NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Check out the 6z GFS lately? Came pretty close to a big storm . Shows a bombing low meandering off the Virginia capes before being shunted out to sea. Moderate snows get into southern Jersey. Check out the 6z GFS lately? Came pretty close to a big storm . Shows a bombing low meandering off the Virginia capes before being shunted out to sea. Moderate snows get into southern Jersey.how many times has the GFS OP past 84 hours led us down a dead end this winter so far ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Check out the 6z GFS lately? Came pretty close to a big storm . Shows a bombing low meandering off the Virginia capes before being shunted out to sea. Moderate snows get into southern Jersey. And? How was I incorrect saying there isn't a clear trend, and the storms showing up OTS? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Multiple models have been showing next weekends threat sporadically. Once we get inside of 108 hours is when we can see if it's a real chance. All the ingredients are there for now. We just need luck and timing. Need the flow to slow down ...........typical Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Check out the 6z GFS lately? Came pretty close to a big storm . Shows a bombing low meandering off the Virginia capes before being shunted out to sea. Moderate snows get into southern Jersey. Let's see ( Next weekend storm guidance thus far) GGEM- showed major snowstorm for multiple days. until now, it's OTS GFS- Showed No storm, then showed a pretty nice hit on Thursdays suites, then showed NO storm, now shows a storm OTS but close EURO- NO storm whatsoever till last nights 00z yet still OTS JMA- BIG storm speaking of models, let's not forget how great the RGEM is suppose to be within 24 hours, and it showed a decent changeover last night for far N+W sections on today's storm, everyone up past Albany was rain...I was told yesterday when I reported the HRRR and RAP were rain that I was wrong, cause they weren't picking up the BL.....I think we're grasping for straws a lot on this forum, and we need a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Let's see ( Next weekend storm guidance thus far) GGEM- showed major snowstorm for multiple days. until now, it's OTS GFS- Showed No storm, then showed a pretty nice hit on Thursdays suites, then showed NO storm, now shows a storm OTS but close EURO- NO storm whatsoever till last nights 00z yet still OTS JMA- BIG storm speaking of models, let's not forget how great the RGEM is suppose to be within 24 hours, and it showed a decent changeover last night for far N+W sections on today's storm, everyone up past Albany was rain...I was told yesterday when I reported the HRRR and RAP were rain that I was wrong, cause they weren't picking up the BL.....I think we're grasping for straws a lot on this forum, and we need a storm Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Let's see ( Next weekend storm guidance thus far) GGEM- showed major snowstorm for multiple days. until now, it's OTS GFS- Showed No storm, then showed a pretty nice hit on Thursdays suites, then showed NO storm, now shows a storm OTS but close EURO- NO storm whatsoever till last nights 00z yet still OTS JMA- BIG storm speaking of models, let's not forget how great the RGEM is suppose to be within 24 hours, and it showed a decent changeover last night for far N+W sections on today's storm, everyone up past Albany was rain...I was told yesterday when I reported the HRRR and RAP were rain that I was wrong, cause they weren't picking up the BL.....I think we're grasping for straws a lot on this forum, and we need a storm Tell you the truth, I don't trust any model this winter. They can't seem to handle the fast progressive nature of this El Nino pattern. It's all about threading the needle. I hate this type of setup but what can you do? There's a potential threat in the LR and that's all you can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CFS Weeklies looking (W2-5) more and more like December >>> off the scale warmth over millions of square miles. A snowless, record warm winter DJF, and you can throw in M too is still very possible. W/O a SSWE the winter is as dead as the Stock Market and the economy is w/o another QE program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CFS Weeklies looking (W2-5) more and more like December >>> off the scale warmth over millions of square miles. A snowless, record warm winter DJF, and you can throw in M too is still very possible. W/O a SSWE the winter is as dead as the Stock Market and the economy is w/o another QE program. Your making a call of snowless for the next 75 days wow off the weeklies? Some of you people tend to forget that one well timed vort can drop a foot of snow on us even in a bad pattern. Trusting any long range guidance and proclaiming victory right now is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Tell you the truth, I don't trust any model this winter. They can't seem to handle the fast progressive nature of this El Nino pattern. It's all about threading the needle. I hate this type of setup but what can you do? There's a potential threat in the LR and that's all you can ask for at this point. After the 40" night before storm that never happened last year, these models are like a cheating Ex that you keep giving another chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 People really forget how long 75 days is. We could torch and not snow til late February them get in a decent pattern and get 15-20" in 2 weeks. I had 20" just in last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CFS Weeklies looking (W2-5) more and more like December >>> off the scale warmth over millions of square miles. A snowless, record warm winter DJF, and you can throw in M too is still very possible. W/O a SSWE the winter is as dead as the Stock Market and the economy is w/o another QE program. People have taken you to task a lot here and truth be told I don't know much about a lot of the jargon thrown out here, but overall you have been right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 People really forget how long 75 days is. We could torch and not snow til late February them get in a decent pattern and get 15-20" in 2 weeks. I had 20" just in last March. We could indeed,but I doubt it.We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 People really forget how long 75 days is. We could torch and not snow til late February them get in a decent pattern and get 15-20" in 2 weeks. I had 20" just in last March. Yeah like 92..but even that winter had some minor events in December and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good thing this wasn't a snow event for you guys, it would've been a bust. Kennedy Airport had 0.33" liquid when models yesterday had much more than that. You need the rain too, which is too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Need the flow to slow down ...........typical Nino We need the flow to slow down for a large event. But with this flow, we could still pull off a 3"-6"/4"-8" Type event. By the way, 12z nam and Rgem now brush the coast tomorrow with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 People have taken you to task a lot here and truth be told I don't know much about a lot of the jargon thrown out here, but overall you have been right He keeps going by the CFS We need the flow to slow down for a large event. But with this flow, we could still pull off a 3"-6"/4"-8" Type event. By the way, 12z nam and Rgem now brush the coast tomorrow with snow. Nothing up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like this winter has a chance to be the least snowy in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like this winter has a chance to be the least snowy in recorded history. That would be 2.8 in 72-73. One of my analogs.Very hard to get less than that.But I wouldn't be surprised if we had 10 inches or less..Still hope for that Feb 83 Blizzard that could really make this winter.Without that,take what you can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That would be 2.8 in 72-73. One of my analogs.Very hard to get less than that.But I wouldn't be surprised if we had 10 inches or less..Still hope for that Feb 83 Blizzard that could really make this winter.Without that,take what you can get One would think 2.8 would be nearly impossible to beat but we've had other winters lower than that with the exception of a storm or two like 95 or 98 so it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One would think 2.8 would be nearly impossible to beat but we've had other winters lower than that with the exception of a storm or two like 95 or 98 so it could happenAll it takes is for one crappy cutoff low in March to give us 2.9 inches and that record will still stand, I wonder what this board would've been like in that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The models all agree on one thing. The Nino heater starting next weekend and beyond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All it takes is for one crappy cutoff low in March to give us 2.9 inches and that record will still stand, I wonder what this board would've been like in that winter I think it was pretty well forecast. We had no snow chances in all of Jan or Feb and even the March snow was a fluke that wasn't even forecast but I'm sure it would have been a 200 page thread as we tried to save winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That would be 2.8 in 72-73. One of my analogs.Very hard to get less than that.But I wouldn't be surprised if we had 10 inches or less..Still hope for that Feb 83 Blizzard that could really make this winter.Without that,take what you can get Yea I agree it will be tough to pull off. Sitting at 0.2 here heading into late January. Really just awful. I dont even have a snow shovel at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Translation; The 22nd might be out only legit chance in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like this winter has a chance to be the least snowy in recorded history. Watch us get a cheap 2 inches in mid March to hinder us from getting rhe record. I honestly think we get one or 2 decwnt storms in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The models all agree on one thing. The Nino heater starting next weekend and beyond... Great call on the winter so far. You have been on top of it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Great call on the winter so far. You have been on top of it so far. By default he'll be right every terrible winter and wrong every good one, the opposite applies to Anthony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 And there it is on the EPS, a complete breakdown. The 20th on look swarmy to say the least. Next weeks cold shot is an island in the sea of warmth. Like has been said though, no significant -NAO in a strong El Niño and you got a problem. Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 BumpNot a terrible call, although you're off on the dates, and it won't be 5 above unless you have absolutely insane anomalies the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Speaking of truth...find that NASA data yet? Bump. Looks like NASA was spot on. To question their data was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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