CIK62 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 what do temperatures look like?? Most of the snow is on the 28 not the 23-24 on this GEFS run anyway. The total is only about 4" on the GEFS and the OP runs keep us in a snow dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Most of the snow is on the 28 not the 23-24 on this GEFS run anyway. The total is only about 4" on the GEFS and the OP runs keep us in a snow dryslot.4" on an ens mean in the extended range is actually fairly impressive. Is that for the Jan 22-23 threat or the Jan 28? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Interesting for Monday storm SREF well north and west of 15zhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_051_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160115+21+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 For those keeping score, NYC is currently 2.5° above normal this January. If the GFS MOS were to verify through 1/20, the remainder of January (1/21-31) would need to average 3.5° below normal for the month to finish at normal. Were the remainder of the month to finish with normal temperatures, January would average 1.3° above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just out of curiosity, where do you live? Your forecasts are always higher than ours. Anyways, today and tomorrow will be well above, it's extremely likely now that we will end January with about 2 or so above. Im in central jersey so my highs always run a little higher..but my lows can run much lower as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Staying at 2,000 feet in southern Vermont for the next three days and man is it nice to see snow. About 3" of cement and another 3" of powder. Expecting 3" here at the house tonight and tomorrow and another couple upslope inches later in the weekend. Even more at the mountian.an do I miss snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Staying at 2,000 feet in southern Vermont for the next three days and man is it nice to see snow. About 3" of cement and another 3" of powder. Expecting 3" here at the house tonight and tomorrow and another couple upslope inches later in the weekend. Even more at the mountian.an do I miss snowim out at breckenridge this week where it's powdery snow coming down at a good clip, not looking forward to seeing my waterlogged yard once I return home tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Talk about a gfs tease lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS is a near miss for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Let's hope the king at least shows the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS and GGEM are OTS with next weekends storm. Another day, another solution. Another 7 days to go lol. Let's hope the king at least shows the storm It hasn't so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS and GGEM are OTS with next weekends storm. Another day, another solution. Another 7 days to go lol. It hasn't so far I thought earlier today you were convinced next weekends storm was a lock lol. Just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The GFS at 0z is now seeing the warmup the EPS has been touting in the 11 to 15 . There is a really good chance that another warm up arrives between the 25th thru the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The GFS at 0z is now seeing the warmup the EPS has been touting in the 11 to 15 . There is a really good chance that another warm up arrives between the 25th thru the 5th. Yep. It might be a while until we see snow if we don't see snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 tidbits website crashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 euro looks great for next weekend. Even if it pushes it ots I think we are in a great position this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 euro ots, at least now it shows the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 tidbits website crashedLol.. You would think we were in for something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 euro ots, at least now it shows the stormagreed this far out forget the details look for signals ..by tue oz suite hopefully details more clear ..we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 We have a general solid consensus now with all ops and ens means showing the Jan 22-23 potential. But, there is also growing consensus to take it off the SE Coast and OTS. 12z Sunday would be a decent time to start tracking as we are still in fantasyland so-to-speak. I would MUCH rather have guidance showing suppression at this range vs a cutter. I will take my chances with this. I dont 'love' where we are at right now one way or the other and still urge people to temper their expectations. 6 days to go so plenty of time for some wild swings and crazy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 We have a general solid consensus now with all ops and ens means showing the Jan 22-23 potential. But, there is also growing consensus to take it off the SE Coast and OTS. 12z Sunday would be a decent time to start tracking as we are still in fantasyland so-to-speak. I would MUCH rather have guidance showing suppression at this range vs a cutter. I will take my chances with this. I dont 'love' where we are at right now one way or the other and still urge people to temper their expectations. 6 days to go so plenty of time for some wild swings and crazy solutions. The Euro at hr 168 looked very promising before it scoots ots. It came close to a major phase to my untrained eyes. Deep trough that goes down to the gulf with high pressure in a great place. The problem is the western ridge keeps getting flattened out by all those vorts . It's all about timing. If we can get the western ridge to build, she will come up the coast and it would be a humdinger of a storm. Right now with all these swing and misses thus far my confidence is pretty low. However this potential needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's sad that we're excited for an OTS solution on all models, with zero trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Raining at 2,000 feet in Vermont. This is officially the worst winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 euro looks great for next weekend. Even if it pushes it ots I think we are in a great position this far out great ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Raining at 2,000 feet in Vermont. This is officially the worst winter You should get a changeover I would think. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 For those keeping score, NYC is currently 2.5° above normal this January. If the GFS MOS were to verify through 1/20, the remainder of January (1/21-31) would need to average 3.5° below normal for the month to finish at normal. Were the remainder of the month to finish with normal temperatures, January would average 1.3° above normal. Doesn't look good for all of us that were saying the month will end up below normal - I think we MIGHT be owing an apology to the folks that we were bashing that were predicting above normal( and also below normal snowfall )- time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's sad that we're excited for an OTS solution on all models, with zero trend Who is excited? Seems most people are optimistic but cautious with their optimism. As for trends, look for them starting 0Z Monday at earliest....still way too early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 great ???? Next weekend is our best shot of the season by far. After that, winter is likely over. Next weekend has a decent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's sad that we're excited for an OTS solution on all models, with zero trend Check out the 6z GFS lately? Came pretty close to a big storm . Shows a bombing low meandering off the Virginia capes before being shunted out to sea. Moderate snows get into southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Multiple models have been showing next weekends threat sporadically. Once we get inside of 108 hours is when we can see if it's a real chance. All the ingredients are there for now. We just need luck and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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