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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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For those keeping score, NYC is currently 2.5° above normal this January. If the GFS MOS were to verify through 1/20, the remainder of January (1/21-31) would need to average 3.5° below normal for the month to finish at normal. Were the remainder of the month to finish with normal temperatures, January would average 1.3° above normal.

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Just out of curiosity, where do you live? Your forecasts are always higher than ours. Anyways, today and tomorrow will be well above, it's extremely likely now that we will end January with about 2 or so above.

Im in central jersey so my highs always run a little higher..but my lows can run much lower as well

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Staying at 2,000 feet in southern Vermont for the next three days and man is it nice to see snow. About 3" of cement and another 3" of powder. Expecting 3" here at the house tonight and tomorrow and another couple upslope inches later in the weekend. Even more at the mountian.an do I miss snow

im out at breckenridge this week where it's powdery snow coming down at a good clip, not looking forward to seeing my waterlogged yard once I return home tommorow
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We have a general solid consensus now with all ops and ens means showing the Jan 22-23 potential. But, there is also growing consensus to take it off the SE Coast and OTS. 12z Sunday would be a decent time to start tracking as we are still in fantasyland so-to-speak. I would MUCH rather have guidance showing suppression at this range vs a cutter. I will take my chances with this. I dont 'love' where we are at right now one way or the other and still urge people to temper their expectations. 6 days to go so plenty of time for some wild swings and crazy solutions.

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We have a general solid consensus now with all ops and ens means showing the Jan 22-23 potential. But, there is also growing consensus to take it off the SE Coast and OTS. 12z Sunday would be a decent time to start tracking as we are still in fantasyland so-to-speak. I would MUCH rather have guidance showing suppression at this range vs a cutter. I will take my chances with this. I dont 'love' where we are at right now one way or the other and still urge people to temper their expectations. 6 days to go so plenty of time for some wild swings and crazy solutions.

The Euro at hr 168 looked very promising before it scoots ots. It came close to a major phase to my untrained eyes. Deep trough that goes down to the gulf with high pressure in a great place. The problem is the western ridge keeps getting flattened out by all those vorts . It's all about timing. If we can get the western ridge to build, she will come up the coast and it would be a humdinger of a storm. Right now with all these swing and misses thus far my confidence is pretty low. However this potential needs to be watched.

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For those keeping score, NYC is currently 2.5° above normal this January. If the GFS MOS were to verify through 1/20, the remainder of January (1/21-31) would need to average 3.5° below normal for the month to finish at normal. Were the remainder of the month to finish with normal temperatures, January would average 1.3° above normal.

Doesn't look good for all of us that were saying the month will end up below normal - I think we MIGHT be owing an apology to the folks that we were bashing that were predicting above normal( and also below normal snowfall )- time will tell

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