off the Delmarva. Let's see if it still shows it by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 MidAtl forum says that the 00z Para Euro is a decent hit for them, does anyone know if it gets far enough north for us or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hmm. Best call so far. A nameless poster that bashes people on wealth status is not doing well. By Jan 21 KNYC will be close to N After that one , If this sticks around will doing just fine kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 First "threat" this winter to make it down to day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This storm could be our only chance of a significant snow event if some LR models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 First "threat" this winter to make it down to day 77 days is an eternity when it comes to models, but the GFS shows us exactly how to slow things down in a progressive pattern, at least for now there's something else to look forward to besides the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Waiting to monday, before even viewing the models. Always seems like 2 days after a model shows a big hit it vanishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 If and big if...we could get a decent storm this week we'd have a shot at normal seasonal snowfall especially on the coast. With that said surprised at the lack of precip lay key with this strong Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Bump. Looks like NASA was spot on. To question their data was a joke.Excuse me? Wanna try again?I didnt question NASA, i asked for THEIR DATA. You made a claim and refused to back it up, while i posted data refuting the claim. So...like i said. Try again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Your making a call of snowless for the next 75 days wow off the weeklies? Some of you people tend to forget that one well timed vort can drop a foot of snow on us even in a bad pattern. Trusting any long range guidance and proclaiming victory right now is hilarious. Every month since June the CFS monthlies have shown the next 8 months to be above normal and they have been correct so far, two to go now. The next 8 months look above normal too. No one will care till we get a July that is the analog to this December's pizza oven warmth. Ordinarily such analog forecasting has a poor track record of 60-70% correct, when it is able to make a statistically meaningful call at all. Since the super El Nino was King-Kong when it came to setting the NH weather pattern, and the only show in town, it has outperformed itself. With other factors now competing it should lose it's recent invincibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The Canadian is a crush job UKMET JMA have a day 7 system . I would like to see 2 things before this is nothing more than banter , have the Euro see it and get inside 5 days . So although really great to look at at 7 days I am way too gun shy about looking for something big . Fast flow is a killer and the models have broken down in just about every event it has shown in Jan .' The cold did not stick and systems have been too progressive . Trust me , I see the errors . The cold did not hold . But I still think we manage to get close to N by the 21st and if it snows no one will care what Jan finishes . N + 2 or + 4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS and Gem both have a hecs for next saturday lol…... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One would think 2.8 would be nearly impossible to beat but we've had other winters lower than that with the exception of a storm or two like 95 or 98 so it could happen1997-98 had 0.5" going into March 20 when we got 5" on the equinox to avoid breaking the seasonal snowfall futility record. Close that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 By Jan 21 KNYC will be close to N After that one , If this sticks around will doing just fine kid. Knew I would hook you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 i would give away a lot to lock up the gfs and gem for saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 1997-98 had 0.5" going into March 20 when we got 5" on the equinox to avoid breaking the seasonal snowfall futility record. Close that year.And if you take out 2/4/95 we had about an inch Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 print it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Knew I would hook you If it snows , you will forgive me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS and Gem both have a hecs for next saturday lol…... Sounds like this storm , 8 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hmm. Best call so far. A nameless poster that bashes people on wealth status is not doing well. Heh thought you meant me for a sec since I am a leftist and usually attack the capitalists....but I haven't done it hear so you must be talking about a derivatives trader. But cut him some slack, his reasoning was not unsound and he lost it emotionally one day with another poster. He is normally very good with his analysis; this year has been tough to call and honestly in these parts, a lot of years it would be easy to call for warm and snowless, we had a decade or more like that....we've had a nice run hopefully we get back on track in a season or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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