WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A quick note... Previously, I expected a colder pattern to lock in around mid-month +/- a few days following a variable period of alternating warm and cold anomalies for the first half of January. Given the MJO and forecast SOI (really corroborating one another), I now expect to be wrong about the cold locking in. Instead, it appears that warmth and cold will continue to alternate for the time being. This won't be a December 2015-style disaster, but it won't be a gem like late January 1966 either. The GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles (which, at first glance, seem to try to break down the AO- by 240 hours) point toward a growing risk of a period of more sustained warmth as the month nears an end. That outcome would also be consistent with an MJO in Phases 2 or 3 during strong El Niño events during the 1/15-2/15 timeframe. Ironically, February 2-15, 1998 featured an AO-/PNA+, yet wound up warmer than normal during MJO Phases 2 and 3. These points only cover the remainder of January and refer largely to temperature anomalies. I still think February could be blocky with opportunities for snow and cold. However, I believe that idea is more uncertain than typical for El Niño and blocking climatology. I'm sure all here would agree that long range weather forecasting is complex, humbling and there is more to learn about the telecommunications. I appreciate those that attempt to analyze the current El Nino and other indexes, variables which could bring cold and snowy weather yet to NYC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Nice signal. Warm verbatim but seems suspect with strengthening HP in a good position in SE Canada. Fun times ahead! You want a high just north of New England, not sliding east over Labrador... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You want a high just north of New England, not sliding east over Labrador... Gfs just went from squashed to this. Every model except the euro shows a coastal. Good signal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How did we manage to get rain with that evolution? If this cuts off the like the GFS has it I give up, I don't know how many 980 mb storms in ideal locations giving us rain I can handle. 180 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 180 hours out I know, it's just ironic. It has a pretty good look post day 10 as well, that is a pretty meh and short lived warm up if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You want a high just north of New England, not sliding east over Labrador... Agreed BUT it slides East pretty much after the fact. Not a perfect position but signal for a big storm and the fact models keep showing some form of HP to the North of the LP is good for now. Obviously if it has the same warm look middle of next week, it's not good. But at this range, this is about all you can ask for in terms of a potential storm D6-D7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Gfs just went from squashed to this. Every model except the euro shows a coastal. Good signal to me. Let's get something inside 120 hours. Then we could maybe get a little excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't get too invested outside 5 days let me guidance show you consistency. That said you are going to need this one work to prevent bridge jumping. The torch cometh Jan 25 -5 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't get too invested outside 5 days let me guidance show you consistency. That said you are going to need this one work to prevent bridge jumping. The torch cometh Jan 25 -5 . Check out the GFS @ 312, that would be a pretty good way to run a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There's more to weather then snow. Snow season around here is maybe 15 weeks long if that, and even the snowiest Winters have slowdowns and warmups. I made that post for the weenies. To be honest, I'm really interested in seeing the rain bands with this one since it might be a slightly warm core system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 gefs now on board for next weekend. Low just inside the benchmark.Euro is now the only model not showing a storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 gefs now on board for next weekend. Low just inside the benchmark.Euro is now the only model not showing a storm next weekendwhat do temperatures look like?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 what do temperatures look like?? Cold on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 gefs now on board for next weekend. Low just inside the benchmark.Euro is now the only model not showing a storm next weekend The Euro has really been awful. It's somewhat mind blowing. The GFS basically schooled it on the low crossing the SE this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Navgem and jma show big snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Navgem and jma show big snowstormsI admittedly dislike using the JMA at all. However, this sure makes for good wallpaper for the pc lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 How did we manage to get rain with that evolution? If this cuts off the like the GFS has it I give up, I don't know how many 980 mb storms in ideal locations giving us rain I can handle. I think DT stated in his discussion earlier about this storm that you don't want the 500 low cutting off or closing so soon as it allows too much warm air to move into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Don't get too invested outside 5 days let me guidance show you consistency. That said you are going to need this one work to prevent bridge jumping. The torch cometh Jan 25 -5 . U think pattern will b better past the 5th, or just too early to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Agreed. Just posted because of all the people jumping on every possible threat. You know, I'm a fan of snow, but I'm also a pretty big fan of severe weather. And I can tell you this; I wouldn't give any severe threat (even if it's part of a pattern producing 3000 Joules with 60 kt shear and lapse rates in the 7s every day for a week) much thought until pretty much the day before. Now, I know that the two are not very comparable because of how localized convection is, but still, with the all the desperation around here, it seems like snow is almost approaching severe thunderstorm status, at least for us in the city. Many people here don't take day +5 severe threats, even in a perfect pattern, very seriously, and I think that same mindset is quite warranted now given the kind of winter we're in (regardless of pattern potential). Can't understand the severe weather thing, I mean, No me gusto...snow is one thing but I could do without having the bejesus scared outta me by thunderstorms and wind events that threaten to bring trees down on my house. I am thankful I Iive in the metro area which has relatively mild weather. Had a small derecho I think back in Aug 98 and it was truly terrifying to behold. Maybe it was just a bad storm but someone told me it was this derecho thingy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 How did we manage to get rain with that evolution? If this cuts off the like the GFS has it I give up, I don't know how many 980 mb storms in ideal locations giving us rain I can handle. I hear same thing happened on last super nino 97 98. Great tracks but mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Navgem and jma show big snowstormsAlways a plus to have the Navgem and JMA on board with the 18z GFS. That is a great trio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Radar looks good for tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I hear same thing happened on last super nino 97 98. Great tracks but mostly rain. Yes, only one small event in March and the road crews didn't bother to salt so I slid my truck into a curb and broke my axle. And it really didn't snow of any consequence again until Dec 31 2000. So buckle up it could be a mild ride...for years....this is always in the back of my mind, cause darn remove a couple years and what a run we've had.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Always a plus to have the Navgem and JMA on board with the 18z GFS. That is a great trioUnless there's consistency and the big boys are on board AND it's under 5 days then it's more or less fantasy.However some sort of storm wouldn't surprise me due to a shift in the pattern upstream. Forky is winning the battle right now and based on where we are headed for the rest of January, the month is likely to finish with a + anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 for a rain storm it does have a high pressure system up in Canada which is what we would need if the storm trended to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Always a plus to have the Navgem and JMA on board with the 18z GFS. That is a great trioGet within 84 hours and throw in the CRAS model as well and its a lock ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 for a rain storm That isnt the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That isnt the gefs. yes my mistake I deleted the original post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Always a plus to have the Navgem and JMA on board with the 18z GFS. That is a great trio Can we try to let the weenies be happy about something for a night? It's the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 yes my mistake I deleted the original post18z gefs markedly colder. 2m freeze line is within 20 miles of phl and nyc. Not that it matters at this range. Point is, it is MUCH colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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